Sunday, June 10, 2018

The Future Housing Crash In Kalifornia

If you are a veteran and want to live in California or have been living there for years as a homeowner, boy, do we have a deal for you. California veterans are entitled to buy a home up to $649,999 dollars with no money down. At present interest rates, that's about a $3,000 a month payment.

My wife and I bought our home for about 500k and put 50k down for a down payment about 18 months ago. We have been getting 3 to 10 letters a week like the one below to refinance our mortgage and drag out another 100K in cash.



Something is wrong here, this refinancing with nothing down as a veteran is insane. The 10 solicitations a week to refinance our home loan sounds like an exaggeration of what we are receiving in the mail but it isn’t. Back in 2005 I wrote Greenspan a letter about the abuses in the real estate market and got a form letter back and these were published in my blog back in Aug 28, 2009. Here is a Link


You have to wonder why a lender would want to give any VA home owner all of the equity in their home including the appreciation. I am still trying to figure out why they wrote me a thirty year loan at the age of 70 , I'll be a hundred years old when I pay it off.


Saturday, May 26, 2018

What Happens When Natural Laws of Expectations are Turned Upside Down?

Have you noticed lately that there is a short supply of available housing inventory and a large number of homeless people?

If interest rates were to increase to the level of inflation, say six percent, you’d see a severe drop in the price of housing. This would drop property taxes, and most of the time those future tax dollars have already been spent by the municipality.

In California now, I would guess that the average 4-person home now has 8 people living in it. Basically, when you double the price of housing, over a large area, you double the occupancy rate. The first time we saw that effect was in the 1960’s, it went unnoticed. Dad worked and mom took care of the kids. Later women went to work and the kids took care of themselves. At that point we had two wage earners financing a home. Now in today’s world, we have mom and dad working, and now the kids living at home as adults working to make ends meet.

Politicians don’t really reflect upon the laws passed and see how ineffiective they are. The free needle program might have stopped some disease, but now the casual stroller can be stabbed by a discarded needle while walking. People are “starving” and need to be fed. Human waste on the sidewalks is a big step above dog crap. Now we have hepatitis to worry about also.

At some point California needs to address the problem. Our national parks have a solution; they put up signs that say “Do not feed the wild animals.” We need to move the homeless into a controlled area for about 10 days that restricts their access to drugs and booze with no ability to pan handle for money. The people that just want to get high, would leave the area, confinement is a threat to their way of life. Those left would be the ones for rehabilitation.

California wants to make small homes for the homeless. A noble idea, but why? I pay taxes and expect fire and police protection. Why do these people that contribute nothing to the tax base, get a free home because they are homeless?

The real story about California is the number of people living in each home. Some streets are so packed with cars at night that they look like used car lots and remember each home has a driveway and a two-car garage (in the front of the house no less). So that’s parking for 4 cars.

So, the question in the title “What Happens When Natural Laws of Expectations are Turned Upside Down?” You learn to expect less and pay a lot more for it. And when you run out of money paying taxes, you’ll be entitled to a Gov. Jerry Brown "Free Shopping Cart," and will be inducted into the "Fraternal order of the Homeless." The only bad thing as far as liberals are concerned, is that there are no graduation ceremonies---go figure.

Tuesday, May 01, 2018

Free Trade A Bridge Too Far

Everyone appears upset over the possible tariffs being proposed by Trump. The demand is for free trade. There is one problem with the concept. The minimum wage is not the same worldwide - - $68 dollars a month in Bangladesh or $321 dollars a month in China. How about Mexico at $3.48 a day and a 48-hour work week.

If you are a manufacturer in the US, and something is labor intensive; where will you eventually be forced to relocate? Three things happen when you move off shore; labor costs are lower, lawsuits for product liability drop dramatically and taxes drop to relatively low levels. The manufacture that moves to say, China is no longer a manufacturer paying taxes in this country, he is now an importer that pays taxes on his mark up from the foreign production location.

On an individual level, we examine our location and environment and make decisions as to what is the best monetary return for our family unit. An awful lot of what goes into the decision revolves around government regulations. If you have acquired wealth, you obey government regulations if you have none, government regulations be damned.

To tie this all together, government tariffs can be a leveling force, on an economic level, for trade between countries. Let’s hope this works

Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Liberals Verses Limited Resources

If everyone in the world was enabled to live as we do in the advanced world, there would be one problem. Not enough resources to go around.

On the other side, have you noticed that with Liberals, there is a solution to any problem that faces mankind?

We often point to the bottle with a banana inside and a few fruit flies with a cork in it. Lets just take a city like Los Angeles. How many days would it take to evacuate the city if everyone was ordered to leave? Answer, about 8 to 10 days if fuel trucks could continue deliveries. Or how many days could you survive in Los Angeles if it was not being supplied with food? Maybe 20 to 30 days. How far will a tank of gas take you if the roads are jammed with stalled cars? How many people might all of a sudden want to shop at your home for food to eat?

We don’t think about things like this. But it could happen from several different corridors. A massive bank failure could paralyze food deliveries nationwide. Why would a truck driver, drive a load of food from NY to LA, if he had no way to be paid? A massive power outage could limit communications for several years. There is only one company in the US making power transformers and I am told it would take 20 years to replace them all. One good solar flare and we are back in the dark ages again.

We have reached certain limits of supply, that demand things continue in a normal fashion, for our standard of living to continue uninterrupted without glitches. The average liberal has no idea of what logistics is all about. Unlimited Government funding, ready access to fuel, food, water, and housing are assumed as a given, for any area. But what if they aren’t? Reality will set the tone. Three fourths of the world cannot afford political philosophies like Liberalism in their daily life, dreams don’t pay the bills.

We as a nation need to comprehend that our consumption of resources is so intense, that there is no way we can offer this life style to the rest of the world. The reason being, our standard of living must drop to accommodate them.

Liberals don’t realize is that most problems without any help, work themselves out very successfully given time. You still have the flask; the banana is gone and fruit flies are all dead. Funny how global warming was the perceived problem when in reality it has always been overpopulation.

Our national debt just hit 21 trillion dollars. Has anyone bothered to ask, who the government borrowed the money from? The answer is they borrowed it from banks and retirement funds. They borrowed it from people who saved money. If you are worried, talk to a Liberal to calm your nerves. Everything is under control. That last straw to break the camels back is probably years away. Probably while you are retired enjoying the good life.

The Liberals are going to give this country away, and I haven’t figured out who they are going to give it to yet. But I do know, if you if you are approaching retirement, a decent shopping cart to store your belongings in is highly desirable; now might be a good time to start looking for one.

Tuesday, March 06, 2018

Economics a Flawed “Science”

Trump just issued import quotas on Steel and Aluminum. And then you hear the press talk about trade wars and I am mentally reviewing my 3 semesters of advanced economics. I kind of nod my head but then I remember back to the birth of this country, up to World war I and reflect that tariffs are what funded the Federal Government.

I’ve looked at several economic models and the theory behind them and often marveled at what is holding these bubbles up in place. You throw up you hands and throw in the towel, what makes sense shouldn’t and what shouldn’t violate the models.

Somebody once said that Astrology was made a science so that they could also include economics as a science. If you think about it, economic theory is almost 99% an explanation of what went wrong and why during financial and economic collapses. It in no way explains where we are right now.

A trade war has economic implications that in most cases is undesired. At the same time, a country’s inability to produce steel to support a war could lead to it being conquered by a country with a large steel base. Our country has literally trashed steel production as a part of GDP. Remember Bethlehem Steel or US Steel? They built the ships that won World War II.

Any way we look at all of these economic revelations, is the assumption that tariffs will ruin trade. We have been turning a blind eye to the blatant trade violations of the rest of the world. Right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that probably the USA is the largest consumer of Chinese dry wall in the world and the trouble is, it isn’t dry wall that we are buying, but prescription drugs stuffed full of calcium sulfate dehydrate (gypsum). You buy a Fram oil filter and the name is miss spelled or the directions make absolutely no sense.

We hear that Europe will ban blue jeans and Jim Beam Kentucky bourbon. Why don’t we just set 1000 BMW’s and 1000 US Cars in a group and say you can import 1 to 1. And of course, you cannot forget the VAT tax. Net result, our cars and theirs will not sell.

The net thing we need to realize is that over the long haul of history, economic theory works. The trouble is over the short term is that it is abused to create a desired outcome that can have very bad consequences in the future. It has been glossed over for the last 30 years.

The science of Economics is not exact. It can only judge the past. It’s a mistake to try to use it to portend the future.

Let’s back off and give President Trump his earned 4 years to do his magic –economic theory be damned.

Monday, March 05, 2018

Gun Ownership

You want to buy a gun. Well by god, you had better fill out all of the required paper work and go through a background check. And then you get the gun of your choice. Everyone upon turning legal age, has the right to purchase a weapon if they have not yet committed a crime.

Of course, if your dad bought a gun or two, the kids don’t need to register to get their hands on the weapon if they want to use it.

If Grandpa dies with several nice weapons, grandma could sell them to a gun dealer at about 20 cents on the dollar or go out and find friends of her husband that would want to own them at a reasonable price. The unrealized condition here is that this gun is worth far more money to any gun purchaser because it is untraceable at this point.

The real problem I see is a rifle that can shoot more than 6 rounds. If you are stupid enough to unleash 20 rounds at neighbors during civil unrest, guess what they will do? They will burn your house down with you in it. Shotguns tend to more of a deterrent to violence, for the main reason, you don’t have to be a good shot, you’ll rarely discharge it.

I wonder how many of the gun records show people over the age of 100 still owning guns? Kind of makes you wonder what happens to those guns after the person dies. It looks like the kids inherit the weapons. Sadly, there is nothing the state can do to control the passage of guns to next of kin at death.

I would be for banning hand guns. A couple of drinks and you could end up in jail for life. Same for Assault rifles. Our youth tends to learn this the hard way. But shotguns and regular rifles for hunting game with up to a six-load magazine capacity seem acceptable for just about anyone I can think of.

Two things we need to look at. Why do we need semi-automatic rifles? Animals do not shoot back. And second, if you missed it with the firsts shot, does that mean the target may shoot back? If the answer is yes, then you can pretty well determine that the hunter and the hunted were both human. That’s why some shooters need the better rifle and more ammunition. More ammunition takes into account that they are a piss poor shot. The big lesson overlooked here, this shooter is someone who wants enough ammunition that they can kill you after you run out of ammunition. Not sure how you weed this person out of society.

The sad thing to realized is that there is no real effective legislative control of the gun user.

I do think that there should be a move to eliminate military ammunition that can be used in rifles and get rid of clip loading rifles. None of us that buys a gun to protect our family wants a round that will go through two homes before it stops.

What we need to define is Military and Civilian weapons, they are not one and the same. And of course, I have always defined our right to bear arms as those that were in effect in 1789. Ever try to hold up a store with a flint lock pistol?

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

DisUnity in the U.S.

The DACA’s in this country want legal status, and neither the Republicans or the Democrats can come to an agreement. When the Democrats had both houses, Obama failed to address the issue. The same is true with the Republicans in power.

Neither side wants the party in power to get credit for anything. It is not a matter of whether it is good for the country. The minority party wants the party in power to fail in their platform promises to the voters. It’s all about votes.

On TV, put two opposing views on camera at the same time, its like dropping a cat and a dog into a potato sack, the results are predictable.

The Russians have been accused of messing around with our elections, and it is almost laughable. They were not interested in who won the election, they just wanted to create more disharmony with our institutions and the voters. That is pretty light weight stuff, considering what Hollywood and CNN are doing. When everyone was so positive that the Russian had interfered with the election I was mystified. What were they doing? Now we know, real stupid stuff that most people didn’t give a damn about.

We have half of the population mixing illegal immigrants with legal and considering them one group that want, open borders. The other group wants to get rid of the illegal ones but they are considered racists for their beliefs. The fact that some countries are considered “Shit Holes,” strikes a chord of “how dare anyone be politically incorrect?” Building a wall seems a tad bit logical in addressing the problem

The same mess with gun control, only this group isn’t split along the same lines as the immigrant problem. The false assumption is that government can by passing laws, control the problem. Criminals do not buy their guns at gun stores. They look for an NRA sticker on your pick up or something similar and visit your home while you are at work. Passing laws against legally buying a gun might stop some people, from a purchase, but seldom discourage a person who wanted one. The real problem with guns that is never mentioned is alcohol. Mix the two and you could end up in jail forever for doing something extremely stupid. Revenge is satisfying for a fleeting moment, but once the finality of your actions are realized, it is too late to do anything to change it back.

In this country some people expect government to protect every aspect of their life and others in a like manner, want government to leave them alone. Harmony is balance of the two. IMHO the Democrats and Obama went too far, and now they are more than sore losers, they are sore haters. And surprisingly the news media went with them. Now we have an abstract label for it called the “Deep State.” Also, another abstract label is “the far left” which is inclusive of our educational institutions. And then there is just very general vulgar name calling of our President. A complete lack of respect for the office.

It’s a sad time for our country, if you cannot show respect, you deserve none yourself. Respect for other people’s beliefs, dreams and Ideal as well as respect for our leaders is expected. It’s the fiber that holds this nation together.

The lecture is over, it looks as if the economy is improving. We are moving out of The Great Depression II (I hope).

Saturday, February 17, 2018

Our sick baby dog survives with help from my wife

Not much on Economics and death and destruction for the week. Hopefully our success in helping our small dog "Lucky" survive may entertain and possibly help save someone else’s pet.

We got a small sheltie dog in September and he was doing OK for a few weeks. We were feeding him canned dog food and he loved it. And then the pup stopped eating. When we got him, he was almost 2 pounds at 8 weeks. All of a sudden, he stopped eating and had diarrhea and started going downhill. We would feed him a bunch of ham and he would throw it up two hours later. We gave him back to the breeder for a week and he could do nothing with the mother in the cage. We took him back and he kept losing more weight. He got down to 1 lb 4 oz and we took him in to the vet for an IV and he perked up a bit. The next day he was staggering so we had the vet give him a subcutaneous injection under the skin and that kind of picked him up a bit. My wife and I were going nuts watching the dog die. I went down and bought some Gerber’s baby food and if I remember, it was puree chicken and a can of sweet potatoes. We mixed it together with goat’s milk and the dog wouldn’t touch it. My wife decided to force feed the dog with a small syringe forcing his mouth open. We gave the little devil about 9 mls every 4 hours round the clock. After 4 days, he started eating the gruel we were forcing him to eat.



Needless to say, he was a Gerber baby for the next three months, about the fourth month we got him to start eating kibbles. He is six pounds now. He can chew the shoe laces off a pair of sneakers in two hours.

I kind of just threw this out there, my root canal article from several years ago, still has people adding their comments to it and maybe this may help someone else in the same situation, with a pet that needs help. This may be the info they need.

Lucky says "ARF" "ARF"

Monday, January 15, 2018

The Hyperbolic Moral Indignation of the Democrats Towards President Trump

I cannot understand the fiery rage of Democrats over the Trump election. I had no rage over Obama being elected. I didn’t like what he did, but I didn’t stand on a street corner denouncing him with every Anglo-Saxon curse word in the books, for a whole year.

Trump’s rescinding of previous Presidential directives has given new life to areas of our economy that were over regulated by the EPA. Southern ranchers stood up to the EPA for new grazing charges for range land that they had used for over a 100 years. The judge just recently threw the charges out that the bureaucrats at the EPA tried to enforce. Most people don’t understand that most of our laws are created by some bureaucrat working in an agency. Whether it is just or unjust has to be determined by a court of law. As we all know, that can take a lot of time and money. This person in that office, has all of the resources at their command to enforce the laws it created.

Trump is not really a politician. But that is a good thing. BS is not something that you want to push with him. The country is starting to move in a positive direction. Most of the media will belittle that fact and magnify Trumps latest impropriety. Many of the TV channels devoted to the Democrats have been magnifying what they perceive as Trumps ineptitude.

I kind of get the feeling that the Democrats don’t believe the election is over yet. By hook or by crook, they want a Democrat in the White House. Trump has not violated any laws and is being called names that are so school-yard-ish, that they are laughable. The Republicans won the Presidency, and are being punished for winning. The Democrats in both houses oppose any legislation that was part of the Republican platform for election. The move by Democrats to impeach Trump for winning the election smacks of treason.

Many people in the US today have a very absurd interpretation of what Democracy is. “I can do what I want and other people be damned,” or “I can protest until I get my way.” It just doesn’t work that way. Democracy is like a woven cloth or a team of horses with a shared purpose.

The basics of compromise that kept the country running efficiently are gone. 20 trillion in debt, the Pied Piper could present his bill at any time and “we the people,” cannot pay it. I think this is why many Congressmen are quitting, they see the handwriting on the wall. The shear frustration of the stubbornness in Congress; “my way or the highway,” or the phone call threats on their families.

Trump’s has informed the Democrats that the Socialism orgy is over and I’m sure they are not happy. The Democrat's platform appears to be for big business, big money and Socialism for the masses. Trump on the other hand, is for the guy on the street and jobs. Somewhere, Somehow, the two parties switched political platforms. The press has called President Trump every name in the book except one; “A filthy rich Democrat with a knock out wife.” IMHO he is one—his only flaw, he lacks the corruption baggage. I believe he wants to go down in history as a pragmatist that solved quite a few problems. Let’s see if he will be given the chance.