The Calm Before The Storm

For the last month or two the world has been on pause. The Greek crisis is still there, Portugal is closing in on BK, and there is a solution being worked out. Deadlines come and go and still no real solution.

FHA, which is about to join Fannie and Freddie in bankruptcy, is still offering great home deals; a friend of ours is buying a 555K home with a 3 ½ percent down payment out here in California. A coworker yesterday showed me a 343K REO home that he was bidding on. It was offered by the bank and since there are 5 other bidders, he’s bidding 383K on it. If it was me, I would have bid 300K and if I didn’t get it, I’d bid on the next one. The only trouble is, very few Realtors want that sort of a client. You’ll be considered a waste of time.

The housing market in California is in the dumpster and everyone is oblivious to it. Prices have dropped enough that buyers think they are getting the deal of a lifetime. There is no panic, just a lot of unexplained burnt lawns and lock boxes hanging on front doors. Interest rates are at an all-time low. All the consumer is interested in is; can I afford the monthly payment? No fear yet, we have yet to hit the lows where panic selling begins.

The real thing to look at is the cost of money. When interest rates are low, the banks are flush with cash and no one to loan it to (or the buyer can’t qualify for a loan). When this happens, commodities take off like a rocket. Futures in gold, oil, wheat and etc. are determined by interest rates. The price of a commodity on the spot market determines the price in the futures market. So if gold is at $1600 an ounce spot, a 100 oz. future 1 year out would be spot plus interest on the value of the spot price for one year on 100ozs. So if the interest rate was 5%, 100 oz. for a year, the premium would be at least $8,000 for the contract. So with very low interest rates, it becomes very profitable to dabble in commodities that are in an upward trend.

Banks are paying zip for interest right now. And the odd thing, there is a very small spread between AAA and DDD bonds. In normal times you could see a spread of 12%. Well with the Federal Reserve guaranteeing everything, there is no risk so Triple D only raises eyebrows when it’s a bra size. The silver foxes are trying to maximize their retirement interest income with high risk investments that have very poor returns for the risk taken. We have speculators playing the commodities and stock markets. All because of very low interest rates.

With the calm before the storm, there are only two real games in town, the stock market and the futures market. As long as we have very low interest rates, look for the markets to go up. Many investors will realize that dollars in the bank are returning nothing and this will be the new sand box to play in. In the end, it plays out like the river boat in India where two star crossed lovers decided to commit suicide rather than be separated. Everyone rushed to one side of the boat to view the event and the boat capsized killing hundreds.

The mess we are facing has a high user confidence level, “I can avoid catastrophe, I know what I am doing.” It’s a little like being the driver facing a head on collision with another driver. You’re confident you can avoid the crash. You both try to turn out of the other cars path. The funny thing is, you both turn in the same direction— away from danger, to where the other car isn't, but will soon be.

The Tea Leaves Are Misleading

Unemployment is down or just maybe these people have exhausted their benefits and dropped off of the statistical charts. Consumption has picked up and maybe for the wrong reasons; immediate gratification feels better than the savings rate reward of one percent interest offered by the banks. You want to put something on your credit card, go ahead buy the Wide screen TV and pay 28% interest on the unpaid balance. Want to buy a car, there are fog a mirror loans everywhere, but the interest rates can be a little dicey.

The real question is what do we do with all of the people that were associated with the housing industry? Getting a job after being on unemployment for two years is not an easy task. At that point, reality and frustration become a part of your day to day existence. Unemployed and no job? Go to college or trade school and get that degree with government loans. If you are 62 or over consider early retirement.

Want to buy a home and finance it through a bank? Your name had better be John D Rockefeller or JP Morgan Warren Buffet or Bill Gates. The 20 percent down mortgage is still available. Nobody had 20% to put down in the bubble years and of course everyone that ever wanted a house bought one or two. Now it’s a real effort to sell a home. Of course Fannie and Freddie are still selling homes. Rumor has it; your signature is all the down payment you need.

The number of foreclosures entering the market this year range from one to three million depending on the source. Then there is also the phantom shadow inventory. If you talk to a Realtor, now’s a really good time to buy a house (loosely translated, “I haven’t had a sale in two years, am starving and six payments behind on my Mercedes”). Of course if you planned on selling your home and ease into retirement in style, things have changed a tad.

Our government didn’t save for that rainy day and now Congress can’t even pass a budget. The argument centers around, “Can we spend what we don’t have?” The Democrats say "yes" and the Republicans say "no."

We have an election coming up and the Republicans have the solution, “Try anyone but Obama.” How either party can increase the number of private sector jobs defies all logic. Governments consume taxes; they don’t build anything for consumption.

The stock market continues to go up, our retirement investments are secure, the banking system will not collapse and the housing market is as solid as a rock;>) Our present predicament, kind of reminds me of the one legged man who sold his crutches. As long as he likes where he is standing, there is no problem.

Real Estate Investment Musings

There is a lot about simple finance that ought to be taught in high school, but it isn’t. It irritates me to hear the phrase “paying rent is throwing your money away.” That phrase has sold a lot of real estate in California when in actuality renting in our area is cheaper than owning.

The basic thing that never enters the question on home ownership is the cost of money. You borrow money to buy a home from the bank. After 20 years the home is paid off and you have no more payments, Right??? You’re wrong. Take a paid off home financed for 200K. Figure interest rates at 6% not the ridiculous current 2 percent. The interest generated by 200k at 6 percent is about $12,000 a year. This is what a paid off homeowner’s hidden costs are. The cash in his home is not paying him $12,000 a year, that’s his cost of ownership plus $2,000 in taxes plus about $2,000 in upkeep. So the paid up home owner is paying about $16,000 a year for the privilege of living in that home. Divide that by 12 and you get monthly “rent” payments of about $1334 a month. Everybody pays rent.

40 years ago you might have heard the phrase, “A home is the most worthless investment you will ever make, but a necessary one.” The reason being, it was a savings plan for young people starting a family and a long term hedge against inflation. Plus it had always been cheaper to own a home than to rent. Renters paid more for the freedom to pick up and move. The real estate bubble trashed that well tested concept and replaced it with two new ones, “Real estate always goes up,” and “Buy now before you get priced out of the market.” Everyone that ever wanted a home bought one and now this bubble has collapsed leaving our government (you and me) holding the bag.

Rental real estate may again become a viable investment option in certain parts of the country. A single family home purchased for 100 times its monthly rental, should have a very nice return. For investor owned real estate, the banks want 20 percent down. A 100k home, that can be rented for $1,000 a month, will cash flow nicely. Figure a down payment of 20k plus 6k in closing. If bought right, you could take $200 a month off the top for 20 years and then after that, you’d get a retirement check of $1,000 a month as long as you own the house. One thing to realize, landlords don’t set rental rates, the market does—the higher the rate, the more months the unit sets vacant.

Don’t go to Las Vegas and buy a home in one of those 4,000 house developments that has only 4 families living in it. The current tenants are probably busy recycling the copper and appliances out of the other 3,996 homes.

Fannie and Freddie ought to be offering some good deals in the coming year. The extra dollars they give you for buying a stripped out house, you can shop Craig’s List and buy back the water heater, furnace and dishwasher.

Cash held in the bank right now is taking a real beating. As a rule of thumb, a home is the equivalent of 150 ounces of gold. Not only that, it provides shelter, is a hedge against inflation and the banks will loan you 80% of its value as an investor, more if you decide to live in it. Maybe the investment tip for the New Year is; “Buy and hold things the government can’t print.”

So in the coming year if you have an extra 25k rotting in the bank, do you buy a new car or dabble in a rental? In 10 years, your wheels will then be worth $500 or you could have had 50k in tax deductions depreciating your rental. A lot of people in this country work full time for the car industry without even knowing it. So investing 20K and waiting 20 years, do you have the time to spare? At age 65 I keep asking myself, why didn’t I buy two instead of just one when I had the time?

Common Sense Revolves Around Our Perception of the World

Conclusions are not necessarily right when everything is taken into consideration. Take the premise that warm water freezes faster than cold water. If you put two ice cube trays in the freezer, one with warm water and the other with cold water, they will both freeze at the same time. Conclusion: Warm water freezes faster than cold water. In reality, the warm water keeps the cold water from freezing until they are at the same temperature.

Now if we step forward to this tax the rich concept. Proponents state that lowering the tax rate of the rich from 90% to 20% did nothing economically to stimulate the economy. So let’s raise the rates back up to what they were and increase government revenues. The thing that needs to be examined, the rich will invest or not invest depending on the tax code laws. If taxes are 90% here, invest somewhere else.

If you examine the graph below, there is really no correlation between the high tax rates for the rich in the early 1950’s compared to present returns. The graph is flat. The rate of taxation on the rich appears to have had little effect on total taxes collected. You’d expect a dramatic drop in collections when rates were dropped.

The “ad-v” refers to ad-valorem taxes; these are real estate taxes and sales tax.

Notice the red area of the graph. This represents social insurance. Figure that the new health care provision should at least double the red values. This will increase our taxes by 25%. This won’t be a tax on the rich; it will be a tax on the poor who skip health insurance because they can’t afford it without reducing their standard of living. Of course the employer pays half of that tax doesn’t he??? If you have ever worked on a commission basis, you’ll discover that you pay both sides. It isn’t hard to figure what this new tax will cost $2,000 to $5,000 per employee. Figure more than you presently pay for private insurance.

The real problem lies in the fact that Congress may believe that raising taxes during these harsh times is a real solution. Common sense suggests this should increase taxes collected. In reality, the net result will be little change in revenue. It’s a little like that house you bought that everyone told you would never drop in value. Well it has dropped quite a bit and the property taxes on your home have dropped also. Unemployed people pay fewer taxes. So at this point raising taxes further restricts taxpayer consumption (a reduced standard of living) and Government revenues drop even further.

The Democrats want to increase taxes on the rich and the Republicans are dead set against it; the only real people it will affect are sports players and movie stars. The Republicans ought to let the Democrats win this one and let them go for it, see if the dollars roll in. It’s just political posturing on both sides.

What can we look forward to in 2012? A lot of belt tightening! A lot of political squabbling and finger pointing. An election is coming up, is Obama destined to be our Herbert Hoover? Will health care pass a Supreme Court review? Will the Euro survive? Can we increase the national debt one trillion dollars a year forever. Will civil war triumph over democracy in the Middle East? Could several States in the coming year need a Federal government bailout? I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but once we get all of this under our belt, it may be up instead of down from there.

None of our problems have been solved, they have only been ameliorated (to make more tolerable). What will happen in the coming year is veiled in uncertainty. But even so, here is wishing every reader Seasons Greetings and the hope for a successful and Happy New Year.

Guverment is goin ta fix things rite

Now the government is trying to save us with a newly created institution called the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It has a planned budget in excess of 300 million dollars. This is one of those” lock the barn door after the horses have run off,” programs. Why not use the money for the unemployed and food stamps? These people need hope, not protection.

Then the Obama administration comes out supporting a restriction on purchasing a morning after birth control for anyone under the age of 17, they didn’t want 11 and 12 year old girls buying them. Just how many pills can you buy on a 50 cent a week allowance? The average kid probably has a better chance of being hit by a milk truck than being knocked up at the age of 11 or 12.

Alabama passed a stiff law against illegal immigrants, now they have no one to harvest the farm crops. The argument being that the farmers will have to pay better wages to get fruit pickers. Are you going to buy 89 cent a pound tomatoes grown in Mexico or the $3 per pound ones grown in Alabama? Farm land could be a good buy in that state, as farmers go broke trying to survive. Of course when the law is repealed, those who invested in that "worthless land," will make out like bandits. Passing legislation is a little like playing chess; you have to think several moves out to make a buck. These legislators did their thinking and by all appearances, looked like they were performing a public service; they got rid of the illegal aliens and are about to pick up some nice cheap farmland to boot.

New York plans to raise 2 billion dollars taxing millionaires. How does this work? The rich people will move out of the state (to their summer homes no less). The amount that New York raises from taxing the rich, will be passed to the middle class in the form of lower tax rates. What happens when no new funds come in from expected sources? Is this where they pull the rabbit out of the hat? I just love magic tricks!

A new Nevada law makes it more difficult for lenders to foreclose on home loans in the state. 3 out of 5 homeowners are already underwater with their mortgages. Where is the incentive for the banks to even write new home loans in the state? Just draw a red line around the state, home prices could drop a lot lower now that the banks have been shown "who’s the boss." Visa and Master Card could be the only ones doing home loans in the state.

Then we have FHA guaranteed loans to help people in California buy affordable homes up to $729,000. To my way of thinking, someone buying a home a few hundred thousand shy of a million dollars doesn’t need financing help. Why not set the bar at a more reasonable level of 150K for everyone. That might kick the air out of the inflated housing market in California. These loan levels are a prime example of a government program that fails to protect the best interests of the buyer. The amounts are absurd, and no one questions them.

Governor Jerry Brown just acknowledged that the state of California has a 13 billion dollar shortfall this year. I would hazard a guess that the current budget shortfall and liability obligations are closer to 30 billion dollars. It’s a little like the political concept of being “just a little bit pregnant,” it’s just a small problem right now. Tell the voters the truth and get hung out to dry. His solution is to cut services even more and raise taxes. It seems logical. But raising taxes, will it bring in more revenue? Just look at all of the supermarkets in LA that have their warehouses in Nevada. They truck their product in 250 miles. It’s all about taxes that vary considerably from one state to another.

Most of these government programs are kind of like using a shotgun to trim your toe nails. They kind of, sort of work, but results may vary depending on your eyesight. Using government logic, not having to take your shoes and socks off to trim your toe nails is a labor saving plus.

The Tax Money Is There

Americans pay their taxes and now there are budget shortfalls. In Los Angeles, many city employees are getting 36 days of yearly furlough (14 percent of their wages are just not there anymore). Then there is the CalPERS retirement fund, which is severely underfunded (the consensus is the State of California will have to make them whole---Smoking some “Kalifornia hemp” makes this wish more plausible).

Each taxpayer firmly believes that the money is there to finance their special or necessary State programs, and the legislature is frivolously spending their taxes on something else that is worthless--- like education. This concept is set in stone, “The money is there and they won’t spend it on my program!”

Remember the old adage “the squeaky wheel gets the grease.” The wheels are starting to squeak and we’ve run out of grease. People with a programs being cut will march in protest--- This is where these many different protests combine together and turn to riots. Was it Congress that once said “Let them eat cake?” For some reason, the expression "Don't lose your head," comes to mind. Maybe a shot of Courvoisier Napoleon Cognac will help us remember what transpired in France 200 years ago.

Tax the Rich Is A False Cry, We Are Ripping Their Asses With Inflation

When I was 23, I had about $3,000 in savings and most of it I earned while in Viet Nam. So when I see these protesters in the street, that are young, they’re not brimming over with wealth. Saving over a lifetime gives one riches. This is how wealth is accumulated. The Hoi Polloi definition of “Rich,” is a person with enough money that there is no need to work ever again!

The government (Congress) is talking about wage earners who earn a lot of money when they refer to taxing the rich. A family of three or four with two wage earners earning 55K pays no tax; so double that, the rich are 110K and above.

Now let’s figure that John Doe decided to save $600 a month for the rest of his life starting at age 20 after 40 years at 6% he would have $ 1,150,178 or under today’s Bernanke interest rate plan about $353,886 at a 1% rate.

So now, after 40 years of savings, you have over a million in the bank. No need to cash it out, it’s FDIC insured. But while you were collecting interest, the government was printing money for the last 4 years. Inflation is a tax on savings, so in this case, we are taxing the rich/savers. And at 8% inflation, over the last 4 years, that amounts to a 32% tax. It’s invisible, nobody presented you with a bill.

Then we have FDIC insurance. Great little promotional item thought up by FDR. All of the banks by that time that were going broke had already gone broke, so there was no capital outlay for this added bank guarantee. So in today’s world, if your bank gets real sick, there is no reason to go to the bank to withdraw your funds. A run on the bank, puts the bank out of business, this has been averted.

The real neat thing is if you keep your money in the bank for that rainy day ahead that is what the government is counting on. Once retirees start spending their savings, they will burn right through the paltry interest in no time. Those dollars saved way back 60 years ago were hard dollars, and those same dollars valued in today's purchasing power, have been taxed to death by inflation.

Then there is the suggestion that millionaires ought to pay more than 17 percent in taxes. Why more? 17 percent of 100k is 17 thousand dollars and 17 percent of one million is 170K. The percentage paid is the same, but the amounts vary by a factor of 10, plus throw in the 32% inflation tax. I guess what it comes down to is the fact that rich people are incredibly stupid and the voters are incredibly intelligent. There is absolutely no reason to pay an accountant 20k a year to help you pay less in taxes, or is there?

People point to the Bush Tax cut renewal and it cracks me up. If they pass it, it will be called the Obama tax cut. Think for one moment, has there ever been a permanent tax cut? Has Congress been cutting our taxes permanently year after year? Tax Cuts are sunset laws, the law expires at a certain date and Congress conveniently passes a new tax cut, and points out to their constituents that they lowered taxes, talk about exhausting work.

Let’s go back to Eisenhower times and tax the rich at 90 percent. This will satisfy the Hoi Polloi’s demands as to the status quo; and it will end up being nothing more than window dressing. Who would go to work and have the government take 90 percent of their earnings? Of course it might work out as intended for a lottery winner, winning 300 million; they’d end up with 30 million after taxes.

Let’s tax the rich, but understand one thing, if they are smart enough to get rich, they are smart enough to want to avoid paying the additional taxes. Believing that they will have to pay is pure stupidity. The funny thing is rich people behave just like you and I; we try to avoid paying more taxes than we have to. I wonder how dumb that is?

Brick Wall Dead Ahead

The German bond market just had a miserable auction, nobody showed up. And of course the Euro is in fine shape. How many would you like to buy?

The Congressional Super Committee had a senior moment; they lost the cape and the t-shirt with an S on it. It’s no big deal; whatever they forgot to do, wasn’t going to happen until 2013 anyway.

Egypt wants Democracy. I guess General Motors could name a new car “Democracy,” and we could sell it to them. That’s about as close to Democracy as they will ever get. Democracy is a little like a car, the wheels are your social institutions. So far they have the military and Islam, one wants to shoot the occupants, the other wants to load it with explosives.

Syria seems to have a problem with too much press coverage. Fidel Castro had a rather effective solution, a cigarette and a blindfold. To a lot of people in the world, order and stability are more desirable than Democracy.

Tear gas orders for this Holiday season are up. There isn’t a dry eye in the house in Syria, Greece or Egypt. And at UC Davis they are gassing students after they paid tuition. If they weren’t crying about the cost of tuition before they paid it, they were afterwards.

Then there is the deficit, it’s now at 15 trillion dollars. Congress is fighting over raising taxes to pay for all of this, but it hasn’t slowed down the spending. You really have to wonder why the worry to raise taxes or reduce spending, things are running just “peachy keen,” the way they are.

Then we have Freddie and Fannie. Down the street a two bedroom 1 ½ bath is going for $325K. Of course the 4 bedroom 3 bath a block away is going for $355K. The government is going to sell your kids the one for $325 with no money down.

Interest rates have gotten so low that you need to work 80 years before you have enough saved up to retire (if you factor in inflation, double that up to 160 years). I think Bernie Madoff will be getting out of prison about then. California’s CalPERS retirement fund is still claiming that it is earning 7 percent on investments. It kind of shows you where Bush’s “No Kids Left Behind,” found employment. It's a little like a mortuary issuing birth certificates, something has to be out of whack and you’re not sure just what it is.

Unemployment is “under control.” For some reason, the number of mattresses under freeway bridges seems to be on the rise as are the people camping in city parks.

Our leaders reassure us everything is OK; they claim to have saved us from a Great Depression. With Cities going bankrupt for the first time since the 1930’s, you have to wonder, is Obama a used car salesman in disguise? The thing that worries me are the potential Republican contenders, all of them have that used car salesman look.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

Squirrel Economics 101

This will be familiar to a few of you, it is a reprint from two years back. I'm having a little writers block. I should be back on track by Friday.

Imagine a group of squirrels saving nuts for winter and depositing them in a bank (one nut one credit in their account). Let’s imagine that a truck pulls up and helps themselves to 80 percent of the nuts. The bank now has a problem. It can’t cover all of the deposits. But notice, if there isn’t a run on the bank, there is no real problem. Squirrels are depositing and withdrawing nuts with no problem.

In this little example even if there was some form of bank insurance, what ever it was, it could not replace the nuts (their winter food supply). The amount left for all of the squirrels is pretty much set to the 20% remaining plus net deposits made until winter. In this case, there is no inflation (you cannot print the squirrels food supply). The squirrel has no idea of the life or death consequences of what the bank has done until winter arrives (retirement).

The real estate market is the truck that pulled up to our personal savings and looted the bank. In this case, we have government insurance to “make us whole again.” The money taken was spent. Notice that every dollar deposited had to be worked for (a squirrel nut).

Labor created some product. By not consuming this nut and saving it, you were putting this towards retirement consumption. The money from the boom (real estate loans) was spent on many lavish toys and is forever gone. Now we have financial institutions with only 20% of capital left. In actuality, there is only 20% of product produced left (the nuts). The rest has been consumed. It is rather academic whether or not the government prints more money to make us w(hole) again.

We have a choice, leave the banks with the 20% which will buy the 20% of produced product left or we print enough money to restore everyone’s bank balance.

I am sure this little analogy could get me shot again or could be picked apart easily. I present it as an illustration of how money relieves us from the bother of having to barter for services and goods. Once you accept the convenience of money vs bartering, the concept of just printing it, is the equivalent to stealing.

So if you are a squirrel, “It’s grab your nuts and run!"

Euro Crisis Mismanagement

Italy and Greece are financially insolvent and their governments are in a real mess. Austerity programs are being forced on both countries, and their citizens are not very happy about the coming cuts.

The money was borrowed and spent. When you read the papers, there is a mention that if Greece and Italy were to default, it could take other countries with them. At this point, you have Germany and France stepping in to rescue their fallen comrades.

The real question not being asked, is who loaned all of the money for this drunken orgy? Germany and France come to mind, not to mention a few State retirement funds. What is happening here is the same as Jingle mail in the US. It’s a little like buying a million dollar home with no money down and you lose your job. A bank that does too many of these finds themselves out of business real quick.

The problems in Italy and Greece are rather obvious. Problems in France and Germany are nonexistent, if they can get Greece and Italy to make their "house payments." Here in the US, everyone thinks that the Government is trying to bail out the homeowner and that is just not the case, they want them to continue paying their outrageous mortgages, with minor modifications. This keeps the banks paper current and on the books as written with no markdowns.

The big players in Europe, France and Germany financed these unsecured loans. The European banking system faces ruin, if and when the PIIGS stop paying. To say that the banks lose in this case, is rather an understatement, it is their depositors that take the hit. The banks only loan your money, and if they lose it all, that’s life. Look for problems at Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale.

Everyone knows the PIIGS are broke and that is no big deal. What's not realized, is that the people in trouble, aren't the deadbeats, but rather the bank depositors that had funds to loan. The loans will not be repaid, but that is less than obvious with all of these proposed repayment plans.

Nobody is going to go to prison over this, being incredibility stupid or optimistic and running a bank, is not against the law. The question you need to ask is your money safe in a Euro bank? The answer; "Not Sure," could start a run on the Euro. Retirement could be further away than you envisioned.