Sunday, July 18, 2021

The New State Voter Laws

 The Democrats are claiming the new voter laws restrict voting, and it is really hard to figure.  It is almost as if they can look at a person and determine how they  will vote. Peculiarly it seems to be the black voter they are most interested in protecting.  If there is one vote to each franchised voter and it was done in person, the election would be determined by the vote. Common sense would suggest that if voter fraud was suspected, both Republicans and Democrats would be equally concerned, and that is just not the case.

The Democrats claim the need for mail in voting without identification, is rather absurd. Only 60 percent of the population votes in an election.  So, if everyone eligible to vote is sent a ballot, 40 percent do not care who wins and probably won’t return their ballot.  At this point the blank ballots could be sold for cash.  Notice that, that option disappears if the voter has to show up in person to vote.  If only 70 percent of the voters return a ballot, then there is the chance that 30 percent of the unreturned ballots could be “voted” by a third party, not the intended voter.  If they don’t need to be signed by the voter, it makes it very easy to enter them as valid votes in an election.

In a two-party system, the voters are usually evenly split.  40 percent Republican and 40 percent Democrat.  So, in order to steal an election, you need to estimate what party, the 20% swing voters are going to vote for. As a corrupt official, you are not interested in who votes for whom. Most of the votes cancel each other out. You’re interested in how many votes are needed to swing the election.  At this point, you can either print the ballots or purchase the ballots from voters who would rather have the money. With a budget of 50 million dollars, 100,000 votes could be purchased at $500 apiece. All you have to do then, is mail them in or put them in a drop box and you are done. 

Voter registration drives in certain areas, is a point to concentrate upon, when purchasing votes.  Get prospective voters to register, then volunteer to come back and help them fill out the ballot and deliver it for them.  The person picking up the votes would probably pay the “voter” $50 to $500 for each vote. He might pay a druggie $50 and keep $450 for himself.  A woman with 4 kids might get $400 and so on.  You give the vote collector $10,000 in cash and tell him to come back with 20 blank but signed ballots.

Another thing about mail in votes, is that the government can literally scan your ballot and tell how you voted. You might wake up after the election and find out that you have been signed up for retraining indoctrination. Your “white privilege” can be documented.

Mail in ballots compromise our voting system, giving people the right to sell their vote.  And in today’s elections where hundreds of millions are spent on each candidate, this can be an abuse that can end democracy.  A lot of people don’t vote because they think their vote doesn’t count. They could be right if they live in Detroit or New York City.  Ever wonder why?

Friday, June 18, 2021

Precious Metals in The New Economy

I haven’t been writing much. I’m kind of burned out on how the economy is going. When I started this blog in 2006, I saw the depression coming.  It was hidden by the government and the news.  We did have a depression in 2008 and it more or less went into a stagnant economy. But in 2008 the banks almost collapsed.  Congress had to prop up the banks. Think about it, if the banks had failed, where would the government borrow from?  The banks didn’t fail and we kept on putting straws on the camel’s back (the national debt).

Economics is the study of the economy and how it responds to certain stimulus.  The trouble is, economic theory can’t predict the future; it can only explain what has already happened.  Economics is not a science. So here we are increasing the national debt with many people retiring and the Covid stimulus packages being paid out.  Something is wrong.  Millions of workers are being paid to not work.  This cannot continue.   People need to produce product, if they don’t, the product desired becomes scarce. 

This is where inflation comes in.  If the product is scarce and you want it, you have to pay more for it. The fact not even realized is that it cost 23 cents for a pack of cigarettes in 1962 and now a pack cost $8.00.  It’s been slow and progressive.

Lawmakers know what is happening, but it is drawn out over time.  Most people will never notice until they retire; their saving doesn’t have the buying power it had 40 years ago.  The real factor not realized, is that the dollar saved in 1965 has the purchasing power of 4 cents, in today’s world. Kind of mind boggling. What was saved in 1965 would pay the rent, now in 2021 it only buys groceries.

 An ounce of silver used to be a guide on the hourly wage, and an ounce of gold was a paycheck for the week.  It looks like that may still ring true. Bear in mind that precious metals are not rising in price, they are reflecting the drop in the value of the dollar.  As the water level rises in a lake, the boat will still float.

Right now, there are four areas of investment; Bonds, real estate, stocks, and precious metals. The bond market interest rates are so low, you have to ask the question, who would be dumb enough to put their cash into savings. Real estate and stocks seem to be the markets of choice right now.  The precious metals market is kind of an unknown.  With inflation at 10% and the cost of money at one percent, it costs literally nothing to hold precious metals.

If you examine the precious metals; silver, gold and platinum, you’ll notice that they fluctuate in price, unrelated to each other.  Gold is in the lead; Platinum is underpriced and silver is trending upward. Last week, I converted my silver to platinum. 50 pounds of silver converts into 10 ounces of platinum and doesn’t take up much space in a safety deposit box. Also converting Gold to platinum is rather attractive.

The thing you need to remember about precious metals, is that if this mess gets worse, you might have the cash to purchase precious metals but most suppliers may be out of product, and you won't know that until you go in to make a purchase. That has happened to me twice this year.  The premium to purchase has gone up considerably especially on silver.  I kind of choke on a premium of $3.50 per ounce for silver. The following 6 months could be an eye opener.  The precious metals market for delivery is in a very unknown condition. Is the physical metal there for purchase?  

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Restaurant Menu Prices from 1938

This is a reprint from August 20, 2013 that I thought might be worth another glance.

I was searching through some picture albums of my parents from way back and ran into some restaurant menus  from the depression era of late 1930's.. The first 3 pictures are from the Manhattan  Restaurant.


The Second menu (three pictures) is on the Union Pacific Railroad from 1937 somewhere in Wyoming.

This last menu is from the Hotel Windermere in Chicago 1937.

Double click on the images to see what the prices were back then.   Did you notice that the Manhattan offered a broiled (Whole) lobster for 65 cents?  In today's world, you'd be lucky to get half a lobster for $30.  Bear in mind, the people that read these menus in real time are probably dead by now.

The pay raise that everyone gets each year because of inflation is just an allusion. Look around, the new hires are starting out a few pennies less than what the seasoned workers are making.  The neat thing about inflation is that Congress doesn't have to raise the tax rates, you earn more, you pay more.  That's the real difference between the Democrats and Republicans; print as you go verses pay as you go.

The real odd thing is that the average person does not connect the dots. The relationship between government spending and inflation does not exist. Rumor has it, we've always had inflation-- I guess we're supposed to get used to it.  My wife bought a new battery and asked me to guess how much she paid for it, and I said $40.  Her answer; "That's the price you would have paid 20 years ago, the battery was $100."

Let's see,(from top menu third picture, red part) I'll have the broiled lobster with coffee and a slice of cake--that's about 85 cents total, plus 15 cents for a tip.  The trouble is, 83 years of inflation have raised the prices a tad.

Friday, March 05, 2021

Turmoil in Washington DC

We have approximately 5 to 10 thousand National Guard troops in Washington DC, with barbwire on top of the barricades to protect us from an impending invasion of God knows what. If you were to tie one of those fence barricades to a truck and pull away, it would probably pull down about 200 feet of it in a couple of seconds.

The other thing not pointed out, is that 99.9 percent of the National Guard in place have not been issued ammunition.  There is no reason for it.  It only takes one bad apple to screw up things, so no ammunition.

This is a pathetic political play to make the voter feel threatened and to influence possible voters who are undecided.

Play soldier for the civilian spectators, because the people in charge are afraid of the "We the people."  It has to look importantly significant  for the news. Go figure.

Ask your congressman; "If it is such a severe crisis, why don't the soldiers have ammunition?"

Tuesday, February 02, 2021

The Doctor Visit

I went for my yearly physical today and got an AOK.  I mention to the doctor that I think I had Corona Virus a year ago.  I had a pretty bad case of the flu, but it didn’t stop me from going to work.  Two weeks after I recovered, I put a bagel in the toaster oven and went back to my paperwork. After a while, I noticed that the dog was barking a lot and my glasses looked awful dirty. Then the smoke alarm went off.  My bagel was on fire in the toaster oven. I put the toaster fire out and noticed that the timer didn’t stop at zero it went past it, and kept on toasting. At this point I realized that I could not smell anything.  That explained why food didn’t really taste very good lately.  I had lost my sense of smell.  My doctor said that he had many cases that started in January, a year ago, including his wife.  He mentioned that he was at a loss as to why the media had not picked up on this.

 Right now, the media has kept the death count from last year of 300, 000 and continued on this year adding to it.  This is what I call yellow Journalism.  Exaggeration for readership and political influence.  The death count for this year should have started at zero and it didn’t.  79 percent of the people dying from the disease are over the age of 65.  People do die from old age, don’t let the Corona Virus take all of the blame.  99.9 percent of the population will survive the disease, so why the panic?

 The news media has panicked the nation.  It makes good copy and sells advertising.  People are frozen in place in terror because of the news media.  “My god, I could kill someone by not wearing my mask” this projected suggestion to the public is blatantly wrong.  The truth is most of us can go out and do business with no problem.

 Remember the first restrictions were to lower the curve so hospitals could accommodate the patients.  It was not pointed out to anyone that the area under the curve remained the same, the same number would die only over a longer period of time.

 I think we will find out, that most people will get the Corona Virus and survive.  It is a form of the cold virus and it has been around forever. I think we will also discover that the death counts for other diseases like heart disease, will drop considerably from previous years, from fear to consult a doctor.  The total death rate for the nation will be above 2.7 million per year. But bear in mind the average reader has no visual concept of 2.7 million people dying each year normally.  This has panicked the masses, the perspective of 80,000 drug deaths, 40,000 car deaths, 70,000 Influenzas deaths has left the people with no perspective of how to interpret the data.

 The yellow press impresses upon us, that 300,000 died last year from Corona Virus.  People do die of old age and it is usually after the age of 65.  Funny how elderly people are not supposed to die from Corona Virus, but rather from old age.  How many of the people that died had one foot on a banana peel?

Monday, January 18, 2021

Tripping over a torque Vector in a Laundromat

Just for laughs type in the title of my previous post into G00gle or B1ng with or without the dash and see what you pull up. Abs0lutely n0thing.

Anything with the second or third word is subject to san1tation.  There are no c0ntrary v1ews a11owed.

If you don’t have a link to my site, you cannot akcess that article.  What the viewer can akcess is determined by the $earch eng1ne.

This is sens0rsh1p by 0m1ss1on.  0pposing views or c0ntrary information are not presented.   Reminds me of a book title that's all numbers, the G00gle sp1ders might trigger on.

In the statement “_____  kil1s doctor that tried t0 spread the a1arm;”  what is the real answer?  (hint: a form of lead poisoning) 

The comm0n man cann0t be left to th1nk for himself, it is to0 danger0us.

D1ssent is not to be t0lerated.

Take away my reader5 and you have 5ilenced me.

Friday, December 25, 2020

The Corona Virus Panic- a Chinese Fire Drill

Divided the 300,000  COVID-19  deaths by 365 days in a year and then again by 50 states and it comes out to 16.5 people a day.  Figure that 2.7 million people died in 2019 before COVID-19.  Do the same process over again. That turns out to be 148 people dying per day, per state.   This model is flawed because the 50 states are not evenly populated. I used the assumption all states are equal, to create a baseline for our perspective of the virus, normal deaths vs the virus. The normal death rate of 148 vs the perceived corona virus death rate of 16.5 a day.

When we count the COVID-19 deaths, did COVID-19 kill them or was the death from something else like old age?  We really won’t know until the statistics are gathered over the next three months on deaths nationwide for 2020.  I would suspect that we may have a drop in heart disease deaths by about 100,000.  We may have about 60,000 less influenza deaths.  I would expect an increase in opioid and alcohol related deaths.  Deaths from pneumonia will be nonexistent.

When you look at all of the diseases a person could die of, it becomes apparent, that there is the propensity to distort the actual cause of death.  Jumping to a conclusion happens all of the time.  People can die of multiple causes. The chosen choice of death can alter the statistics.  A hospital that gets a $40,000 government subsidy for each COVID-19 death, can turn a pneumonia victim into a COVID-19 statistic.  I really can’t blame a hospital for trying to make a buck.

The political ploy in this mess is very insidious.  It won the democrats an election, through fear generated upon the general populace.  The news sources have created a panic and fear campaign throughout the country.  People believe that many are dying like flies all over the place and that they are next.  79 percent of the people dying are over the age of 60 and old age is a natural form of death.  This has gotten ridiculous.  You might catch COVID-19, but it ain’t going to kill you.  But we are told if we don’t wear a mask, we are responsible for killing others.  All of the anti-mask research papers have been censored by Google. This mask mandate is a way the government can look like it is addressing the issue with a solution.  It placates the masses; wear a mask and you are safe. The Guverment will save us!

Fascism wants you to be a part of the group.  Hitler's second in command, Herman Goering said about war: 

Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.”
  So, with COVID-19, “you are killing people by not wearing your mask.” Sound familiar?

In essence, if the state governments were to tell everyone over the age of 60 to hide inside their homes, the rest of us could continue enjoying life.  The number of people dying would not be a factor of notice for day-to-day commerce.  And commerce is what drives the economy.  Also note, the people under the age of 60 are not retired and need a source of livelihood, a job, to pay the bills.  331,000,000 people are in this country. Of the deaths this year, 1/10th of 1 percent (300,000) have been dubbed COVID-19 related.  When you compare the number of people affected by the lockdown and compare that to the number the virus has killed, the cure is worse than the disease.

“Wearing a mask is not going to keep the virus away” or “Wearing a mask will keep the virus at away.”  Neither statement can be proven, it has to be taken on faith. However, “Clapping your hands keeps the elephants out of New York City” must be true, there are no elephants in New York City.

300,000 deaths additional to the 2.7 million from all other causes is not a large amount in comparison to the total population.  By staying at home, people are not going to avoid getting the virus, it only delays it.  In the normal propagation of the virus, the more virulent strains kill the host and it ends the virus's ability to propagate. Strains that don’t kill the host, tend to survive to infect again; that is the virus to catch.  A hospital is the perfect medium for the virulent virus to survive long enough to infect others; that’s the virus you don’t want to catch.

I’m 74, if I want to go to a restaurant or fly on an airplane, I am going to enjoy my latter years of life, not sit in my home quivering in fear.   This panic has been exaggerated by the news services and needs to stop.  People are dying, but not in any amount that warrants panicking everyone.  Or maybe I should qualify that, the number of people dying is insignificant when you consider the total population.  We don’t need to ruin the lives of everyone to save those elderly who are already compromised and may catch the disease and die.  We know how to protect them now.

Imagine if the newspaper printed the headline “40 million people without jobs are starving to death.” These are the “non-essential” people in our country (restaurants, barbershops, bars, fitness centers, etc.). Take this group, bankrupt them, deplete their savings from lack of work, and now you have a real disaster. Grandma’s son is unemployed and the extra bucks he mails her isn’t coming.  40 million people not paying taxes or contributing to Social Security. This could be a very sobering year for our government. 

Another scary thing to comprehend, many readers question the validity of the writer who has no scientific credentials.  “Follow the science,” is a good way to bury one’s head in the sand.  Economics and business acumen can be a better guide to addressing the corona virus crisis, than science by itself.  Then if you discredit common sense, you mise well follow the herd off of the cliff.

The overreaction of government using lockdowns has turned a nasty disease into an economic meltdown with very obvious consequences.  The effects of which will play out in the coming year.


Thursday, November 26, 2020

Voter Fraud

The election process was changed this year. Many states mailed out ballots to everyone on their rolls. This did not take into account people who have moved or are dead. It also did not take into account that many people didn’t really want to spend the effort to vote, the election didn’t matter to them.

 Another thing not mentioned is that the state now has enough information on your ballot to know how you voted. In California there is a scan code on the envelope enclosed that id’s the voter. That is the important thing, they know how you voted. Scan the envelope and then scan the ballot. This circumvents the idea of anonymous voting. They know how you voted, they know who you are and where you live. 

 I can see where people may request a mail in ballot in order to participate in an election. But when the state issues every registered voter a ballot, it gives the owner of that ballot the right to sell it for profit. The right to vote is one to where you have to show up to vote. An absentee ballot is a certificate that you receive and can be sold to a third party. This new concept of absentee voting allows people to abuse the system. Your ballot can be turned into cash. $200 to $1,000 I have heard. 50 million raised in an election campaign can buy a hell of a lot of votes. 

 Notice that voting in person keeps dead people and people who have moved from voting. One person, one vote, limits voter fraud. Count the voters registered and then compare it to the votes cast, they should match. With everything done by mail, the party running the election process, has the power to determine the results. We depend on the people doing the counting being honest. And they may count the votes correctly, who is to say that the mail in voters were legit. Voting machines can be programed to count wrong, more ballots could be printed. With only 60 percent of the people voting in most elections, it wouldn’t take many invalid votes to turn an election. 

 The real problem not noticed, is if this happens enough times in one location, the losing voter after many elections gives up and stops voting. This could be what has happened in many cities in the country. Corruption is very profitable and the voter has no redress, all they get is a sticker that says “I voted.” You may have voted, but if the results can be changed by adding fictitious votes to the ballot box, have you really voted?

 I have a blank California ballot in my hands that was not submitted that was received at our house. How can we arrive at the conclusion that the election results are correct? I could have filled it out and mailed it in, and I am too honest to do it. It kind of sucks to be a nice guy. 

Usually a theft involves two people, the one who lost the item, and the one who stole the item. In voter fraud, the victim is the person running for office. And he is none the wiser that a crime has been committed. He can suspect that there was abuse, but it is very hard to prove.

Saturday, November 14, 2020

The Pitfalls of Mail in Voting

In a democracy, the voter gets to elect his government officials, in secret, by voting, on election day.  Back in the 1800’s there were stories of the boss standing next to you when you filled out the ballot.  Not cool.  Think twice about voting by mail.  Your name and address are on the ballot being returned.  The government can cull out the opposition by recording how the vote was cast.  You can’t claim that you voted for someone else, it is right there in black and white.

In each election, millions of dollars are spent on advertising, to try and win your vote.  With mail-in ballots, going to every registered voter, voters who don’t even care to vote will get ballots.  Why spend on advertising in the media for your vote?  It could be a lot cheaper to buy each vote for $200 to $1,000. With a budget of 50 million, one could buy 50,000 to 250,000 unmarked but signed ballots.  This turns the mail-in ballot into a bonus check.  There is a claim that this already happened in Michigan during the previous election.  This should be illegal.  Many of our poor would rather have $1,000 in hard cash rather than voting in an election.  Notice that the time span from the delivery of the vote until the election, pretty much makes the blank ballots a fungible commodity that can be recovered and processed in a timely manner.

Another thing to look at is the voter rolls. 2.7 million people die each year in the US. That could be 2 million dead people on the rolls just for that year.  In some districts, they purge your name if you don’t vote in two general elections.  8 years of dead people amounts to 16 million dead people on the voter rolls. Mailing out a ballot to all of them might change the election results.  They have registered voters that would be 120 years old in some states. The neat thing here, you don’t have to pay dead voters for their vote.

Each year many families move for one reason or another, and re-register to vote.  This can create a duplicate second mail in ballot. A close friend of mine, moved to Pennsylvania three years ago and still received a mail in ballot for the California election. Nothing was done illegal, they moved and the election board had no idea. My next-door neighbor died last May, and I am sure he got a ballot in the mail.

 The voter election rolls determine how many voters are eligible to vote.  The mail in ballot was never meant to be for most voters.  Basically, the mail in votes were a very small number compared to the whole group of voters and the ballot had to be requested. It was different this year in California, everyone that was registered, got a mail-in ballot.  Many were ineligible to vote, dead or had moved from their registered address.  In-person voting eliminates many of the errors in polling records.  Some will not vote, because of the time and commitment involved.  Notice, if everyone listed on the voting roll can vote absentee, the ability to steal an election increases proportionally.  Your absentee ballot can be sold for cash.

If the people in charge of the voter registration are from one political party, elections can be massaged with mail-in voting.  It is not hard to compile a list of dead voters or of people who have moved out of state. This method of rigging an election is not perceivable if done surreptitiously. But in this age of computer technology, it is not hard to research and discover some of the voter fraud.  With the census that was recently taken, it might be a very easy thing to validate voter registrations by comparing it to the census data. 

Can we afford to have universal mail-in ballots?  It lends itself to internal corruption when one party runs the balloting process. The real question, is it fair that a ballot can be turned into cash?  Maybe the Supreme Court can settle the case.  If it can’t, elections will not be determined by the voters, rather the people running the election process will do it for you.  Its kind of like going into an “all you can eat restaurant.” You get up and go for seconds and are told “That’s all you can eat.”

Saturday, November 07, 2020

Problems in Paradise

Right now, everyone is refinancing their homes at the new 2 ¼ loan rate for 30 years.  Everyone with a job that is.  A lot of people are behind in their mortgage payments 6 or more months.  No problem everything is okay.  The majority of workers have a 401K retirement fund that is probably heavily invested in the stock market.  As long as it goes up, no problem.  A lot of businesses are or will be closed forever due to the Corona virus.  When the government says it is okay to open, quite a few will not be able to.

 A majority of people envision a rich businessman, as a person with gobs of money.  However, in most cases, the person is highly leveraged and knows how to manage his finances.  So, if this average rich man had to liquidate his businesses to raise cash, he might find himself broke.    It can be very hard to sell a 500-million-dollar company with 400 million in debts in a bad economy let alone shut down for 8 months.

 During the Great Depression many cities increased tax rates to make up for the shortfall from taxes collected. Their tax base had shrunk considerably.  A lot of wage earners had no taxable income, they were unemployed. The net result of the tax increases, owners let their homes go into foreclosure.  The cities found themselves owning the real estate.  The logic to raise taxes to increase tax receipts, backfired.  Notice that politicians don’t go to jail for incompetence, they usually just fade away. Their decisions during that era ruined many a family.

 In the 1929 crash, the stock market was owned by individual investors who thought they knew what they were doing. In the present market, huge mutual funds manage the market.  They are too big to get out of the market. The stock market is very vulnerable to a drastic reset, there is no reason for some of the prices, they are absurd.  It won’t be quick; it will be slow probably over three months. Everyone in the market knows what they are doing, wink, wink; they will go broke buying the dips.  Actually, in a long bull market it is very hard to lose money even if you are incredibly stupid. In the 70’s and 80’s I can remember a market, where whatever you bought, it went down.  The present investment advisors have never experienced a bear market.  Imagine what the taxes on your 401 k would be, if you tried to withdraw the whole amount at once from the market.  The government and your investment advisor are banking you won’t even consider it.  Any losses are not tax deductible.

 As the government’s rate of borrowing increases, interest rates will have to rise.    With rates rising and delinquent real estate hitting the markets, look for dropping home prices.  The monthly payment will remain the same (the price drops 50% and the interest rate doubles).  A bank offering a higher interest rates will see funds transfer overnight to their bank, reminiscent of the Savings and Loan fiasco of the 1990’s. Banks deposits are short term and they lend that money long term. The low long-term loans bankrupted the Saving and Loans when interest rates rose and depositors fled in search of higher rates.

 With a 2 percent interest rate, it takes about 33 years for your money to double.  At 5 percent interest rate, it takes about 14.4 years to double.  A thing to be aware of is that historically, interest rates reflected the risk of the investment.  That appears to be overlooked in the market of today. With the government “insuring” mortgage loans, most investors falsely perceive that there is no risk in the market. Two percent interest does not even cover the current rate of inflation of 7 percent.  If interest rates were to rise higher than 5 percent, the government would be insolvent; unable to pay the interest on the national debt or for that fact be able to finance Social Security and Medicare. What that would do to the bond market, which is 10 times bigger than the stock market, is hard to imagine or describe.

 In the present market, the best investments may be your home or precious metals. The caveat here, is do you have a job? I you don’t, there is no reason to buy either. If the Corona virus lockdown lasts much longer, things could get very difficult.  Most parts of our economic structure are stressed to the limit.  The only real sources of taxation for the government is earnings and visible assets; real estate, vehicles and retirement savings. If you are not working, you’re not paying taxes or your mortgage.

 The saving grace for our market under President Trump was the cut in business tax rates, this brought jobs back to the US and gave the rest of the world higher unemployment. After WWII the US economy surged supplying goods to the rest of the world.  Since then, the rest of the world has been making goods for the US.  This turn around of the US producing goods for itself, is a stimulus that was beginning to show results.  I’m not sure if the next administration will continue this policy.

 It looks like Congress is going to try to print its way out of the current economic instability.  At some point it has to fail. The current consensus is that it should work, because it has always worked in the past.  It’s a little like a mouse going back to the trap one more time for that last morsel of cheese.