Friday, July 24, 2020

The Corona Virus Flatulence

Let figure it out, flatting the curve doesn’t fix anything, it just spreads it out. What would happen in 6 months probably will now happen in 12 months. Wearing a mask might slow down the virus. To flatten the curve, look at the area under the curve. This represents everyone that could be infected. The area under the original curve is still the same in the flattened curve. The outcome is not changed, it is only delayed.

People think that if they wear the mask, it prevents them from getting the virus. Ok suppose that it does, the virus still wants you. If you hide from it, it will find you. It just takes a little longer. The time it takes to get to you is what “flattening the curve” is all about. Not everyone is in the hospital at the same time.

The Corona virus has been hyped to panic mode for political reasons and it is no more lethal than the common cold for most people under the age of 70. Above that age it is a very serious deadly virus. Plus, there can be more than one cause of death when a person dies over the age of 70. The real odd thing is that old age is not considered as a cause of death.

When people see 145,000 deaths in the USA, their reaction lacks real perspective. About 2.7 million people die every year, that’s 1,700 a day. It has been reported that the total deaths for the current period matches pretty close to the deaths from last year. These deaths this year would have been attributed to other causes given the absence of the virus.

The anti-Trump newspapers could turn measles into the plague. Their coverage of the Corona virus deliberately squashes any glimmer of hope or optimism with the intent to panic the masses. The news rooms are not reporting the decrease in deaths each day, only the number of new cases and the total dead.

Most people when you mention the word "Rest Home” imagine some nice hacienda like setting with a bunch of seniors setting around playing cards drinking wine (don't confuse it with "Assisted Living"). A more realistic view is elderly who are senile, stroke disabled, incontinent, and bed ridden, with the room laced with lots of air freshener. Sad to say, many of these deaths can be a relief to relatives, footing the bill for rest home care, which range between $60,00 to $100,000 a year. Usually the infirmed end up in rest homes because they are a danger to themselves or others. Some of the elderly are lucky enough to avoid that, and they are the few.

If we project out about 45 days, the deaths from the virus should dwindle down to an acceptable level of about 200 a day. That is my best guess. And of course, the whole pandemic will be over the day after the election. At that point chicken little can come out and review the economic carnage. You don't have to social distance at places that will never reopen. The real suffering will start then.


dearieme said...

Some people cling to the daft notion that have that there must be a 'true' cause of death when a fat, old, very ill geezer dies.

In fact there must always be an arbitrary element to what gets written on the death certificate. What the coroner presumably really wants to know is that the old boy wasn't murdered or killed by incompetence or neglect.

I don't suppose there's a doctor in New York State prepared to write "killed by Governor Cuomo".

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi dearieme

I'm over the age of 70, so if I was to die from old age is no surprise. I just cannot figure how all of these elderly dying attributed to corona makes a real difference in the stats.

I look at every year as a free one for me. I'm going to die of something, and the news media is suggesting nobody is going to die the "the old fashion way" Its corona virus all the way.

The thing that irritates me, is that the sane people are too old to do anything about it.

Take care

dearieme said...

"the sane people are too old to do anything about it"


Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi dearieme

Maybe we are both getting too old, we seem to be making sense.

take care


Jim in SanMarcos you are wise beyond your years I have enjoyed your blog over the years Thank You Sir

moyerderek said...

Almost half the deaths in my state are from rest homes/nursing homes. Whatever you call them. My mom used to work in one. People died each week. The life expectancy is around 6 months. People don't go in nursing homes if they can go to the bathroom by themselves, or even minor help. Either because they are so mentally gone or can't do it physically. I would pretty much do anything else for my wife. So life expectancy is dropping by 6 months for these people, but 6 months of what? Lying in bed, not knowing where or even who you are?

This is looking like a long haul issue. I think that as long as the hospitals aren't near total capacity, we need to open the economy. Wearing masks is fine, it helps slow the spread and keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. But shutting businesses and paying people to sit at home and play video games or binge watch netflix is going to kill our economy or trash our currency (dollar). Printing money and giving it out willy-nilly is NOT a long term strategy, and this is a long term issue. Our savings earn 0%, and soon inflation will be 10% or more if we keep this 3 trillion dollars in spending each quarter.


Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Moryerderek

Very informative post. Ending up in a nursing home is my worst nightmare. I believe conditions are improving to where we can function normally. Not sure when this will turn out.

there is no real interest penalty for buying gold, silver, or platinum.

The thing not mentioned right now is the premium for purchase. Its $4 an ounce for silver right now. That's double of the regular cost.