Sunday, June 28, 2020

News Services panic the Nation on the Kung Flu virus

Since more testing is being done on the Corona 19 virus, the number of cases are highlighted in each news report. You have to google “Deaths Today [pick a State]" to find out that the number dying per day; the number of deaths is decreasing. This is very misleading reporting. The news services will always report total deaths and point out that the number is increasing.

Reading the reports, 20 million people are estimated to have had the Corona 19 virus in the USA. States are re-closing down because of the increase in cases reported. The way the press is handling this, is that if you test positive, you are going to die. And that is a farce. The other thing that is grossly misunderstood is the fact that if we all social distance and wear masks, this virus is going to go away and next year we will be Okay. Wrong! We are only slowing it down. We gain “herd immunity” when 80 percent of the population has had the disease; that’s about 260 million people. Most people think that if they stay at home and hunker down this will all blow over after a while. The trouble is, the time concept of how long, is missing; 6 months? 12 months? 2 years? As far as the virus is concerned 20 million served, 240 million to go. A face mask or social distancing may save you today, but the virus wants you and will wait patiently.

The other thing not mentioned, is that the less virulent strains of the virus may pass through the population at a faster rate. If it kills you, it goes no further, so we would expect it to be less deadly over time.

So, stay at home and run out of money or go back to work? This virus is not killing very many people under the age of 60.

If you are a Democrat, “We have to stay home until it is safe.” And while you’re at it, riot and tear down a monument or two.

If you are a Republican, accept the risk and open up. This disease could kill 130,000 (mostly over the age of 65). Heart disease and cancer kill 4 times more a year.

And look at the positive side, if we kill off all of the old farts (like me), Social Security won’t go bankrupt.

From an economic point of view, this shut down could ruin the country. The government has has screwed over the retirement income for those 65 and older by reducing the interest rates to zero. Compound interest is no longer the 8th wonder of the world. So if you're ready to retire, you have two nemesis; an under performing nest egg and the virus. So, go get a seat belt for your rocking chair and tour the world from your living room. Maybe you'll get to babysit the grandkids over the weekend ;>). If you stop listening to the news, you might just enjoy retirement. Influenza kills 60,000 every year in this country and no one bats an eyelash, go figure.


Sackerson said...

I saw a graffito on a bus seat long ago: 'Kill the old.' Then, presumably, the disabled, the long-term unemployed... maybe even anyone who is unhappy (there was a Monty Python animation about that.) Get the feeling the wrong side won WW2?

Or is it something to do wth how the elite have used globalization? How many of them knew China was a Communist country? Well I never!

dearieme said...

The essential problem with all commentary on the plague (including this comment, probably) is how little is known about it.

Does more people testing positive mean that more are infected or just the you're doing more tests? Nobody knows.

Does testing positive mean that you are carrying a dangerous infection? We do know the answer to that: nope. Apart from the necessity that some test results will always be wrong, there's the fact that the test doesn't even claim to be testing for infectivity. It's just a test for whether you are carrying the plague's form of RNA.

'We gain “herd immunity” when 80 percent of the population has had the disease': probably not - that result is based on a model that's likely to be too naive. Maybe the true figure is 20%. But the key point is, nobody knows.

"This virus is not killing very many people under the age of 60." As far as I can see that's true, though the guessing at Cause of Death maybe leaves a little room for doubt about the details. By the way there seems to be one partial exception to the general pattern: England. That's not the UK, but quite specifically England. Nobody has a clue why. Though I've made a suggestion myself.

My own feeling is that in the early days people and government were absurdly insouciant about the virus. Latterly they overrated the problem, being too ham-handed and broad-brush in response, panicked into damaging behaviour instead of doing the logical things of (i) promptly closing the borders, and (ii) doing what they could to protect the vulnerable i.e. the old and the ill.

The latter could only have been imperfect but then the perfect is the enemy of the good.

God knows the extent of the economic damage, the social damage, the health damage, the extra deaths, brought about by shutting down tracts of the economy. But that's the point: God may know but nobody else does. My guess is that the bill will be enormous. But it's only a guess.

Sackerson said...

There's also evidence coming out about younger people who have 'recovered' with permanent organ damage; and the median age for new cases in Florida has dropped from 55 to below 35.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi All,

The real point was the fact that the news media had gone from deaths per day to total deaths. The reason for that, is that deaths from the virus are declining. But if you want to panic people into the narrative "I know what's better for you" you emphasizes the swath of destruction. The press is trying to manipulate public opinion with reports that play down the good news of deaths declining and accentuate the fact that the number of cases has increased.

The news is very bias in this country. They want to portray the country as falling apart and in need of a new leader. they are using the corona virus as a weapon to defeat the Trump administration. It has nothing to do with the real corona virus facts. The press's goal is to panic the masses and make sure Trump is not reelected.

I find this a very bad way to try to win an election.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Sack

On your second post: I read that too. I think that the good news not mentioned is that the younger people getting the disease are not dying. The daily death count is dropping--you'd never know it listening to most news services.

As for the "Kill the old" graffiti, I believe that the young people of today think that us "old folks" have always been old. Boy are they in for a surprise.