Monday, February 25, 2013

Sequestration, Where is the Reality?

We hear people in government running around like Chicken Little yelling “the sky is falling,” over this sequestration. They’re claiming that the government is going to have to lay off thousands of people. Let’s see if I have this right, Congress is borrowing or printing 1.5 trillion this year to balance the budget and they cut 85 billion dollars of it? Then there is Ben Bernanke buying 85 billion dollars a month of real estate equity using “creative bookkeeping.”

Obama said again today, “The rich must pay their fair share.” I think they already do. The rich aren’t building businesses in the USA, they have moved overseas to increase their profit margin and reduce their labor costs. This country wasn’t built by stupid people but it kind of looks like its run by stupid people.

Every government agency has a budget, and at the end of the year, if they don’t spend it, they have to turn it back in to the government. Have you ever heard of any part of the government returning money because they didn’t have anything to spend it on? What would happen if instead of each department trying to spend the money, the person in charge got 20 percent of the budget not spent, as a year-end bonus split with the people under him?

When you examine government, it is not designed to cut costs, where is the incentive? They won’t go bankrupt. It’s not like they have to make a profit. Plus there is no accountability to the taxpayers.

My question: If 85 billion in cuts is going to upset the apple cart, then why are we spending 1.5 trillion more than we take in in taxes? What makes the 85 billion in cuts painful, but the 1.5 trillion in extra spending that is borrowed money, painless? Of course, if Congress doesn’t plan to pay back any of the 16 trillion dollars; I can see where the 85 billion is a real setback to their spending programs. They went to the trouble to print it and now they’re told they can’t spend it.

When funding is cut to a government agency, you get the negative get-even feedback "How dare Congress cut our budget, we will cut services that will maximize taxpayer discomfort." There is no Gung-ho push of a "Can Do" attitude, we end up getting, it's "My way or the highway." Common sense suggests if Congress cuts the funding, the government should cut the bureaucratic enforcement that goes with it, it's called downsizing. However, if a government agency wants to impress how important their part of the bureaucracy is, they don't downsize, they enforce the regulations more vigorously with less man power. The kids on the free lunch program can throw away their 35 cent apple every day while you wait in longer lines to check on to your flight---they win if you get upset, go figure!

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The Birdseed Indicator

I go to the pet store every three weeks to buy millet sprays for my Parakeet. Last year they were 3 for a dollar. This year the price went up to 45 cents a spray. Today they were 95 cents each. The treat part of my parakeet’s food budget has jumped from 17 dollars up to 52 dollars a year. I only paid 12 dollars for the bird, but the concept that the 52 dollars is just for bird seed, makes me see the world in a different light.

Of course, this must be a special case, and we should disregard the data. But what’s my reaction? The special treats for bird just aren’t going to happen as often anymore. The pet store raised their prices and now the bird has to make do with two sprigs of millet a month (Bird gets a tray of regular seed also, so he’s doing OK-- The millet is just his snack food)(Republicans don't starve their pets by waiting for handouts like Democrats)--(I'm joking here).

We’re not getting rid of the parakeet, but we will probably get rid of our cable TV. They want 15 dollars a month for 7 Spanish stations and 6 infomercial stations. I don’t speak Spanish, and this is supposed to the United States (figure that out). I can get PBS and the three news channels with just a TV antenna. What we are really looking at here is the fact; we are getting less for the same amount of money. Not to mention a reduction in the quality of the product being sold.

Of course, not everything is depreciating. I had a bunch of old gold and silver items that I’ve had for many years. A gold dental crown, two gold rings and a gold chain (20 grams in all) and about 3 ounces of scrap silver, like cuff links and tie clasps and took it down to the local coin dealer and got about $650 dollars which I converted to 20 silver maple leafs. My wife was so impressed; that she rummaged through her old junk jewelry (the stuff you get for Christmas) and we took that down and got another 20 silver maple leafs. It’s kind of surprising to see what you have just lying around the house that you wouldn’t think twice about.

Below is a picture that has been circulating around that I found humorous. Some of you have may have already seen it. It tends to suggest that there is a certain frustration with the way Congress is malfunctioning as of late.


I think we can readily agree that the present government doesn’t want to link COLAs to the price of millet for my parakeet. So from a government perspective, a bird in the hand will end up costing a lot more than two in the bush (from the Bush dynasty). On a positive note, the country can’t be going to the dogs, if we are too poor to afford bird seed ---Stand-by everyone, Obama will save us,---the question is, “Save us from what?”

Sunday, February 10, 2013

The Coming State of the Union Speech.

The Republicans in Congress are in a bad position. Whatever happens to the country, it will be their fault no matter what and the Democrats know it. Obama in his State of the Union speech will cover Immigration, gun control, jobs and the economy. His main theme will be “And by God, if the Republicans will work with us, we can get things done.” He got his health care through without Republican help; why does he need their help now? It brings to mind the phrase "It's payback time!"

Immigration reform will get some applause. Financing it would almost be impossible. These 11 million illegal immigrants if given the rights to stay would qualify for health care, food stamps and SSI at retirement age. They certainly wouldn’t be losing any retirement benefits from their home country. Of course when Congress finds out that they underestimated the number of illegals, by about 10 million, what's next? ---Online registration for citizenship? (Get them vote ready for the next election)

Employment is up; even the gangs in Chicago have over 300 positions to fill. These gang bangers will really appreciate the new health care plan coming out. You get pumped full of lead, you won’t need to worry about medical bills, and the hospital won’t either. Gang bangers will turn into hospital meal tickets; every procedure in the books will be run on them, before they’re mobile enough to escape (but I digress).

As for the economy, Obama will point out that we’re not out of the woods yet (yawn). My wife’s and I each have $200 less a month in our take home pay after the Social Security reset. That's about $4,800 of consumption that isn't going to happen for an economy in recession. On the plus side, the food stamp program is a tremendous success, they have renamed it to SNAP (I’m not kidding) (Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Program). So I guess Obama can claim to have put a little SNAP into the economy without stretching the truth.

It will be talk, pause and applause, over and over again. This is definitely not a beer, pizza, and chicken wing event.

Obama’s State of the Union speech will be followed by a Clint Eastwood special “The Republican Rebuttal” staring Florida's Senator, Marco Rubio (It won’t be as funny as the last one; I think they sold the chair).



If we review the Presidents last four years, a lot of Obama’s cabinet has moved on. It tends to suggest that these people felt their input wasn’t of much value and/or four more years of the same thing just wasn’t worth it (we’re not talking 20k a year jobs either). It will be interesting to take note of what is not talked about next Tuesday. The people who have left the oval circle are tight lipped. I guess the thought of a drone circling the house might keep it that way.

Sunday, February 03, 2013

We Haven't Hit Bottom Yet

I was listening to Suze Orman the other day. She was advising retirees to buy stocks with dividend yields to supplement their retirement income, since the bond market is returning so little interest. It kind of caught me by surprise. To paraphrase her, you need to take some risk on stocks because the return on bonds coupled with inflation forces the retirees to dip into their principle for living expenses.

The real estate market kind of bit the dust a while back, and there are still millions underwater wishing to unload their burden on some greater fool. I’ve mentioned before that rich people don’t have to wait for a good economy to buy a home, so no wonder home prices are rising. These people aren’t buying starter homes either (which would lower the housing price average).

The bond market has gotten so risk-less, that investors are almost paying borrowers to borrow money. Kind of reminds you of that company Solyndra that went BK, even with a Presidential endorsement. They didn't run out of money, they ran out of ideas on how to spend it.

The only real investment game left to play is the stock market. Our market in six years has risen up from 7,000 to 14,000. You kind of have to ask yourself, “Where’s all the good news that made this happen?”

In the 1929 crash, we had new and growing companies on the horizon, the light bulb (GE), radio (RCA), the automobile, the airplane, electricity, indoor plumbing, washing machines, cash registers, telephones (ATT) and more. RCA went from $18 dollars a share in 1924 to over $500 in 1929 and back to less than $3 per share in 1932. And that was when $750 dollars was a year's wages.

The years 1926 thru 1929 were miserable years as far as our economy was doing, but yet the stock market went up. Reality finally set in unannounced. See below graph for stock performance in the 1930’s.


Our present economy is a mess while the stock market is hitting new highs. Several countries are repatriating their gold stored abroad. Kind of makes you wonder what to expect even if things start to improve.

The really big thing to watch this year is the tax increases. Will they bring in the expected revenue? The answer is probably a big NO. That's what happened in the 1930’s when taxes were raised. So we get to experience what our grandfathers lived through. And remember, this time it will truly be different; it’s me, not my grandpa paying the bills.

Priceline looks like a good buy, 100 shares is only $68,000 and that's cheaper than 100 Google at $78,000. Maybe I should wait awhile; they could drop a bit like RCA did, way back when.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Pipe Dream (Reposted)

Here is a little something reprinted from March 9, 2009 that might help span the gap for my writers block right now. I should have something new by Sunday.

The government is going to stimulate the economy and create jobs with this multi Trillion dollar plan. It’s a little like the Marshall Plan in reverse. We are going to get the money before the disaster, not after it. The reasoning is, we get the free martini and the deck chair to sit in. Logic states that if you’re lounging in a deck chair enjoying the band, you can’t be standing in line to board the lifeboats.

Giving hundreds of billions to AIG is not going to increase jobs or stimulate the economy. This company is on life support, and we don’t even know why. This has to be a bill for previous consumption (financial insurance bets). We didn’t eat the meal, but we get to pay the bill. Add insult to injury, we have massive layoffs.

Interestingly there are two different types of layoffs. In the private sector, the layoffs are the result of a lack of consumption, car sales are in the dumps and real estate has gotten too real. In the government sector, the layoffs are a result of decreasing tax revenues, teachers and police. Notice if you’re in the latter group your workload increases and your wages don’t. It might be a good thing, less education makes for dumber criminals.

We couldn’t afford to spend the money when times were good and now we can??? It doesn’t take a pencil and paper to figure out that we have been shorted a couple of cases of whiskey, on this order!

The government isn’t creating new long term jobs. These jobs have to disappear when funding stops. Of course when you think about it, four years is a long term job in the government sector.

We need to invest in the private sector and focus on building items that people want to consume. Give that a thought or two. Look at all the business expenses the owner has to outlay for pension, health care, unemployment and taxes before he even hires one person. The government already has its hand in your till.

A lot of new entrepreneurs in California are starting pot farms; there are no government startup costs, fees or taxes. Plus the state offers a free vacation plan if you get caught.

A world war seems to have pulled us out of the depression in the 1930’s. The government was buying from the private sector, tanks ships planes and armaments. The private sector needed employees to fill the government order. So if we carry this forward to today, a government contract to purchase four million General Motors vehicles could be a hell of a stimulus to the economy. Give the cars to the people that didn’t act financially irresponsible. It’s their savings that the government is spending anyway.

Of course, it’s probably not in the cards and that's what a pipe dream is all about; there is no realty, just a lot of smoke and government mirrors.

Saturday, January 19, 2013

Inflation, Here Is How It Works

Picture a pie cut into 4 slices. The whole pie costs one dollar and each slice is 25¢. For simplicity, figure that the baker that made the pie had zero costs and the dollar represented his profit. 25¢ went for taxes, 25¢ went to savings, 25¢ went for groceries and 25¢ went for rent. There are 4 slices of pie that others are now entitled to. There is just one problem; the government needs 50¢ to keep the country moving so it prints an additional 25¢. There are now 5 claims for a slice of pie and only 4 slices available. This is what inflation is all about. The new price for a slice of pie is now about 6 cents more or 31¢ a slice.

This year the baker sells a whole pie for $1.25. Now 31¢ goes to taxes, 31¢ goes to savings, 31¢ goes to groceries and 31¢ goes for rent. Naturally the government will probably print an extra 31¢ to balance the budget. This can keep going on for a long time.

The basic reality here is that government is way over budget and not charging the taxpayer enough in taxes. In this case here, the baker pays one fourth of his income in taxes. To realistically balance the budget, he needs to pay 50 percent. This tax rate would be unacceptable to almost everyone.

Then, politicians create a new wrinkle like health care. The price of each slice cannot increase in price. Picture the same pie now cut into 8 pieces and each one is 25¢. The cost per slice is constant, the number of slices isn’t. Notice that to buy the whole pie, it now costs 2 dollars. If a person wants the same amount of pie, it now cost 50¢.

Then we have financing. Normally in order to raise additional funds to run the government, the Treasury issues bonds which savers purchase. The trouble is, not enough bonds are being sold at 1% interest. So the Federal Reserve steps in and purchases the bonds for currency printed. This theoretically is a zero sum game, the Federal Reserve can come in and redeem the T-bond and take the dollars back out of circulation whenever it deems it necessary. Or why bother? -- With 6 percent inflation and 1 percent interest on the bonds -- they are virtually worthless in 30 years.


Then there was the housing bubble collapse. Congress bailed out Fanny and Freddie and kept all banks solvent. The homes were sold for real cash. The new buyers were supposed to pay back that borrowed money over the 30 year period of the loan. The repaid loan money would be cash that wasn’t available for consumption. That didn’t happen, printed dollars paid off the delinquent loans with no time delay. A tremendous amount of additional currency, available for consumption, was put into the economy.

Then there was the TARP money and the GM retirement fund bailout. 40 million on food stamps and Obama care is coming.


What all this boils down to, is that an awful lot of virtual dollars have been spent on consumption trying to support an economic way of life that we cannot realistically afford to pay for. When the country has borrowed all of our savings and is paying us one percent interest and printing more dollars to pay the new bills, we end up with a smaller slice of pie. The person with no savings and a ton of debt has nothing to worry about, in fact they’ll enjoy the ride --- And that’s about everyone under the age of 45. The people who have saved their whole life for a nice retirement are the ones that take an inflation hit on their savings. The slice of pie that everyone is counting on for retirement may be considerably smaller than expected.

Bernie Madoff couldn’t print dollars, so when bad times came, he couldn’t deliver the interest rates demanded and his empire collapsed. The real peculiar thing was that these people that invested in his enterprise were rich up until the moment they found out that they had been had.

The phrase “Let the rich pay their fair share,” reminds me of another fool in exactly the same situation 224 years ago, that said “Let them eat cake,” neither suggestion offers a real solution. We won’t lose our heads over this, only our dollars in the bank.

As an aside, here is a cartoon from November of 2008 that still has a chuckle in it.






Copyright Jim Brubaker 2013

Monday, January 14, 2013

The Fall of Great Governments in History

From time to time "Anon On A California Mountain" leaves something in the comments section that IMHO deserves more exposure. Hope you like it.


Don't you find it amazing that there isn't a government on this planet that has a logical approach to finance, business or its country's economy? That there is not one government that operates on sound fiscal policy, has reserves, a surplus of cash, and spends less than it makes (from taxes or whatever)?

There is no model to aspire to.

History just continues to repeat itself, or rhyme. All of these empires, dynasties and countries on Earth that have amassed such great power, wealth and influence have all gone by the boards: Babylonia, Egypt, Chaldea, Persia, Rome, Portugal, Ottoman, Holland, Spain and England, to name a few.

Do you think Japan, Europe, the USA or China will NOT have the same fate as their predecessors? Current facts and events seem to point to the reality that they will.

Some empires faded due to war, conquest, pestilence, weather changes, etc. Yet, many faded due to the mishandling of finance within the government and poor oversight and/or proper support of their economies. And over-reaching and meddling in the private affairs of its citizens (aggressive taxation, regulation, etc.).

Man never seems to learn his lesson, does he? These civilizations have just faded to dust and blown away, and then new ones appear to follow the same cycle of action.

Some start out with excellent tenets. Like the USA: small government, Bill of Rights, Constitution, no income tax, support of a free market and entrepreneurship, property rights, rule of law, etc. Yet, somehow they get corrupted or altered and go by the wayside.

It is not that those in the past, or we in the present, didn't or don't have the basic knowledge or technologies to accomplish a strong and logical infrastructure that fosters creation, growth and longevity. We haven't lacked in the sciences or industry. I think we've been weak in the humanities to some degree in that science and technology have moved forward in quantum leaps, but the human studies have mostly stood still, as if frozen in time.

I believe that the human mind, human behavior and the human spirit are the areas that are least understood and form the common denominator behind the fall of most all of our past attempts at civilization. I think the answers lay in these areas... not in the areas of political science, quantum physics, math, medicine, economics, etc.

Note: I didn't include psychology, psychoanalysis or psychiatry above, as none of them are sciences (per definition) and neither has made any true inroads towards the goal of man understanding himself. They were all quickly converted into government control mechanisms anyway.

Man has demonstrated that he is capable of cooperation, creativity, production, prosperity, peace, etc. yet there is a virus or series of viruses that tend to break these virtues down over time on a micro level, which then does everyone in on the macro level.

However imbalanced, Man is on a slow but positive trajectory of evolution and progress. He's been going through governments and empires like a persistent inventor (e.g. Edison and his light bulb) in an attempt to get it right. He's had his dark moments and his bright ones.

Looks like we are closing the book on a bright period and ending off with another dark period.

The most important points are to somehow be prepared for whatever comes, as a few more of our empires come to their end (i.e., how do we preserve our wealth? have access to clean water and food and shelter? maintain or create quality in our lives?, etc.) and most importantly to be building a new civilization now, based on all of the positivity and knowledge of our past, so our kids are offered a new path to prosperity.


Copyright 2012 by Jim Brubaker

Tuesday, January 08, 2013

Precious Metals Vs Government Currency

Throughout history, silver and gold were the international currencies of trade. The historic ratio between the two metals was 16 to 1. Governments rose and fell, but either of these two metals buried in the back yard, preserved your wealth.

The odd thing about government currencies is that they start out strong and then end up being debased by the government. What happens is that a different metal is substituted for silver and gold with the implied value. If you were around in the 1970’s silver coinage disappeared in our country. There is a saying that “Bad money chases out good money.” In 1964 the US mint took silver out of our coins. It cost more to buy the silver than the coin was worth to produce. Then in 1982, if you collect pennies, you’ll notice that there are two different types of pennies, copper and copper clad. The price of copper had risen to where it was too expensive to mint copper pennies. The thing to observe here is that metals act like a barometer for the currency in circulation.

The present government can print all of the dollars they want to print, and the price of gold and silver will tend to reflect it, in their “rise in value.” It’s like being in a row boat and someone chops a hole in the bottom of it. The water is not rising, the boat is sinking. The apparent rise in the value of precious metals can be attributed to two things; the number of people wanting to buy it, and the supply available. That seems so obvious, but it really isn’t. The world population has doubled in the last 50 years. (Double click for a larger view)


There are twice as many people desiring precious metals. So the actual supply has been cut in half. Second, people have a lack of faith in paper money. Usually when a currency falters badly, owning gold is curbed or restricted. No government wants their currency dumped for precious metals. They will halt it immediately.

The world’s currencies are a mess. They kind of convert using gold and silver. If you do a bit of googling, you’ll find out that the world has about 40 billion ounces of silver and about 5.1 billion ounces of gold. So if we have 7 billion people in the world, there is enough silver for everyone, but not enough gold. Then if we bring in the precious metal Platinum, there are only 186 million ounces of it.

Let’s look at some historical ratios:
Silver trading to gold 16:1
Silver at $32 implies gold at $512
Gold at $1700 implies silver at $106

Silver trading to Platinum 50:1
Silver at $32 implies Platinum at $1600 and vice versa

Examine the total supply of precious metals:
Supply of silver to gold 8:1
If gold is fairly valued at $1700 then silver should be $212
If silver is fairly valued at $32 then gold should be $256

Supply of gold to Platinum 27:1
If gold is fairly valued at $1700 then platinum should be $45,900
If platinum is fairly valued at 1600 then that implies gold is only worth $59

Mull it over in your mind and about the only thing you can really agree on is that Platinum is way under priced. There is enough silver and gold in the world, where those buying and selling will determine the price and no one can really corner those markets. Probably three quarters of the world population doesn’t have $500 in savings so a one ounce gold purchase is out of the question--silver maybe. But we do have to realize that the doubling of the world population has probably doubled the demand for precious metals

At some point in time world governments are going to have to consider platinum as a medium of exchange in world markets. That’s not saying that they couldn’t miss the bus. The private sector will pick up on this even if they don’t. You can’t print dollars forever and not expect inflation. (Double click for a larger view)(Don't click if you are already depressed by what you see)
Look at the increase in the number of 100 dollar bills in just the last 10 years. I have to laugh when the reason given for doing so is to stave off deflation. It reminds me of the drunk clapping his hands in Central Park to keep away the elephants. When told there were no elephants in Central Park, he replied “See it works!” Any way you look at it, too much money is being printed worldwide to solve present financial problems and it just isn’t going to work. Some form of precious metals conversion will have to be in effect to facilitate world trade.

Another thing to realize is that silver has “become more valuable.” 100 oz. bars of silver are now worth $3,000. I was OK with a $300 dollar doorstop, now I feel like taking it to the bank for safe keeping. Its the same damn doorstop, but it's worth stealing now. I didn't do anything to it to make it worth more.

Platinum appears to be the biggest bang for the dollar. I bought gold when it was $300 and considered worthless as an investment. It’s still worthless as an investment, because it pays no interest. I can truthfully say the same thing for my savings account right now. Converting a portion of your gold holdings to platinum is not a bad deal right now, you get money back on the exchange. Platinum is cheaper than gold. It’s not an investment; it’s a bet that the government won’t stop printing dollars. And of course, there are only 186 million ounces of that precious shiny metal left (subtract what I finished buying yesterday).

Here is what the Platinum bars look like:
Expect to pay a $24 premium on the bars and a $48 premium on the coins.

Or you can play the game the Congressional way.


Copyright 2012 by Jim Brubaker


Monday, December 31, 2012

What's In Store For The New Year?

We have a Congress that can’t seem to get anything done. And the funny thing is if they do nothing, all of the previous laws start to expire. It reminds me of Cinderella at the ball with the prince and the approach of Midnight. In this case, we get the pumpkin.

Remember the Bush tax cut passed in 2001? In the house, 211 Republicans and 28 Democrats voted for it and 153 voted against it. In the Senate, 12 Democrats voted for the bill as did 45 Republicans. Two Republicans McCain and Chaffee voted against it with 31 Democrats. Bush signed it, no big deal. Now, today just trying to extend the tax cut has become a herculean effort. If you examine the Congress of 2001 and today’s Congress, they’re pretty comparable. Rumors have it, that Obama has said “My way or the highway.” It tends to support the idea that the square cog in the gears could be Obama as far as getting a deal in place.

Some mutton head decided that we needed to spread Democracy to the Arab world. I look for Syria’s president to get the Noble Peace prize this coming year. Egypt could have the first Islamic Democracy (that’s where you get to choose which trash can to throw your amputated limb in). Libya could have a new dictator in place with lots of military toys for sale (Got Stingers). Look for a new PBS documentary called “The Mushroom Cloud” shot on location in Iran and Israel, with a cast of millions.

In Europe, look for the Greek government to be overthrown—talk is cheap and the country is tired of the political rhetoric. The financial pain in Spain, Portugal and Ireland might spread to France. The economic problems facing the Euro is kind of like trying mix Ex-lax and Kaopectate ---you have to go when you don’t want to and can’t go when you want to. If the Euro goes kaput, look for unemployment rates to drop drastically in Europe.

In the US we could have one or two states (Illinois comes to mind) become insolvent and figure about 20 cities to file for bankruptcy.

Look for interest rates to keep artificially low. Common senses suggest that some loans are riskier than others (the reverse mortgage is no more). Of course credit card debt interest rates are a different story 20 percent rates for Visa and Master Card. But if you want to buy a home, 3% interest no down moves you in. And a lot of the government programs will give you upfront money for move in repairs (like a motorcycle and/or widescreen TV). Think I'm kidding, read this from 2008 A Dollar Down Moves You In

Consumption should plug along, no incentive to save money at these interest rates. This will be the year that we get used to living with less and spending more for it. The stock market is kind of an unknown item. Nobody can figure out what’s been holding it up for the last 4 years.

Obama care is starting to kick in. I went to a coin dealer the other day and found out that there is a provision in the bill that requires a 1099 on gold sales over $600. What part of health care is involved in gold sales? In an unrelated item that ties into the above, PayPal wants my Social Security number so they can issue me a 1099 for my eBay sales. That’s not my hand I feel reaching for my wallet.


Then if you’re familiar with the school lunch program in California, Obama’s wife has screwed that up royally. Kids aren’t crazy over whole wheat bread or skim milk, and fruit, euck, it goes in the trash, give me some fries and a burger. This smiling wife with great concerns has no idea that the kids think her school lunch menu sucks. The schools have to serve the stated menu to get reimbursed by the government. What do you do with a dozen trash cans of food that the kids won’t eat? My suggestion; the fat kids don’t get the free lunch!

More than one commentator has suggested that Obama take a course or two on Economics. I believe the suggestion comes from puzzling over his current economic policies.

The New Year will ring in with a different tone this year. It’s Republicans against the Democrats. Cash or Credit will be the issue. Congress and the President can pass all sorts of wonderful new laws. Paying for them will be the problem. The battle to raise the national debt limit could be the fight of the century. The country is divided, but it isn’t rich against poor as Obama would suggest, it's about living beyond our means.

Have a Happy New Year everyone.


Copyright 2012 by Jim Brubaker

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Is It Really Christmas?

Listening to some of the comments coming out of Washington, you have to wonder about what we are hearing. “The economy is getting better.” “We are trying to avoid a double dip recession.” And then there is the “Fiscal Cliff,” and Congress can’t come to a compromise to solve it. And then everyone packs up and goes home for Christmas.

Obama wants to tax the rich, no big deal, it isn’t going to raise the revenues we need and the amount won’t even cover the interest payment on the national debt. The big sticking point is that Obama wants the ability to raise the national debt limit without having to run it by Congress. I don’t think Congress will grant him that wish.

The economy seems to be picking up steam; most of it is tied to consumption. The main reason for this appears to be the low interest rates. Why save it? With the miracle of compound interest, it only takes about 144 years to double your dollar deposited today. The really laughable thing is the spread between high risk bonds and Treasuries is about 3 percent.

Interest rates in the bond market can’t go much lower but they have the built in ability to go higher. Examine the two graphs below. Graph one shows the value of a 1000 dollar 30 year bond issued at 3 percent interest. Notice what happens to it as interest rates jump up. Whoever holds these 30 year bonds will take a bath (you will get your principle back--if you can wait 30 years).Just a doubling of interest rates would be a 42 percent loss. Of course if rates went to 15%, you might want to buy these bonds, it would be a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Using a 5 year bond in the second example below, the damage isn’t as great if you need cash right away. The shorter the bond term, the less you get burned. With the eventual rise in interest rates look for home prices to drop and the interest on the national debt to increase.
Sooner or later, all of this quantitative easing is going to work itself into the stock market. There are still some companies out there paying a decent dividend. This is the last game in town, I look for the market in the New Year, to take off and go higher—for a while.

With high unemployment and a lot of seniors opting for early retirement, look for decreased tax revenues next year. That may be why there is no compromise over the fiscal cliff debate in Congress. We need the tax revenue, don't pass the tax cut, and the Republicans will be blamed for it. Of course the voter has a poor memory, the Bush tax cuts were a Republican thing, and come next election, the Democrats will get burned for not passing it.

Congress IMHO is a shambles. Everyone wants to talk and no one is listening. The key to the whole debate revolves around the national debt. Will the debt ceiling be raised? The Democrats can spend all they want, but if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, they’ll run out of money some time before inauguration.

The election was pretty well split even, half Republican and half Democrats. I would imagine that rich people populate both parties evenly. So the real issue seems to be where our tax money will be spent and can we keep spending at the current rate?

Christmas is coming next week, and it doesn’t look like Obama will get what he wanted from Santa. Putting coal in his stocking wouldn’t be politically correct. Congress is a little like Santa. We get something real from these Congressional elves that nobody had to pay for. --Inflation.

Merry Christmas everyone.


Copyright 2012 by Jim Brubaker