To quote Albert Einstein, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn't ... pays it.” But there is one caveat, only as long as the return rate is reasonable. As interest rates approach zero, there is less and less incentive to save for the future.
Banks can’t really function at very low interest rates, most of their borrowers are short term and most of their loans are long term. In the early 1980’s the Savings and Loan industry wrote 30 year loans at 6% and saw all of their short term depositors withdraw their money and put it in the money market funds at 9%. Old Bill Seidman got the S&L’s out of trouble at a cost of several billion to the taxpayer.
It becomes extremely difficult for insurance companies and retirement plans to fulfill promises made to people 20 years ago. Their projected income streams from anticipated rates have dropped drastically. If you examine the rule of 72 where one divides the interest rate into 72, the resulting number is the number of years it takes to double the principle. CalPERS is still claiming an 8.5% return on their investments which would indicate that the funds principle would double every 8.4 years if left untouched. Of course if we assumed a 3% return, that would be 24 years and if we went to 2% figure 36 years. So it isn’t hard to figure out that CalPERS is probably miss stating their returns on equity, hoping that interest rates begin to rise drastically. At the current interest rate returns, their past funding projections made 20 years ago will leave them broke inside of 12 years.
What are we left with? Retirement plans that won’t even be able to pay back what the retirees put into them and a national debt payment that will consume all of our income taxes paid-- just to cover the interest.
The real issue with very low interest rates, is that there is no incentive to save money for retirement, especially if there is inflation. In fact low interest rates will probably stimulate the average person to consume beyond their means and pay the money back with inflated dollars later.
One peculiar thing is that gold and silver are no longer just commodities. The person who chooses to possess gold and silver coins, is not losing much in interest. Short term bank deposits are paying ½ of 1 percent a year—the interest on 50k for a year won’t even buy lunch.
The stock market seems to be the last game in town to play right now. Where else can you put your money and make a dollar? Of course, at one time a dollar would buy 4 packs of cigarettes but I digress. There doesn’t seem to be any risk, the DOW continues to surge higher. Everybody is going to get rich, Oh goodie, I can hardly wait!
Compound interest was a tool used by private citizens to enhance their retirement years. The present interest rates sound very depressing to people about to retire, but let’s play the government game. Reduce your registered cash in the bank. Keep it in a safety deposit box and have a couple of co-owners (like your kids) who can empty it out if you check out early. File for disability before you retire, it increases your Social Security benefits. If you “deplete” your savings, you probably qualify for SSI in California. If you’re married and can get better benefits being single, claim being single, the bureaucrats only want proof of a marriage license if you want spousal benefits. It’s no crime to “think” that your husband is dead and you don’t know who the new guy in the house is. That’s an extra $40 of food stamps a month right there.
Right now, even Suzi Orman is suggesting ways seniors invest more aggressively for retirement. They need to take more risk to avoid losing their principle. I tend to agree with her, but I think the logic is flawed. The government is our biggest risk. This Ponzi scheme cannot continue forever.
I’m suggesting that silver and gold need to be considered as options in any retirement plan, and I am not selling a newsletter. I believe that silver is a better buy right now and I like it because 1000 ounces is kind of heavy about 70 lbs., so it is rather awkward to steal. But gold and platinum are other options of purchase.
The thing I like, is that the government can’t print gold and silver, so if they need more money, they can print it (debauch the currency) or tax your earnings or tax your home, but precious metals are invisible.
So here we are with a very realistic bit of theory from Einstein about compound interest. It kind of makes you wonder, who’s in charge? We know who gets to pay the bills.
Its a place undefined in time, a location that no one would ever willingly travel to. Are we there yet? The answer is yes. But its going to take 7 to 8 years for the reality to sink in.
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Sunday, November 10, 2013
The Economist, the Modern Fortune Teller
Newsrooms everywhere are consulting economists to get insight into the economy. Sounds logical, but is it realistic? The study of economics is not a science. It can be grouped in with other college classes like Fine Arts and Psychology. There is a quasi-science part to it that is similar to fire department forensics where the cause of a fire is determined after the fact. Economics is basically the study of theoretical models and by using them, try to determine what may be in store for us in the future by studying history. What it boils down to, an economist can explain what happened to the economy in the past using models and defend their argument. That is the only real part about economics, it explains the, who, what, why, when and where of past events.
The words “economy” and “economist” seem intertwined and they are not. The economy is the “here and now of how life is treating us.” Today’s economist is trying to figure out how to predict successful financial pursuits and avoid the black holes that are out there; and if he was any good at it, he would be fantastically rich.
When Congress decides to curb coal burning or the addition of alcohol to our gasoline, an economist can explain why China is buying our coal and why beef prices are rising. Notice however, economists do not have any real insight into the future. It is a little like a chess game, neither player is going to move into danger intentionally, the errors will be made from a lack of foresight into what other unknown items may be in play.
Our economy is in a state of flux, moving and connecting in different ways and changing imperceptibly to where it is barely noticed. The people in charge, Congress, collectively as a group, have an economic IQ of zero. They are all dependent on local groups in their State getting them reelected. So keeping the economy going, involves very little if any economic theory. A Congressman’s job is to spend your tax dollars and give his voters the most bang for their buck.
The real issue for the reader is to realize that there are three different outlets for information on economic theory that will be important to your future; the government, the news sources, and blogs. I severely question government sources, for one reason, governments always paper over bad news for the simple reason, the public reacts negatively to bad news. As for the news sources, there is a time lag, they only print what has already happened. The third group, blogs also have issues, you can shop for a point of view that agrees with your own.
Of the three, blog reports seem to be able to connect the dots that involve economic theory. If I use the Real Estate bubble as an example, I was considered dead wrong for 6 years and friends I knew avoided that topic with me. It’s very hard to be wrong for 6 years only to be proven right later.
So let’s boil it down to its essence. Economists as a whole, pretty much agree that the present government deficit spending cannot continue for much longer; it is a bubble. Printing money, whether done by a counterfeiter or the US government produce the same result. Product was consumed with no work effort. Congress has no real conceptual view of economic theory relative to butter or guns; all they want are satisfied voters.
So when you see some Economist being interviewed on TV, think to my example of a forensic arson investigator being asked about the future fires he may be investigating. He is an expert only on the fires that have happened that he has examined.
Remember the joke about three economists in one room with 5 different opinions? It’s not the 5 opinions that bother me, it’s the one that the media chooses to print— the nation is starved for good news and good news sells. Fortune tellers are a dime a dozen and they have a knack for telling you what you want to hear, it puts bread on their table.
Below is something that has nothing to do with the above, but having a picture or two in the blog adds a little color
While cleaning my desk, I found an old 1928 one dollar bill and thought I might share this old silver certificate with you and match it up with a newly printed note.
The newly printed dollars make no reference to being backed by silver or gold. I guess the "In God we Trust" on the back of the "newer" dollars was added as a hope and a prayer that all of this doesn't go up in smoke.
The words “economy” and “economist” seem intertwined and they are not. The economy is the “here and now of how life is treating us.” Today’s economist is trying to figure out how to predict successful financial pursuits and avoid the black holes that are out there; and if he was any good at it, he would be fantastically rich.
When Congress decides to curb coal burning or the addition of alcohol to our gasoline, an economist can explain why China is buying our coal and why beef prices are rising. Notice however, economists do not have any real insight into the future. It is a little like a chess game, neither player is going to move into danger intentionally, the errors will be made from a lack of foresight into what other unknown items may be in play.
Our economy is in a state of flux, moving and connecting in different ways and changing imperceptibly to where it is barely noticed. The people in charge, Congress, collectively as a group, have an economic IQ of zero. They are all dependent on local groups in their State getting them reelected. So keeping the economy going, involves very little if any economic theory. A Congressman’s job is to spend your tax dollars and give his voters the most bang for their buck.
The real issue for the reader is to realize that there are three different outlets for information on economic theory that will be important to your future; the government, the news sources, and blogs. I severely question government sources, for one reason, governments always paper over bad news for the simple reason, the public reacts negatively to bad news. As for the news sources, there is a time lag, they only print what has already happened. The third group, blogs also have issues, you can shop for a point of view that agrees with your own.
Of the three, blog reports seem to be able to connect the dots that involve economic theory. If I use the Real Estate bubble as an example, I was considered dead wrong for 6 years and friends I knew avoided that topic with me. It’s very hard to be wrong for 6 years only to be proven right later.
So let’s boil it down to its essence. Economists as a whole, pretty much agree that the present government deficit spending cannot continue for much longer; it is a bubble. Printing money, whether done by a counterfeiter or the US government produce the same result. Product was consumed with no work effort. Congress has no real conceptual view of economic theory relative to butter or guns; all they want are satisfied voters.
So when you see some Economist being interviewed on TV, think to my example of a forensic arson investigator being asked about the future fires he may be investigating. He is an expert only on the fires that have happened that he has examined.
Remember the joke about three economists in one room with 5 different opinions? It’s not the 5 opinions that bother me, it’s the one that the media chooses to print— the nation is starved for good news and good news sells. Fortune tellers are a dime a dozen and they have a knack for telling you what you want to hear, it puts bread on their table.
Below is something that has nothing to do with the above, but having a picture or two in the blog adds a little color
While cleaning my desk, I found an old 1928 one dollar bill and thought I might share this old silver certificate with you and match it up with a newly printed note.
The newly printed dollars make no reference to being backed by silver or gold. I guess the "In God we Trust" on the back of the "newer" dollars was added as a hope and a prayer that all of this doesn't go up in smoke.
Sunday, November 03, 2013
Entitlements the Unwritten Bill of Rights
I hear time and time again that health care is no longer affordable. I don’t see it. Go back 100 years to 1913 did anyone complain about health care being unaffordable? What has changed over that time are the amount of different services that are now available that weren’t back then. The real truth to the matter is that today’s patient wants all of the services available but doesn’t have the means to pay for them all. You kind of have the ability to pay, if you are willing to do without something else that you usually consume. We are not discussing health care insurance, only the cost of general health care treatment.
Have you ever taken a pet to the vet for treatment? You get an itemized list of procedures that can be performed and the cost before anything is done. You choose the amount you are willing to spend first, pay it and the vet does what is requested of him. It is considered inhumane for our health institutions not to treat a patient because of a person’s lack of funds. You can see how such a philosophy preached as a business model would have a veterinary clinic facing bankruptcy their opening week.
Then we have 40 million people on food stamps and some Congress man stands up and says a family of 4 can’t feed themselves on a food stamp budget of $668 a month. So if we eliminate food stamps to 40 million people, will we have 40 million funerals in the following year from starvation? I think not. There might be a hell of a drop in cigarette, alcohol, drugs, cable TV and cell phone consumption. These food stamp allotment quota settings are kind of like a bill of entitlements to the poor. Have kids don’t get married and you are entitled to a bigger share. Dad can come home on the weekend and be with the kids if he isn’t starting another family on the other side of town.
Then on top of that the government claims the health insurance companies are gouging us and making huge profits. There wasn’t one peep about auto insurance premium prices being too high. And no one complains about the millions of people driving with no car insurance. When the health insurance companies go out of business, you’ll realize how bad a government plan can be run when there is no financial accountability (they don’t have to make a profit).
The real issues with government programs are not about affordability, it’s all about entitlements. Those that can afford to pay, will pay more and get less; those that can’t afford to pay, will get something for nothing.
I’d like to point out that my prediction that the health insurance companies would drop individual policies back in October 28, 2012 is now happening nationwide. An insurance company can’t make money insuring people with a preexisting condition.
I predict that Obamacare has less than 6 months before it is considered a hot potato by even the Democrats. We have created a Medicare monster of free health care entitlements for the poor and those gaming the system while at the same time this new tax will enrage the young voters of this nation. From the time I was 20 until the time I was 55 and got company health insurance, I probably spent about $800 on doctors, and most of it was for eye glass prescriptions. So I had 100K left over to spend on other goodies during those 25 years.
The real issue is, nobody in government is paid to think, if they were, they’d be out of a job. 40 million people on food stamps is beyond being absurd, and a health care system that is free to everyone pleading poverty? Has anyone figured out who is paying the bills? Maybe it’s about time we tarred and feathered a Congressman or two. Of course if we told them it was part of their Congressional health care plan, they'd probably all want the procedure performed.
I'm going to miss the Aflac duck commercials
Have you ever taken a pet to the vet for treatment? You get an itemized list of procedures that can be performed and the cost before anything is done. You choose the amount you are willing to spend first, pay it and the vet does what is requested of him. It is considered inhumane for our health institutions not to treat a patient because of a person’s lack of funds. You can see how such a philosophy preached as a business model would have a veterinary clinic facing bankruptcy their opening week.
Then we have 40 million people on food stamps and some Congress man stands up and says a family of 4 can’t feed themselves on a food stamp budget of $668 a month. So if we eliminate food stamps to 40 million people, will we have 40 million funerals in the following year from starvation? I think not. There might be a hell of a drop in cigarette, alcohol, drugs, cable TV and cell phone consumption. These food stamp allotment quota settings are kind of like a bill of entitlements to the poor. Have kids don’t get married and you are entitled to a bigger share. Dad can come home on the weekend and be with the kids if he isn’t starting another family on the other side of town.
Then on top of that the government claims the health insurance companies are gouging us and making huge profits. There wasn’t one peep about auto insurance premium prices being too high. And no one complains about the millions of people driving with no car insurance. When the health insurance companies go out of business, you’ll realize how bad a government plan can be run when there is no financial accountability (they don’t have to make a profit).
The real issues with government programs are not about affordability, it’s all about entitlements. Those that can afford to pay, will pay more and get less; those that can’t afford to pay, will get something for nothing.
I’d like to point out that my prediction that the health insurance companies would drop individual policies back in October 28, 2012 is now happening nationwide. An insurance company can’t make money insuring people with a preexisting condition.
I predict that Obamacare has less than 6 months before it is considered a hot potato by even the Democrats. We have created a Medicare monster of free health care entitlements for the poor and those gaming the system while at the same time this new tax will enrage the young voters of this nation. From the time I was 20 until the time I was 55 and got company health insurance, I probably spent about $800 on doctors, and most of it was for eye glass prescriptions. So I had 100K left over to spend on other goodies during those 25 years.
The real issue is, nobody in government is paid to think, if they were, they’d be out of a job. 40 million people on food stamps is beyond being absurd, and a health care system that is free to everyone pleading poverty? Has anyone figured out who is paying the bills? Maybe it’s about time we tarred and feathered a Congressman or two. Of course if we told them it was part of their Congressional health care plan, they'd probably all want the procedure performed.
I'm going to miss the Aflac duck commercials
Sunday, October 27, 2013
The Health Care Application
I was just surfing the net and went to the healthcare.gov web site to see what all the talk was about lately. That site referred me to the California web page which caught me a bit off guard with the length of the application.
Then from there, we go to the application for the first person and that is three pages plus. And if it is a 4 person family, there are a lot more pages to fill out---18 of them. I don’t see anyone wanting to fill this information out unless it is money in their pocket. Why even bother?
Page one, "Are you pregnant?"
Page two informs you;"If you don't file taxes, you can still qualify for free or low cost insurance through Medi-Cal."
Page three; "Do you have a job?"
What bothers me about the form, is the fact that you're not buying health insurance, you're documenting that you don't have the funds to pay for it. I've never had any trouble buying something I wanted. You usually want to know the price before you buy. I walked into a service station one time to get a tire repaired and the guy pulled out a notepad and started writing down all the charges and by the time he finished, the total was $24. Further down the street, another mechanic looked at me in the eye and said, "Pay me what you think it is worth." I got the tire fixed and paid him $15.
After you submit all of this information they will present you the monthly cost of your plan. You're not going to be able to tell them you don't want it because it costs too much. They have your name, Social Security number, cell phone number and the address of where you live. You will get the bill if one is generated. With the system armed with all of that new information, you could get nailed for wants and outstanding warrants, alimony and all sorts of other goodies. Do you get the feeling that the government is not being very transparent with this program? Put another way, are we being conned?
It kind of reminds me of when FDR started the Social Security retirement plan. Before that time if you owed taxes, they had no way of collecting; they didn't even know who you were. With the Social Security tax, they got your employer to deduct it from your wages before you got paid. From there taxation became a lot simpler for the government to execute; the employer had to follow the government directives.
So here is what it boils down to. If you don't have insurance, they will withhold the (Bronze, Silver or Gold--your choice) amount from your paycheck and you will have to fill out a form each year to get a refund for overpayment. Why do I think this will happen about April 15th every year?
The real question for this year, Can half of the people filling out the form complete it correctly enough to apply for benefits successfully? It sounds like a very simple task doesn't it? This is the real hurdle not fully comprehended or anticipated by the government bureaucrats.
As a post script, I don't have to worry about Obamacare, I'm 67 years old. The youth of this country (those from the age of 18 to 45) are going to enable Congress to kick the can further down the road with a whopping $4,000 a year tax increase. Call it whatever you want, the Supreme Court got it right, it's a tax.
Then from there, we go to the application for the first person and that is three pages plus. And if it is a 4 person family, there are a lot more pages to fill out---18 of them. I don’t see anyone wanting to fill this information out unless it is money in their pocket. Why even bother?
Page one, "Are you pregnant?"
Page two informs you;"If you don't file taxes, you can still qualify for free or low cost insurance through Medi-Cal."
Page three; "Do you have a job?"
What bothers me about the form, is the fact that you're not buying health insurance, you're documenting that you don't have the funds to pay for it. I've never had any trouble buying something I wanted. You usually want to know the price before you buy. I walked into a service station one time to get a tire repaired and the guy pulled out a notepad and started writing down all the charges and by the time he finished, the total was $24. Further down the street, another mechanic looked at me in the eye and said, "Pay me what you think it is worth." I got the tire fixed and paid him $15.
After you submit all of this information they will present you the monthly cost of your plan. You're not going to be able to tell them you don't want it because it costs too much. They have your name, Social Security number, cell phone number and the address of where you live. You will get the bill if one is generated. With the system armed with all of that new information, you could get nailed for wants and outstanding warrants, alimony and all sorts of other goodies. Do you get the feeling that the government is not being very transparent with this program? Put another way, are we being conned?
It kind of reminds me of when FDR started the Social Security retirement plan. Before that time if you owed taxes, they had no way of collecting; they didn't even know who you were. With the Social Security tax, they got your employer to deduct it from your wages before you got paid. From there taxation became a lot simpler for the government to execute; the employer had to follow the government directives.
So here is what it boils down to. If you don't have insurance, they will withhold the (Bronze, Silver or Gold--your choice) amount from your paycheck and you will have to fill out a form each year to get a refund for overpayment. Why do I think this will happen about April 15th every year?
The real question for this year, Can half of the people filling out the form complete it correctly enough to apply for benefits successfully? It sounds like a very simple task doesn't it? This is the real hurdle not fully comprehended or anticipated by the government bureaucrats.
As a post script, I don't have to worry about Obamacare, I'm 67 years old. The youth of this country (those from the age of 18 to 45) are going to enable Congress to kick the can further down the road with a whopping $4,000 a year tax increase. Call it whatever you want, the Supreme Court got it right, it's a tax.
Sunday, October 20, 2013
Obama Care---Do the Math
Let’s just figure out, who is in a hurry to sign up for Obamacare? If you are at high risk from a previous or current health condition, chances are any insurance is unaffordable and this would supplement what health care you currently can afford. If you are currently collecting food stamps, we can assume that health care premiums are not a high priority from a budget stand point, but if it is free or highly subsidized, you mise well apply for it.
There are three health plans, Bronze, Silver and Platinum. If we look at the Bronze plan, it’s about $150 a month and there is a $5,000 deductible (the figures on this are all over the map, its a little like buying a car). If you’re broke and on food stamps, where does the $5,000 come from for the deductible? Better yet, where does the $150 a month premium come from?
So the flood of people that will sign up for health insurance, need help in paying for what they are already receiving. When you hear someone say, “I can’t pay for all of my medications and treatments, I need health insurance,” forget the words health insurance, they are past that. They need a government subsidy. The real definition of insurance is to pay over time for an event that may occur that you could not afford to pay for in a very short time. The idea that if you can’t cover the cost of your health care, the government should step in to make up the difference, is not what insurance is all about.
A majority of people who are uninsured and not sick, are in no real hurry to sign up for health care. Maybe it will be like taxes, the employer will withhold the monthly premium charge from your paycheck. Of course if you don't have a job, that's the least of your worries. Got Health Insurance?
There are three health plans, Bronze, Silver and Platinum. If we look at the Bronze plan, it’s about $150 a month and there is a $5,000 deductible (the figures on this are all over the map, its a little like buying a car). If you’re broke and on food stamps, where does the $5,000 come from for the deductible? Better yet, where does the $150 a month premium come from?
So the flood of people that will sign up for health insurance, need help in paying for what they are already receiving. When you hear someone say, “I can’t pay for all of my medications and treatments, I need health insurance,” forget the words health insurance, they are past that. They need a government subsidy. The real definition of insurance is to pay over time for an event that may occur that you could not afford to pay for in a very short time. The idea that if you can’t cover the cost of your health care, the government should step in to make up the difference, is not what insurance is all about.
A majority of people who are uninsured and not sick, are in no real hurry to sign up for health care. Maybe it will be like taxes, the employer will withhold the monthly premium charge from your paycheck. Of course if you don't have a job, that's the least of your worries. Got Health Insurance?
Monday, October 14, 2013
The National Debt Disconnect
Many people are trying to attract the public's attention to the dangerous size of the National Debt. The trouble is, it doesn’t seem to be working. Congress has a big brouhaha every time it comes to raising the debt ceiling. It eventually gets raised and business and life go on as usual.
The real problem, is the disconnect between the average person and the national debt. The country has always functioned as expected and this debt has never interfered with day to day existence. If interest rates rise, the consumer knows they will pay more for borrowed money. If inflation increases, people are prepared to pay more for groceries. Big deal if Congress raises the debt limit, they’ve been doing it for decades. Many people in Congress have warned that the county could go bankrupt if steps aren’t taken to curb current spending and they have been feeding that “rant” to the public for years. None of the dire predictions has come true, so why even listen to these worry warts? You certainly won’t get elected to Congress promising your constituents a half a loaf of bread, when they expect a seven course meal.
Courtesy USDebtClock.org
The average person has no idea or can even envision the net effects of government insolvency nor do they even care. Their group solution would be; “Do what you did before to keep the government going, only do more of it.” Government Bankruptcy is so far from their real world of football, work and raising a family that it borders on absurdity. People look at government sequestration and the budget cuts, and are really surprised how much gets cut when you try to cut the budget by 80 billion dollars a year. Everyone get indignant when Congress shuts down the parks and monuments for lack of funds. And if lawmakers attempted to cut anyone’s benefits, God help whoever made the attempt.
The Tea Party Republicans are coming to the conclusion, they have nothing to lose by standing firm. If the Hoi Polloi can’t comprehend government Ponzi financing, then let’s take the government down the hard way and end the Mickey Mouse bookkeeping. It’s the Democrats that have the most to lose; the 17 trillion dollars of paper IOU’s (already spent money) could go poof because of a stalemated Congress. Wimpy ain’t going to bum another hamburger for payment later. As with any Ponzi scheme, there won’t be anything left for either party to give away.
A government collapse is similar to taking an airline flight. You wouldn’t get on a plane if you though there would be problems. Many years ago, my dad got caught on a flight that landed in Amsterdam. The airline had gone broke between stops. The pilot had to pass the hat for gas money among the passengers just to get to London. In this example the solution was simple, but it gets a tad more complex when the organization that supports and issues the currency, is insolvent.
The National Debt is like a giant candy store. The kid buying the candy has no concern over how the store owner runs the business. Therein, is where the problem lies.
The real problem, is the disconnect between the average person and the national debt. The country has always functioned as expected and this debt has never interfered with day to day existence. If interest rates rise, the consumer knows they will pay more for borrowed money. If inflation increases, people are prepared to pay more for groceries. Big deal if Congress raises the debt limit, they’ve been doing it for decades. Many people in Congress have warned that the county could go bankrupt if steps aren’t taken to curb current spending and they have been feeding that “rant” to the public for years. None of the dire predictions has come true, so why even listen to these worry warts? You certainly won’t get elected to Congress promising your constituents a half a loaf of bread, when they expect a seven course meal.
Courtesy USDebtClock.org
The average person has no idea or can even envision the net effects of government insolvency nor do they even care. Their group solution would be; “Do what you did before to keep the government going, only do more of it.” Government Bankruptcy is so far from their real world of football, work and raising a family that it borders on absurdity. People look at government sequestration and the budget cuts, and are really surprised how much gets cut when you try to cut the budget by 80 billion dollars a year. Everyone get indignant when Congress shuts down the parks and monuments for lack of funds. And if lawmakers attempted to cut anyone’s benefits, God help whoever made the attempt.
The Tea Party Republicans are coming to the conclusion, they have nothing to lose by standing firm. If the Hoi Polloi can’t comprehend government Ponzi financing, then let’s take the government down the hard way and end the Mickey Mouse bookkeeping. It’s the Democrats that have the most to lose; the 17 trillion dollars of paper IOU’s (already spent money) could go poof because of a stalemated Congress. Wimpy ain’t going to bum another hamburger for payment later. As with any Ponzi scheme, there won’t be anything left for either party to give away.
A government collapse is similar to taking an airline flight. You wouldn’t get on a plane if you though there would be problems. Many years ago, my dad got caught on a flight that landed in Amsterdam. The airline had gone broke between stops. The pilot had to pass the hat for gas money among the passengers just to get to London. In this example the solution was simple, but it gets a tad more complex when the organization that supports and issues the currency, is insolvent.
The National Debt is like a giant candy store. The kid buying the candy has no concern over how the store owner runs the business. Therein, is where the problem lies.
Sunday, October 06, 2013
The Art of Compromise
I get a little fed up when I hear the President say no compromise on the budget. They are going to wait for the Republicans to cave in and agree to what they have offered. Rumors abound that, the Speaker of the House, John Boehner said that he would never let the Congress go so far as default on the national debt. Then you hear the Democrats state like a litany; "This will hurt the Republicans real bad when it comes election time."
Think about it for a minute. Any horse trader has enough smarts not to divulge his settlement terms. So if Obama thinks that Boehner is going to blink, he’s miscalculated. Another thing why would the Republicans lose votes? Voters, who want to give money out to every bleeding heart cause, don’t typically vote Republican.
We’ve had about 4 days of this mess so far, and if you listen to the Democrats, this is just horrible for the country. It’s as if we have been suffering through this for months when they describe the fallout. You’d think that half of the kids on the free lunch program have starved to death by missing 4 meals. A lot of government employees have been furloughed, but when things get back to normal, these people will get paid for the days they didn’t work --can you beat that?
Then if Congress lets this go on for two more weeks, we hit the debt ceiling. At that point it is no longer Democrat against Republican, it becomes a discussion on how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin. The concept borders on folly, but everyone is playing the game; “If we don’t write another IOU, the full faith and credit of the USA will be ruined.” How many free hamburgers does Wimpy get to eat with a promise to pay at a later date? This is what kicking the can down the road is all about, avoid the reality of spending beyond our means.
Is there a deal to be made where both parties can show that they got something in the bargain? Most probably. But if there is no compromise, both sides end up with nothing. In this case, both sides loose the ability to buy something with nothing while getting thanked by their constituents for doing it.
One thought to consider; the people with a solution for every problem, are usually a major part of the problem. Here’s hoping they can get together and come to a compromise.
Below is a picture that seems fairly straight forward until you realize that when you borrow money, they charge you interest. You could say from here, it gets real interest-ing. Kicking that can down the road is looking better every passing day. That doesn't say much for facing up to reality.
Think about it for a minute. Any horse trader has enough smarts not to divulge his settlement terms. So if Obama thinks that Boehner is going to blink, he’s miscalculated. Another thing why would the Republicans lose votes? Voters, who want to give money out to every bleeding heart cause, don’t typically vote Republican.
We’ve had about 4 days of this mess so far, and if you listen to the Democrats, this is just horrible for the country. It’s as if we have been suffering through this for months when they describe the fallout. You’d think that half of the kids on the free lunch program have starved to death by missing 4 meals. A lot of government employees have been furloughed, but when things get back to normal, these people will get paid for the days they didn’t work --can you beat that?
Then if Congress lets this go on for two more weeks, we hit the debt ceiling. At that point it is no longer Democrat against Republican, it becomes a discussion on how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin. The concept borders on folly, but everyone is playing the game; “If we don’t write another IOU, the full faith and credit of the USA will be ruined.” How many free hamburgers does Wimpy get to eat with a promise to pay at a later date? This is what kicking the can down the road is all about, avoid the reality of spending beyond our means.
Is there a deal to be made where both parties can show that they got something in the bargain? Most probably. But if there is no compromise, both sides end up with nothing. In this case, both sides loose the ability to buy something with nothing while getting thanked by their constituents for doing it.
One thought to consider; the people with a solution for every problem, are usually a major part of the problem. Here’s hoping they can get together and come to a compromise.
Below is a picture that seems fairly straight forward until you realize that when you borrow money, they charge you interest. You could say from here, it gets real interest-ing. Kicking that can down the road is looking better every passing day. That doesn't say much for facing up to reality.
Sunday, September 29, 2013
New Retirement Concepts of Taxation
I figured when I retired, I’d have my home paid off, 300k in
the bank and $1,200 in Social Security in monthly income. Part of my retirement was going to be from my
nest egg of 300K. I had figured that I
should be able to get about 8 to 10 percent on my invested savings; figure about
$2,000 to $3,000 per month. I accomplished
my goals, but that 300K in the bank now only generates about $400 per
month. So basically, I’m not
retiring. I like my present standard of
living and I still have my health.
The government has two ways of taxing; the obvious one, earnings and the not so obvious, savings. There are two basic categories of voters;
those with savings and those with none.
If you have nothing, you are only taxed when you earn a paycheck or buy
something taxable. These people have
support life-lines like Social Security, food stamps, health care and supplemental
SSI---any wonder why they vote Democrat?
Inflation is a despicable invisible tax on savings. Every "debt ceiling" dollar printed today over time,
will make your hard earned savings put away today, worth a lot
less in the future. Notice that if the government wants
to borrow money, they have to borrow from people who have money. That sounds
obviously simple, but it escapes most people; if you have nothing, they can’t
borrow from you. Now there is also a
third method of taxation that involves controlling the interest rates on
bonds. Bond rates are normally a
function of risk. The more risk, the
higher the rate. But if the government
comes in and takes the risk out of the market by guaranteeing the loans and
printing as many dollars as necessary to do it, they can keep interest rates
extremely low. And no, they are not giving the banksters free money, they are
just making good on the bad loans made to Joe Six-pack. In essence Joe Six-pack borrowed your money
in the bank and spent it on a house and now can’t pay it back. All the government
did was pay off his non-performing loan and keep the bank from collapsing due to gross incompetence and mismanagement.
By controlling the interest rates in this new fashion, many
silver foxes can’t retire because of the lack of generated interest
income. Instead of 30K interest on their
nest egg of 300K, they get 5K. Any way
you look at it, the retiree is losing 25K a year. I think this is why the investment in housing
rentals has skyrocketed. 300K invested
in the housing market should return more than 5K a year and 24K wouldn’t seem
unreasonable. The only trouble I see with
this, the home is not easily convertible to cash if circumstances of old age dictate it (waiting for the market to come back might not be an option). Notice however, if you give the house to your
kids in a trust with the rent payable to you for life, future rest home
expenses couldn’t claw back on the principle invested in the home that was given
to the kids.
This present administration's new approach to economics and finance, has one problem,
the economy is not reacting as anticipated.
Retirees have a lot less money to spend and students have a lot more (As
long as they’re students). There are few
high paying jobs, the kids are moving back home and rentals go unrented. New
cars are selling at a good clip, nothing down and you pay the sales tax of 10%
before you drive out. Try and sell a used car; find someone with $2000 in the
bank to purchase one. People are trading
in their old cars because they can’t afford to get them repaired. Do the math, $1,800 for a new transmission or
$800 “drive out” for a new car? Rumor has it you can get a free cell phone when
you sign up for food stamps. In the 1930's they didn't have food stamps, they had soup kitchens--but I digress.
So, to tie up the loose ends, what happens next? The government has taken away my independence
by robbing me of the interest I anticipated in retirement. Of course they will blame it on “Wall Street
and the Banksters” who are just as abstract as the name “Uncle Sam”—these imaginary individuals offer
us a focal point for our anger and are not people you can grab by the neck and
choke some sense into. In the coming weeks Congress has to face
the budget bill, the national debt ceiling and a President with a super-sized ego
that refuses any compromise. The President wants to tax the rich; you know, the
people like you and me, who saved $100 a month for 40 years. The neat thing if the government comes to a
stop, they can’t spend any more of what they don’t have. And that sounds very weird. Plus, if you think about it, whatever they were spending, really wasn't theirs to spend anyways.
Obama kind of reminds me of the guy rowing a boat as fast as
he can. Someone asked him where he was going and he said “I’m not sure, but we
are making very good time!”
Monday, September 16, 2013
Will We Stop 1929 From Repeating
Here is a reprint of mine from a few years back, that is still relevant.
The Great Depression was a financial event. There was no war, earthquake or hurricane. The financial system ruptured and just about died. People stood in line to withdraw their saving from the banks. Thousands of banks collapsed. People, worldwide, lost their life savings. It was contended that the runs on the banks are what brought the system down. Upon closer examination, it’s easy to extrapolate the banks eventual demise from the poor economic conditions. The money borrowed could not be paid back by the unemployed. Many people were forced to live off of their savings (if they had any left).
In order to stem bank runs, the government came up with FDIC insurance. The Glass Segal act put this into effect January 1, 1934. This was after the horses escaped and the barn door was locked. If your bank met muster, you qualified for insurance and if it didn’t, you were toast. It didn’t cost the government a dime.
Let’s bracket that date January 1, 1934; either 100% of the population had collectively lost 80 percent of their wealth, or 80 percent of the population lost everything and 20 percent lost nothing. Almost everyone fell somewhere in-between the two categories. There was an obvious destruction of savings that was catastrophic in nature. This money wasn’t destroyed; it had been spent very foolishly over the previous 10 years on consumption. If you paid one million dollars for a dog or a wedding, you got your money’s worth, although I would argue that.
Fast forward to today. Bank deposits worldwide are insured. No one has lost a dime. The last part of the Kondratieff wave has to do with the contraction of the money supply and the repudiation of debt. The US Treasury is expanding the money supply while debtors have no problem walking away from their obligations. The most important thing to realize about the last part Kondratieff cycle is the end result. It destroys the obscenely rich and returns financial systems to a more normal functioning state. Bernanke is trying to preserve the status quo. The Fed is going to print us into prosperity.
Food prices have double this year. It is a little hard to see in some cases, the giant size potato chips bags, now fit in a lunch box. And then there is the specter of deflation. Autos and homes are just not selling.
Even if you have a job, your wages are not increasing, but your cost of living is increasing. So you dip into your savings, which seem to have lost a lot of buying power. Maybe that’s what deflation is all about, you spend until you are broke and then do without. We can now drive to the poor house in style. It kind of sets your mind at ease, doesn't it?
The Great Depression was a financial event. There was no war, earthquake or hurricane. The financial system ruptured and just about died. People stood in line to withdraw their saving from the banks. Thousands of banks collapsed. People, worldwide, lost their life savings. It was contended that the runs on the banks are what brought the system down. Upon closer examination, it’s easy to extrapolate the banks eventual demise from the poor economic conditions. The money borrowed could not be paid back by the unemployed. Many people were forced to live off of their savings (if they had any left).
In order to stem bank runs, the government came up with FDIC insurance. The Glass Segal act put this into effect January 1, 1934. This was after the horses escaped and the barn door was locked. If your bank met muster, you qualified for insurance and if it didn’t, you were toast. It didn’t cost the government a dime.
Let’s bracket that date January 1, 1934; either 100% of the population had collectively lost 80 percent of their wealth, or 80 percent of the population lost everything and 20 percent lost nothing. Almost everyone fell somewhere in-between the two categories. There was an obvious destruction of savings that was catastrophic in nature. This money wasn’t destroyed; it had been spent very foolishly over the previous 10 years on consumption. If you paid one million dollars for a dog or a wedding, you got your money’s worth, although I would argue that.
Fast forward to today. Bank deposits worldwide are insured. No one has lost a dime. The last part of the Kondratieff wave has to do with the contraction of the money supply and the repudiation of debt. The US Treasury is expanding the money supply while debtors have no problem walking away from their obligations. The most important thing to realize about the last part Kondratieff cycle is the end result. It destroys the obscenely rich and returns financial systems to a more normal functioning state. Bernanke is trying to preserve the status quo. The Fed is going to print us into prosperity.
Food prices have double this year. It is a little hard to see in some cases, the giant size potato chips bags, now fit in a lunch box. And then there is the specter of deflation. Autos and homes are just not selling.
Even if you have a job, your wages are not increasing, but your cost of living is increasing. So you dip into your savings, which seem to have lost a lot of buying power. Maybe that’s what deflation is all about, you spend until you are broke and then do without. We can now drive to the poor house in style. It kind of sets your mind at ease, doesn't it?
Wednesday, September 04, 2013
An Inept President Trying Cover Up The Mess At Home
Turning on the news, everyone is talking about bombing Syria for gassing 1500 people. No American lives were lost and we were not threatened. If China wanted to gas some people, we wouldn’t budge a whisker. The real question to ask here, is why we would mobilize the full resources of the United States to strike someone who can’t bother us if we leave them well alone. Their ties to other countries could envelope us in war on a larger scale. PBS news reported today that Russia supplied Syria the chemical weapons. That should be enough reason to back off.
We have problems in the US that make Syria look like small potatoes. The city of Detroit has been destroyed and no bombs were dropped. Our infrastructure is falling apart, our educational system is pathetic, and more young people are killed each year in Chicago than were gassed in Syria. Nobody called an emergency session of Congress to fix any of that.
The odd issue with Syria is the adrenalin rush of each reporter and Congressman interviewed on the issue. The seriousness and the importance is stressed ad nausea; its all about votes and selling newspapers. Our journalists are selling us down a river of no return with the war on Syria because its good copy. We are going to try to kick some butt. We are going to pick on the smallest kid on the block (that makes us the bully on the block to the Arab world). My question, "Why take any action?"
No boots on the ground, but how do you get control of Weapons of Mass Destruction that have been produced? Do you ask Al-Qaeda to load them on a truck and drive them to the nearest United Nations station? The level of responsibility lies with the provider of the weapons, not the end user.
The Obama administration is using Syria as a magician’s ruse of miss direction. Focus your attention on Syria forget the real economic mess at home. The national debt, quantitative easing, inflation, unemployment and Obamacare are all coming to a head. We need to get our country moving economically and that is not happening. How does foreign policy fix the guy without a job? The part time high school jobs at McDucks are all gone. And guess what, the people that got those jobs, complain that they can't live on those wages. The high school kids probably wish that the "Whining Hamburger Flippers" would FOAD so they can earn enough to buy a new I-Phone for their senior year.
This mess in Syria could get out of hand very easily. It takes a great man to back off and only a fool to kick off a war. The news services are all aglee at selling us down a river of no return with the war on Syria--readership will triple. Here is a famous quote from Herman Goering one of Adolf Hitler’s minions from Nazi Germany.
I'm not sure how this will turn out, but I think a few Congressmen may read this blog. Lets get our nation working in good form before we try to fix the rest of the world. Our problems come first, the rest of the world can wait.
The Obama administration is using Syria as a magician’s ruse of miss direction. Focus your attention on Syria forget the real economic mess at home. The national debt, quantitative easing, inflation, unemployment and Obamacare are all coming to a head. We need to get our country moving economically and that is not happening. How does foreign policy fix the guy without a job? The part time high school jobs at McDucks are all gone. And guess what, the people that got those jobs, complain that they can't live on those wages. The high school kids probably wish that the "Whining Hamburger Flippers" would FOAD so they can earn enough to buy a new I-Phone for their senior year.
This mess in Syria could get out of hand very easily. It takes a great man to back off and only a fool to kick off a war. The news services are all aglee at selling us down a river of no return with the war on Syria--readership will triple. Here is a famous quote from Herman Goering one of Adolf Hitler’s minions from Nazi Germany.
Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter, in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ... [V]oice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.
I'm not sure how this will turn out, but I think a few Congressmen may read this blog. Lets get our nation working in good form before we try to fix the rest of the world. Our problems come first, the rest of the world can wait.
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