Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Things that go Bump in the Night

These are things that can keep you awake at night.

Ever heard of a big mutual fund going bankrupt? Even if you haven't, do you know the name of the one you own?

What happens when the baby boomers retire and ask for their money, is it there? It doesn't have to be there. They haven't asked for it (yet)! Your fund manager could be on his second tour around the world on his (yours technically) private yacht.

Ever heard of a retirement fund insured by the FDIC? Does it matter? They don't insure investment losses anyway.

After 34 pretty good years, isn't the stock market due for a 5 to 10 year downward slide?

Why would the big boys be buying 30 year bonds for less that the 5 year bonds--how much lower can interest rates go before you say, spend it, inflation will eat it up?

How can a hurricane triple insurance rates in Florida, but yet the threat of a housing collapse has inverted the interest yield curve?

An ad on the radio today advertises 5.9% fixed for 30 years 1.2 million limit, no income verification. Is this your retirement income in action?

How can Fannie Mae package a ton of junk and have no problem selling it? Nobody mentioned that "Risk had left the market."

There is a shoe ready to DROP, not sure what it will be, but it WILL go BUMP in the night.


bubble_watcher said...

I think the answer to most of these questions is something called 'complacency'..

And complacency along with the hope that 'things will eventually turn around' is the perfect recipe for a Depression at this point in time.

bubble_watcher said...

And speaking of things that go bump in the night..

Maybe now is the time to consider buying some shares of funds that short the stock market.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Shorting is not for the weak at heart. Using a fund is like off shore gambling- will they pay if you're right? Most options expire worthless. There is a great incentive of the fund to do nothing with your money, except enjoy themselves.

Mid September thru October is a real good time to play shorting the market. I really can't recommend any options, I don't want the price of what I am buying to double. October 1987 was a very good month for me.

Good luck

bubble_watcher said...

That's a very good point. It is also important to use smaller amounts of money (i.e. money that you can afford to lose) and to not 'bet the farm/house'.

chris mcdonalds said...

so i've been thinking lately what effect would all those blogs (incl. this one, of course) and internet as a whole will have in the next few years - with respect to "The Great Depression"... ironically, during the net stock boom and bust of 2000, blogs didn't exist in the magnitude of today...

would it exasperate the downturn or smooth it out a little???

very curious...

bubble_watcher said...

I think the answer is very little since most people don't read the blogs or accept the 'messages' (thoughts and ideas) that are conveyed.

Jim in San Marcos said...

I admit that the readership of blogs is not that great, and the more popular the blog, the more junk postings you have to sift through.

But basically the Internet has cut my library search time from 20 hours per week (1985) down to 20 minutes, and I don't even have to go to the library.

Looking at history, and the ability to communicate 1929 seems like the stone age. Fast forward to today, and I think that you have information so fast that it can really make things worse than 1929.

Earlier in my blog, I reported on a couple that wanted to commit suicide on a boat in India. Everyone rushed to one side to witness the event, and the boat rolled and killed everyone.

IMHO if there are enough people with the same information say a disaster stock meltdown scenario, they will all react the same, and make the situation 10 times worse than 1989.

I hope I'm wrong.