The Art of Compromise

I get a little fed up when I hear the President say no compromise on the budget. They are going to wait for the Republicans to cave in and agree to what they have offered. Rumors abound that, the Speaker of the House, John Boehner said that he would never let the Congress go so far as default on the national debt. Then you hear the Democrats state like a litany; "This will hurt the Republicans real bad when it comes election time."

Think about it for a minute. Any horse trader has enough smarts not to divulge his settlement terms. So if Obama thinks that Boehner is going to blink, he’s miscalculated. Another thing why would the Republicans lose votes? Voters, who want to give money out to every bleeding heart cause, don’t typically vote Republican.

We’ve had about 4 days of this mess so far, and if you listen to the Democrats, this is just horrible for the country. It’s as if we have been suffering through this for months when they describe the fallout. You’d think that half of the kids on the free lunch program have starved to death by missing 4 meals. A lot of government employees have been furloughed, but when things get back to normal, these people will get paid for the days they didn’t work --can you beat that?

Then if Congress lets this go on for two more weeks, we hit the debt ceiling. At that point it is no longer Democrat against Republican, it becomes a discussion on how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin. The concept borders on folly, but everyone is playing the game; “If we don’t write another IOU, the full faith and credit of the USA will be ruined.” How many free hamburgers does Wimpy get to eat with a promise to pay at a later date? This is what kicking the can down the road is all about, avoid the reality of spending beyond our means.

Is there a deal to be made where both parties can show that they got something in the bargain? Most probably. But if there is no compromise, both sides end up with nothing. In this case, both sides loose the ability to buy something with nothing while getting thanked by their constituents for doing it.

One thought to consider; the people with a solution for every problem, are usually a major part of the problem. Here’s hoping they can get together and come to a compromise.

Below is a picture that seems fairly straight forward until you realize that when you borrow money, they charge you interest. You could say from here, it gets real interest-ing. Kicking that can down the road is looking better every passing day. That doesn't say much for facing up to reality.

New Retirement Concepts of Taxation

I figured when I retired, I’d have my home paid off, 300k in the bank and $1,200 in Social Security in monthly income.  Part of my retirement was going to be from my nest egg of 300K.  I had figured that I should be able to get about 8 to 10 percent on my invested savings; figure about $2,000 to $3,000 per month.  I accomplished my goals, but that 300K in the bank now only generates about $400 per month.  So basically, I’m not retiring.  I like my present standard of living and I still have my health.

The government has two ways of taxing; the obvious one, earnings and the not so obvious, savings. There are two basic categories of voters; those with savings and those with none.  If you have nothing, you are only taxed when you earn a paycheck or buy something taxable.  These people have support life-lines like Social Security, food stamps, health care and supplemental SSI---any wonder why they vote Democrat?

Inflation is a despicable invisible tax on savings.  Every "debt ceiling" dollar printed today over time, will make your hard earned savings put away today, worth a lot less in the future.  Notice that if the government wants to borrow money, they have to borrow from people who have money.  That sounds obviously simple, but it escapes most people; if you have nothing, they can’t borrow from you.  Now there is also a third method of taxation that involves controlling the interest rates on bonds.  Bond rates are normally a function of risk.  The more risk, the higher the rate.  But if the government comes in and takes the risk out of the market by guaranteeing the loans and printing as many dollars as necessary to do it, they can keep interest rates extremely low. And no, they are not giving the banksters free money, they are just making good on the bad loans made to Joe Six-pack.  In essence Joe Six-pack borrowed your money in the bank and spent it on a house and now can’t pay it back. All the government did was pay off his non-performing loan and keep the bank from collapsing due to gross incompetence and mismanagement.

By controlling the interest rates in this new fashion, many silver foxes can’t retire because of the lack of generated interest income.  Instead of 30K interest on their nest egg of 300K, they get 5K.  Any way you look at it, the retiree is losing 25K a year.  I think this is why the investment in housing rentals has skyrocketed.  300K invested in the housing market should return more than 5K a year and 24K wouldn’t seem unreasonable.  The only trouble I see with this, the home is not easily convertible to cash if circumstances of old age dictate it (waiting for the market to come back might not be an option).  Notice however, if you give the house to your kids in a trust with the rent payable to you for life, future rest home expenses couldn’t claw back on the principle invested in the home that was given to the kids.

This present administration's new approach to economics and finance, has one problem, the economy is not reacting as anticipated.  Retirees have a lot less money to spend and students have a lot more (As long as they’re students).  There are few high paying jobs, the kids are moving back home and rentals go unrented. New cars are selling at a good clip, nothing down and you pay the sales tax of 10% before you drive out. Try and sell a used car; find someone with $2000 in the bank to purchase one.  People are trading in their old cars because they can’t afford to get them repaired.  Do the math, $1,800 for a new transmission or $800 “drive out” for a new car? Rumor has it you can get a free cell phone when you sign up for food stamps. In the 1930's they didn't have food stamps, they had soup kitchens--but I digress.

So, to tie up the loose ends, what happens next?  The government has taken away my independence by robbing me of the interest I anticipated in retirement.  Of course they will blame it on “Wall Street and the Banksters” who are just as abstract as the name “Uncle Sam”—these imaginary individuals offer us a focal point for our anger and are not people you can grab by the neck and choke some sense into.  In the coming weeks Congress has to face the budget bill, the national debt ceiling and a President with a super-sized ego that refuses any compromise. The President wants to tax the rich; you know, the people like you and me, who saved $100 a month for 40 years.  The neat thing if the government comes to a stop, they can’t spend any more of what they don’t have. And that sounds very weird. Plus, if you think about it, whatever they were spending, really wasn't theirs to spend anyways.

Obama kind of reminds me of the guy rowing a boat as fast as he can. Someone asked him where he was going and he said “I’m not sure, but we are making very good time!”

Will We Stop 1929 From Repeating

Here is a reprint of mine from a few years back, that is still relevant.


The Great Depression was a financial event. There was no war, earthquake or hurricane. The financial system ruptured and just about died. People stood in line to withdraw their saving from the banks. Thousands of banks collapsed. People, worldwide, lost their life savings. It was contended that the runs on the banks are what brought the system down. Upon closer examination, it’s easy to extrapolate the banks eventual demise from the poor economic conditions. The money borrowed could not be paid back by the unemployed. Many people were forced to live off of their savings (if they had any left).

In order to stem bank runs, the government came up with FDIC insurance. The Glass Segal act put this into effect January 1, 1934. This was after the horses escaped and the barn door was locked. If your bank met muster, you qualified for insurance and if it didn’t, you were toast. It didn’t cost the government a dime.

Let’s bracket that date January 1, 1934; either 100% of the population had collectively lost 80 percent of their wealth, or 80 percent of the population lost everything and 20 percent lost nothing. Almost everyone fell somewhere in-between the two categories. There was an obvious destruction of savings that was catastrophic in nature. This money wasn’t destroyed; it had been spent very foolishly over the previous 10 years on consumption. If you paid one million dollars for a dog or a wedding, you got your money’s worth, although I would argue that.

Fast forward to today. Bank deposits worldwide are insured. No one has lost a dime. The last part of the Kondratieff wave has to do with the contraction of the money supply and the repudiation of debt. The US Treasury is expanding the money supply while debtors have no problem walking away from their obligations. The most important thing to realize about the last part Kondratieff cycle is the end result. It destroys the obscenely rich and returns financial systems to a more normal functioning state. Bernanke is trying to preserve the status quo. The Fed is going to print us into prosperity.

Food prices have double this year. It is a little hard to see in some cases, the giant size potato chips bags, now fit in a lunch box. And then there is the specter of deflation. Autos and homes are just not selling.

Even if you have a job, your wages are not increasing, but your cost of living is increasing. So you dip into your savings, which seem to have lost a lot of buying power. Maybe that’s what deflation is all about, you spend until you are broke and then do without.  We can now drive to the poor house in style. It kind of sets your mind at ease, doesn't it?

An Inept President Trying Cover Up The Mess At Home

Turning on the news, everyone is talking about bombing Syria for gassing 1500 people.  No American lives were lost and we were not threatened.  If China wanted to gas some people, we wouldn’t budge a whisker.  The real question to ask here, is why we would mobilize the full resources of the United States to strike someone who can’t bother us if we leave them well alone. Their ties to other countries could envelope us in war on a larger scale. PBS news reported today that Russia supplied Syria the chemical weapons.  That should be enough reason to back off.

We have problems in the US that make Syria look like small potatoes.  The city of Detroit has been destroyed and no bombs were dropped.  Our infrastructure is falling apart, our educational system is pathetic, and more young people are killed each year in Chicago than were gassed in Syria.  Nobody called an emergency session of Congress to fix any of that.

The odd issue with Syria is the adrenalin rush of each reporter and Congressman interviewed on the issue.  The seriousness and the importance is stressed ad nausea; its all about votes and selling newspapers.    Our journalists are selling us down a river of no return with the war on Syria because its good copy.  We are going to try to kick some butt. We are going to pick on the smallest kid on the block (that makes us the bully on the block to the Arab world). My question, "Why take any action?"

No boots on the ground, but how do you get control of Weapons of Mass Destruction that have been produced?   Do you ask Al-Qaeda  to load them on a truck and drive them to the nearest United Nations station?  The level of responsibility lies with the provider of the weapons, not the end user.

The Obama administration is using Syria as a magician’s ruse of miss direction.  Focus your attention on Syria forget the real  economic mess at home.  The national debt, quantitative easing, inflation, unemployment and Obamacare are all coming to a head.     We need to get our country moving economically and that is not happening.  How does foreign policy fix the guy without a job?  The part time high school jobs at McDucks are all gone. And guess what, the people that got those jobs, complain that they can't live on those wages.  The high school kids probably wish that the "Whining Hamburger Flippers" would FOAD so they can earn enough to buy a new I-Phone for their senior year.


This mess in Syria could get out of hand very easily.  It takes a great man to back off and only a fool to kick off a war.   The news services are  all aglee  at selling us down a river of no return with the war on Syria--readership will triple. Here is a famous quote from Herman Goering one of Adolf Hitler’s minions from Nazi Germany.

Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter, in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ... [V]oice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.

I'm not sure how this will turn out, but I think a few Congressmen may read this blog. Lets get our nation working in good form before we try to fix the rest of the world.  Our problems come first, the rest of the world can wait.

How to Start a World War

Syria seems like a cake walk after Iraq and Afghanistan.  But there are a few things different here. Iran and Russia are backing Syria.  Go ahead and fire a few missiles into Syria.  It’s a little like your neighbor beating his wife and you decide to empty your handgun into his home to get him to stop. It isn't going to end there, now is it?

Since there is a little bit of a time delay before the strike, Iran and Russia have the time to move a few armaments to Syria for its defense.  It’s a little like Spain before WWII.  Everyone got to test their new weapons. Iran feels threatened because of the US’s position on nuclear weapons as well as Israel’s threat of a first strike.

We’ve meddled in Iraq, Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan and all we have done is taken a stable government which  never even had a hope of being a Democracy, and destroyed the institutions that could keep order.  Afghanistan will be like Viet Nam.  200,000 immigrants will be moved to the US. Otherwise they will be executed when we leave.

If Obama launches a missile attack, I fully expect a reprisal attack on our vessels in the Mediterranean.  And I would expect that the launches would be from Syrian soil, but not necessarily by the Syrians.    The question you have to ask, do our naval ships carry gas masks?

The people in the Arab world are very poor.  They want a reason for why they live in poverty.  The answer is, the Great Satan is extracting from their labor the wealth that would have been theirs.  Any military  success by Syria against US vessels, could rally the Arabs and make shambles of  governments in the region.

 What we need to realize here, is that we are at a point to where we could start WWIII.  And without using any gas, 4 billion people could starve to death in a nuclear winter, because some US President had a red line that was not to be crossed.  Give me a break. War is about killing people.  If you're not any good at it, you lose.

Restaurant Menu Prices 1938

I was searching through some picture albums of my parents from way back and ran into some restaurant menus  from the depression era of late 1930's.. The first 3 pictures are from the Manhattan  Restaurant

 

The Second menu (three pictures) is on the Union Pacific Railroad from 1937 somewhere in Wyoming.

This last menu is from the Hotel Windermere in Chicago 1937.

Double click on the images to see what the prices were back then.   Did you notice that the Manhattan offered a broiled (Whole) lobster for 65 cents?  In today's world, you'd be lucky to get half a lobster for $30.  Bear in mind, the people that read these menus in real time are probably dead by now.

The pay raise that everyone gets each year because of inflation is just an allusion. Look around, the new hires are starting out a few pennies less than what the seasoned workers are making.  The neat thing about inflation is that Congress doesn't have to raise the tax rates, you earn more, you pay more.  That's the real difference between the Democrats and Republicans; print as you go verses pay as you go.

The real odd thing is that the average person does not connect the dots. The relationship between government spending and inflation does not exist. Rumor has it, we've always had inflation-- I guess we're supposed to get used to it.  My wife bought a new battery and asked me to guess how much she paid for it, and I said $40.  Her answer; "That's the price you would have paid 20 years ago, the battery was $100."

Let's see, I'll have the broiled lobster with coffee and a slice of cake--that's about 85 cents total, plus 15 cents for a tip.  The trouble is, 76 years of inflation have raised the prices a tad.

 

MY Way Or The Highway

Newspapers around the world report how Russia granted Snowden political asylum for a year snubbing President Obama.  That’s really not the case.  In order for Snowden to get to his destination in South America, he pretty much has to ride on an airline.  The airline will have  to make one stop for fuel in Europe on the long haul to his destination.  Obama probably directed FBI or CIA to detain and search aircraft leaving Moscow and capture Snowden.  If you know he’s going to be traveling in a few days, it’s no real effort to search about 5 or 6 aircraft a day.  The US in a foreign country  no less, stopped a flight bound to Cuba just to check to see if  Snowden was on board.  Obama got too demanding with Putin.  Snowden has to leave Russia so that the United States could capture him when the plane lands to refuel.  What a joke! All Putin did by granting him temporary asylum, was give Snowden a better chance at making it to his destination. The kid hasn’t violated any Russian laws, why should Russia be responsible for his return? It was the Chinese that dumped him on their doorstep.

Then we hear something I could not believe. Obama said; "Nobody is more offended than me by some of the anti-gay and lesbian legislation that you've been seeing in Russia," he added. "One of the things I'm really looking forward to is maybe some gay and lesbian athletes in bringing home the gold, or silver, or bronze, which I think would go a long way in rejecting the kind of attitudes we're seeing there." 

As far as governments go, Russia can do whatever they deem correct, gay people don’t reproduce and spreading HIV isn’t a good thing unless you have Obamacare. Why should the government support a way of life that produces no offspring to benefit the future of the state?  And at the same time their sexual actions endanger the regular population and deplete health care resources.  What is the US -- the land of the free or the land of the Gay?  Look for Obama’s new promotional souvenirs  for the Moscow Olympics, jars of Vaseline with a picture of your favorite gay American gold medal winner on the back—ought to be a real collector’s item.

Then there is Obamacare.  Whatever gave the President the idea that once he snuck his health care thru Congress, that from then on, it would be business as usual?  This guy might know how to play checkers, but this is a chess game.  Congress is now like a wasp nest that he stuck a stick in. Wait till the masses figure out they have money for health care or car insurance, but not both and they don’t get to choose which one they pay. 

To add wood to the fire, he stated the other day;  “the idea that you would shut down the government unless you prevent 30 million people from getting healthcare is a bad idea." And that "Republicans have determined that they don't want to see these people get healthcare."

 It implies, we as a nation don’t have the real money to spend on it and raising the National Debt will solve the problem. It’s similar to the car insurance and health care choice for the poor, only with the government, they get to have both even though they can only afford one. 

 In the Middle East, the Arab Spring, the promise of Democracy promoted by the US is a miserable failure. It has turned stable governments into war zones. Anyone care to vacation in Libya or Egypt?  How do you give Democracy to people that have to steal just to survive?  Idealism doesn’t put food on the table, pimping your sister or killing your neighbor’s dog does. I remember trying to give Viet Nam Democracy, looks like our government didn't learn much from that lesson.

Then there is the idea of amnesty for 10 million illegal immigrants (30 million might be a more correct figure).  Do we really need 30 million more registered Democrats in the country?  When the country was founded, the voters had skin in the game, they were land owners.  I’d like to see the right to vote determined by the amount of taxes paid.  The more you pay in taxes, the more votes you get.  Let the people who pay the taxes determine how the taxes are spent.  Funny, that doesn’t seem to support our present day concepts of how Democracy should work, but it seems very logical just for its long term survival (Alexis Tocqueville's book written in 1835 "Democracy in America" comes to mind) 

The only thing I see with the Obama Presidency is a man whose actions declare “My way or the highway.”  You are either with him, or in his way.  If you listen to his rhetoric, he’s going to solve world hunger give us universal health care and give the world Democracy.  We all have dreams; reality is when it comes time to pay the bill.  Obama has triumphed over everything, except for those “Damn Republicans.”  And it looks like he’s about to get his comeuppance, it’s  time to pay the bills.

 Shades of paranoia, I’m getting ready to hit the publish button and I can visualize in my mind, a drone locking onto the meta-data in my cell phone—nah, that’s still a few years away—I hope.

The Student Loan Bubble

Students are offered college tuition loans guaranteed by the Federal government. Some students have anywhere from 150k to 300K in loans.  If the student pays it off in 10 years, that’s about $1,820 to $3,640 a month for 10 years.  When they graduate, they will need an 80 to 100K beginning wage job. If they can’t find one, there will be 12 to 24k of interest accrual each year that payments aren’t made. This interest turns into principle when added to the loan, so a 150k amortized over 7 years at 8 percent with no payments made turns into $257,000.  And if we calculate the same for 300K, you get a new loan amount of $514,000.  If you are unable to find a job, just the monthly maintenance to keep the loan amount from increasing is $960 a month on the 150K loan—double that for the $300K loan.

Now picture how the economics work for an institution of higher learning.  They need students that can afford a 2 to 4 year degree.  They are not promising jobs, they are promising an education to get you a better job (this is the most important sentence, and nobody really comprehends it-- a college degree does not mean more pay, it implies it).  With a lot of two year schools, the education received wouldn’t buy a cup of coffee, but the dollars the student spent are real.  The school needs students, and a lot of ”would be students” don’t have the dollars to attend.  Here is where the school will offer services, free of charge, to help you finance your education with them.

Don’t be surprised to read about the divorced mother of two who signs up for the 2 year dental technician course for $12,000,  graduates only to find out she can’t get a job with her new training. She still has the 2 kids and now in addition, 12K in school debts.  If she’s flipping hamburgers, her hours will probably be cut because of Obamacare, and her wages will be garnished to pay off the student loan. FYI,  that trade school is still turning out dental technicians by the 100's ---financing is in place for your future degree.

Our youth has been told  that  a college education guarantees a better paying job.  Students with large student loans will have to look at the bottom line before they accept a job—it might not pay all the bills.  There is always the chance your girlfriend will have just as much debt as you do. 20 years ago, the consensus was  a person with a college degree would earn a half million more than the guy without one  (I sure hope that amount has increased somewhat).

The choice for a graduating senior in High School is obvious; flip hamburgers, or get that college loan and go to college. The real irony, is that you get the loan, and the education, and then you learn how to flip hamburgers for the rest of your life.  Not every college degree is in demand. Plus you might not want to work in Butte Montana or in Detroit Michigan.

The student debt bubble could be deflated if Congress would allow students to file for bankruptcy on the ridiculous amounts loaned to them.  It’s a noble gesture to offer everyone the money to pursue a college education. It’s insanity to think that most will have the opportunity let alone the desire to pay it back.   The underwriters of these loans are turning our kids into indentured servants. If you can’t afford something you do without---what if the government offered guaranteed loans on lottery ticket purchases?  I'd love to have sold the guy that thought up the student loan program a toll bridge or two.

We saw how free money caused a real estate bubble.  When that bubble collapsed, bankruptcy was a way out of a bad mistake.  Right now, the student loan bubble is fueling the economy ---1 trillion dollars’ worth of consumption so far and Congress is still pumping air into it. Can we count on these college grads to be consumers when they graduate?  Will they be too busy paying back their loans or fighting to keep their wages from being  garnished?  

Everyone at the age of 20 has dreams of success and wealth. The rest of the world will play on those dreams, they are a vulnerability. Two kids a wife and a house payment are a reality,  and there isn’t much room for a large student loan.  The more bills you have, the less you sleep at night. A college education could become your worst nightmare.  We can be very sincere when we say;  “The road to hell is paved with good intensions.”   Another 10 years of these super fantastic student loans, and one will  need a Master's Degree to get a job cleaning toilets or a PhD to flip hamburgers.

As a post script, you can always move to Australia and forget about the debt. Being broke and having a new start will work miracles on your state of mind and you'll sleep a lot better. Now might be the time to invest in surfing posters about Australia and New Zealand for the dorm room.  However, it wouldn't surprise me to see them distributed free of charge, with a visa application for the Down Under, printed on the back side. No "go figure" on this one, we saw it coming and did nothing.

Fine Line Between "Administrative" and Congressional Law.

Congress passes our laws and most people think that whatever the government directs them to do is the because of   laws directly passed by Congress.  That’s not quite right. Congress creates an executive Agency and that department writes rules or codes which when issued become what are called CFR’s (code of federal regulations) or administrative laws.

For example, Congress created the Department of Agriculture.   The Department of Agriculture is part of the administrative branch of government; it is under control of the President.  So when Congress passed the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010. It directed the USDA to establish nutrition standards for all foods and beverages sold to students in school during the school day.  They did that, no big deal.  I’m sure several food nutritionists got together and put together a school lunch menu and considered it a done thing. At that point, whatever they wrote became an administrative law. Then Obama’s wife came out with the ideal school lunch menu that included whole wheat and other items that you couldn’t even get a kid to eat at home.  One phone call, and guess what your kids get for lunch now? --and it’s the law.

Then there is the Treasury Department, more specifically, the IRS, another department controlled by the executive.  “Kill all Tea Party applications” isn’t written anywhere in the laws, but hey, the applications are not going anywhere soon. Did they violate any law, probably not, they get to write the laws they need, to function as directed by Congress.  Our representatives gave them the power to create administrative laws that many people believe border on being extremely arbitrary and harsh.

We are surrendering more of our freedom with each government agency created. A government agency can create a directive that will have the full force of law until it is challenged by a court of law. Recently the Mayor of NY City, had the Board of Health approve a regulation limiting soda sizes. That was an “Administrative Law.”  The court overturned it stating that the mayor’s ban on sugary sodas of more than 16 ounces was a violation of executive powers.

I’m not so upset about the delegation of authority to a Federal agency, but some of these departments have run amok.  Just getting your kids to eat the food served at home is a real challenge. Why screw it up with whole wheat? School lunch sales are down quite a bit for kids not on the subsidized lunch program. It’s McDucks if you have cash or the school cafeteria for the free lunch. When I was a kid, the school would send a proposed food menu home for the parent’s approval.  The current message I get; the American public is too stupid for their own good and some government created Agency like the Food and Drug Administration will save us from ourselves.

I use to love McDonalds French fries made with real animal fat, they were delicious.  Some pencil pusher in the FDA wrote a directive that ruined French fries forever. Even our fast food is now “Politically Correct.”

Here is a real test, make a peanut butter and jelly sandwich using whole wheat bread.   Woof it down. Do you think you’ll ever want another one of those? If you say yes, that’s probably a good indication that you need to cut down on the amount of weed you’re smoking. Gimmie my white bread and greasy (animal fat) French fries, freedom tastes better without government regulations. Our fast food is now terrorist friendly—no pork fat—Go figure!  I guess we want them to live longer also.

The Coming Pension Disaster

Detroit bites the dust and the one question that no one will bring up, is; “Where is the money coming from to pay the city’s promised retirement benefits?” 10 cents on the dollar won't cut it. This bankruptcy is the biggest so far; $20 billion give or take 4 billion. About 12 billion is for retirement benefits. The city looks like a bombed out war zone. The real estate tax base is gone. Many other cities nationwide are in similar financial peril and on the verge of insolvency.

Here is what happened in Prichard Alabama in 2009 with their bankruptcy. The retirement checks stopped when the money ran out. Click on this LINK for the full story. Note that the court demanded that they start contributing 16 million to the retirement fund and they had no money to do so. Where the judge thought they would pull the money from, is beyond me.

Several issues are at play here. How do you sue a city that is broke and collect real money rather than a judgment? The state is not obligated to pay city debts. And you can’t sue the state anyway. What happens to the people who were collecting retirement and health care benefits? The Stockton bankruptcy from a year ago is still in limbo this year. California law, states that the city’s retirement funds are exempt from the Federal bankruptcy court proceedings. Notice that CalPERS has a vested interest in this ruling, they’re holding a sizable portion of city's retirement funds. The Federal bankruptcy court wants all of the city's assets on the table. Can State laws rewrite the Federal Bankruptcy Code? Federal law should override State law. It could be a moot point by the time it gets out of the courts; we’ll all be dead by then.

The Pension Benefits Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) was created by Congress as a backup retiree plan for failed private pension plans. Unfortunately for the city of Detroit, the key word is "private," "public" won't qualify. This little unknown government entity is already on the hook for 26 billion dollars more than they have in collected premiums. The listing below displays the present top 10 of failed pension plans now on government life support.

After the American Airlines bankruptcy goes final, there could be another 10 billion added to the PBGC's unfunded obligations. And of course General Motors pension liabilities could add another 25 billion to that total. Employee retirement benefits were really what GM’s initial bankruptcy was all about—and that 25 billion hasn’t gone anywhere, it’s still there (sshh--that’s a secret).

Basically what we are coming down to is hundreds of retirement funds are underfunded by large amounts. Many of these plans were doomed to failure. Cities choose to grant increased retirement benefits instead of wage increases. It looked great on the books and didn’t show up in the city budget like a wage increase would. And this is coming back to haunt them. The laws are in place to protect the retiree. “By God, they have to give me my pension, I earned it!” The only trouble is, passing a law guaranteeing benefits, in no way creates the funds for the check to be written. No money in the city coffers makes any court award meaningless.

Surfing Google for answers, I ran across a plethora of government abstracts dealing with the PBGC. I don’t pretend to have understood half the government double talk, but it is obvious from all of the interaction, the Congress and the Department of Labor are well aware of what is going on. This is a high traffic issue with little mention in the press.

In the future, it could be very upsetting to be a retired GM employee and find out that they were now covered by PBGC. They’d think; “Well I still have my Social Security to add to my GM retirement” ---- In all likelihood, the PBGC might deduct their Social Security benefits from their proposed GM pension benefits. Government programs promise you more, by giving you less.

The interesting thing to note about the future failure of government retirement plans, there is no news coverage. They haven’t happened, so there is nothing to report. Where will the money come from, to pay these debts off? Will the Pension Benefit Guarantee Fund be expanded to include government retirees? The Fanny and Freddie bailout fiasco comes to mind. I guess what’s good for GM, is good for America. I seem to have heard that before -- somewhere.

Let the bankruptcy festival begin. Government employees were promised “Surf and Turf,” and it looks like they’ll be lucky to settle for chipped beef and gravy on toast-- better known as “SOS” in military circles. I was dumbfounded to learn that a fireman I indirectly know,  is retiring at age 50 on 100K a year. Reality is right around the corner here –somewhere—  The joke when I went to high school was, If you can't find a real job you can always work for  the government. That has changed quite a bit in the last 40 years. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out in the courts, the winner could end up being the biggest loser.