Wednesday, September 17, 2014

The Dumbing Down of America

The average US citizen is a vegetable that reclines on a couch. Overweight, hates his or her job and wants to make more money to buy more toys. Nobody saves for retirement until they approach 55. Then they put their retirement fund in a 401k or IRA and the salesman shows them a pyramid diagram and asks them where they want to invest their funds—down at the bottom where it’s safe or up at the top in the winner’s circle?

Did you know that solar panels are a “no-brainer?” Just ask Ed Asner. That means you don’t have to think to make money. Then there are the hybrid cars that you need to own 10 years to break even on, the only trouble is most people get a new car every 4 years because the one they’ve got, is falling apart. Plus after 10 years the car is worthless unless you replace the battery.

Obama’s wife started a healthy school lunch program to keep kids from getting fat. All it has done is reduce the number of American kids eating the lunches. Fat kids know what tastes good, they enjoy deep fried food and pizza. If you’re from Central America, any lunch is better than no lunch. The neat thing about the new kids in the school is that the school district gets $8,000 for each one, to educate them. And this is government money, it’s not like it is taxes that we paid. I’m not quite sure where that sort of logic leads to, but I wouldn’t wait for the music to stop, to sit in a chair—their playing with half a deck.

Then we tell our kids they have to go to college to get a better job. It’s true for some professions, but how many rocket scientists and brain surgeons do we need? As long as we have rich people, we will never have enough lawyers, go figure. As the student loan approaches 200k it becomes a form of slavery, from which there is no relief. Lincoln freed the slaves and by God Obama will get them back. This time it won’t be an issue of skin color, but rather one of naively trusting a government program to do what it promised. Name me one government program that has—I go ballistic with the mention of the ethanol gas program.

The new minimum wage will give everyone a boost in wages. So everyone up the ladder gets a pay raise. It’s a little like putting a magnifying glass in front of the carrot on a stick. You’ll never enlighten these workers about inflation and its causes; they’re more into cars, women, football and basketball. Notice as you earn more, you have to pay more in taxes, and 50 percent of the population pays no Federal income tax now so that should drop a tad, to say 48 percent with the pay raise.

When people discuss presidential administrations in relation to their successes and failures, they often forget to realize that it takes about 4 years before there is a cause related effect. The president on watch gets credit or blame for what was set in motion 4 to 10 years earlier. Clinton is cited for balanced budgets, guess what? Congress was Republican, both houses then. The president may be the head honcho, but he is not the one issuing the laws and writing the checks. This argument would glaze over the eyes of most minimum wage earners; the knowledge puts no money in their pocket.

Our government’s 17 trillion dollar debt is so large that it escapes comprehension. This method of accounting will work until it doesn’t. The warm and fuzzy feeling is gone, financial security is what we desire. But look at it from the government’s point of view, everyone is setting there watching and hoping that nothing overturns the apple-cart (notice how we have progressed from the analogy of the straw on a camel’s back). We are good for now, but now, is not forever.

Many cite this country as being the greatest in the world. It was at one time. You used to have to be a citizen to vote, now nobody cares, anyone can vote if they look old enough, and they can vote more than once if they feel like it. Our government hands out free money to anyone who can make it here (of course those aren’t my tax dollars that I paid to the Federal government). It still is the greatest country in the world, but it depends on whether you’re in, looking out; or out, looking in.

We need to understand that whatever our beliefs on the issues, it will not influence the final outcome. But one thing is very obvious. Things are promoted or sold to make money. SOMEONE ends up paying all of the bills. If government was smaller or had a smaller budget, we would have less of the stuff we really don't need. I guess that is just too simple of an idea to work. (Mr. SOMEONE lives down the street from me SOMEWHERE, God bless him for all the taxes he pays)


Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Surfing the Kondratieff Wave Reprinted from2006

Here is a reprint of my second post as a blogger way back in May of 2006. Click on the link in this article, you won't be disappointed. Little bit of writers block lately coupled with a heavy work load at my regular job. Hope to get back in form next week with something new.

If you're into investment cycles and charts, the Kondratieff Wave is one to examine. Basically the boom and bust cycle had a 60 year span. Here is a link to more detail http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm Credit the picture above from this link.

The cycle this time around is a little long in the tooth. There is a reason for this and I believe as do some others, that it has to do with the increase in the length of the average persons life span.It use to be about 60 years now we are up to about 75 years.

Each generation has a group of elders that can draw from past mistakes. We are at a point right now, that the follies of the 1920's and 1930's are not part of our "group memory" any more. Most people from that era would be at least 100 years old now. Now when you quote some historical aspect a cause of the last depression, you hear the phrase,"Its different this time."

People today think that the interest only no money down mortgage is something new. Well it isn't. They were written right up to the collapse in 1929. The banks soon realized that it was like the neighbor taking out your daughter for a "test drive" before he married her. The responsibility factor was missing.

Cycles are usually displayed as circles that would follow through phases and complete back where they started. I think that this is not a true analogy of what is happening here. If you start with a spiral going out from the center, this more correctly displays "history repeating itself." It s not quite the same, things have changed somewhat.

People are consuming more and more, and with that, comes the creation of more debt. It is this debt that will be marked to market. Mr. Kondratieff's theory suggests that all of this debt will disappear and the money supply will contract accordingly (drastically in this case).

I don't think that people fully realize how money disappears. Take Lucent Technologies a few years back. It sold for $80 per share and went down to $2. Somebody owned it the whole way down.

What really scares me today, is the people with savings and retirement funds, they have been funding this whole thing. The market will always go up (believe that and I'll tell you another). The trouble is, a majority of the owners of wealth, are going to want to get out of the market pretty soon and they are at the head of the line-- the baby boomer's.The baby boomer's think that this will be a relaxing walk into retirement. More likely its going to be one hell of a panic. If Mr Kondratieff is right, there will be a drastic contraction of the money supply because of the debt marked to market, and because of this, commodities should fall in price.

My question is this. If the world population has increased 4 times in the last 60 years and most of these governments have been printing money at a very vigorous rate, can gold and silver still be considered commodities? I think that they reside outside the realm of consumables.

As an addition to the original post, here is a little bit of video from You-Tube that everyone is carrying.

Monday, August 25, 2014

The Upside Down Logic of Today’s Economy

People used to buy homes because it was cheaper to own than to rent. Let’s face it, the ability to pick up and move at the drop of a hat, is real freedom. And just that alone should dictate that renters pay more for that freedom. That doesn’t seem to be the case. Selling a home in California can cost 20K, and that’s a year’s rent.

Common sense suggests that if you want people to save their money, you should pay them a reasonable interest rate so they would forgo immediate gratification. I can’t think of one reason if you are young, to put money in a bank at these interest rates. Buy something real and enjoy it.

If you are ready for retirement, even Suze Orman is suggesting that you hop into the stock market. The return on bonds is so low that you need to invest in stocks with some reasonable amount of return even if the risk is greater. Otherwise you will outlive your savings. And to think, that the eighth wonder of the world used to be “Compound Interest.” Right now the spread between Junk and Treasury’s is about 100 basis points and at times in the past, used to be as high as 800 to 1400 basis points (that's before the government insured everything).

It used to be that the minimum wage was an entry rate into the labor force. You couldn’t live on it as a career wage, but it gave you training and gave your employer a way to measure you for advancement. Now we have the realization by the masses that you can’t support a family on the minimum wage. Plus we have a new economic concept that raising the minimum wage will solve problems. Let me ask you one question, does a law solve a problem or set fines for violators? Just maybe pointing out that the minimum wage won’t support a family sells more newspapers. Everyone earning the minimum wage has a pretty good idea that family life will really suck on the minimum wage.

The infrastructure in most of the states is over 60 years old and needs to be replaced. “Infrastructure is a fancy name for; roads, sewer, water and electricity. On top of that, my state, California is in the middle of a drought. Add insult to injury, consuming less water by everyone will raise everyone’s water rates. A lot of the fixed costs used to be passed on to the large consumers. So in a down economy, consuming less costs more and we are not even talking inflation.

Inflation appears to have disappeared if we look at all of the government statistics. But if we examine the national debt, a jump of 10 trillion in the last 9 years, kind of makes one wonder. When I pointed out to someone some wastefully spending in our organization, the reply was, “Oh, that’s government money.” There appears to be a complete disconnect between the taxes we pay and government spending. So it’s not surprising to see that the average man on the street looks at the national debt as a government thing that has nothing to do with the people. Then carry it one step further; this form of government financing has worked great so far, why not continue it? Don’t rock the boat.

I remember as a kid offering up an excuse for bad behavior to my parents with “The other kids do it or their parents think its ok.” The response from my parents was wisdom for growing up into adulthood, “they might do it, but it doesn’t make it right. In this house you live up to our standards, not their lack of standards.” So when you open the morning paper and find out that all of the other countries are printing money at a very rapid rate just as we are; what you can deduce from the fracas, is that there are no “adults” in charge.

Common sense suggests that the economy is stressed to the limit. We are not sure, why or how but the facts don’t fit any model we use. Something is wrong, there is an economic conflict that has to be resolved. We cannot spend what we have not taxed, forever. There comes a point to where it has to fail. Of course we are not there yet, so as long as it works, it works.

It kind of reminds me of a roller coaster ride video from a blogger a few years ago about the Stock Market, we are now most certainly near a top and are ready for the real ride to begin. Or better yet, it's enjoying snow cones on the Titanic after the iceberg hit. Are we having fun yet? Do you get the idea that reality and common sense, are traits lacking from the players at our "roulette table" commonly referred to as the stock market? "Faites vos jeux."

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

War and Non Wars

I wrote this a week ago and published it for about 12 hours and then unpublished it. It didn't really conform to what this blog is about and that's why I pulled it. But it seems to have a of a lot of relevance when we watch the cruelty going on in the third world news.

This is a little off topic, but right now the world is in the midst of several armed conflicts and many are mislabeled “wars.” Wars are fought by two differing groups wearing uniforms to designate their affiliations and there are rules of engagement. If you remove your uniform and go behind enemy lines, you are then considered a spy and entitled to be immediately shot if discovered. In these types of conflicts, civilians are a protected group.

In a second type of conflict many times labeled “a war,” are religious conflicts. There are no uniforms to designate participants, in fact, most are masked. These barbarians think nothing of killing a man’s family, if they cannot get the man himself. What we need to realize is that these people are terrorists and do not even deserve the right to surrender and be captured. They claim to be innocent civilians when discovered.

We need to recognize what terrorism is, it is an attack on everyone, not just the military of a country. We have a war in Syria and at least half of the combatants wear uniforms; in Israel, the same thing. In both cases, only one side is held accountable, only because they follow the rules of war.

In the Ukraine, they have a civil war and the war is real, they’re not trying to kill civilians. It is soldier killing soldier. When it’s over, the winner’s rule and it has nothing to do with religion.

Most of the civil unrest in the world right now involves the Muslim religion. They are using terrorism to conquer those who block their path with mindless senseless trails of death and destruction, through terror and intimidation, with the hope to conquer, kill and convert what is left.

A pressure cooker blows up during the Boston Marathon and it sets a whole nation on edge. Our airlines could be on the verge of collapse with one or two future successful terrorist attacks.

As a suggestion, why not drop one or two nuclear bombs on ISIS to show them what we are using for a pressure cookers? We don’t need boots on the ground to vaporize someone who is a terrorist. This might give Iran second thoughts on producing a nuclear device. If they want to wear a uniform and play by the rules of war, then that would change the game plan. Right now our game plan doesn’t work because they don’t play according to the rules of war. They are playing to win and are succeeding, the threat to kill your wife and kids will make anyone toe the line.

A nuclear bomb would bring home to them the absolute horrors of real war, more so than a car bomb or a pressure cooker. The certainty of the lethal impact of a nuclear weapon makes a car bomb seem like an act of futility. If you get vaporized, you don’t get the 60 virgins. Of course I could be wrong on that, no one has come back to complain that they didn’t get their quota of virgins. And if we are talking sheep, I can see a realistic possibility of filling that quota of virgins.

We need to examine the rules of engagement for terrorists. Do we play by our rules, or do we give them a dose of what they are handing out to the rest of the world?

I'm sure that I will be more on topic next week.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Show Me a Company That Pays Taxes

The most idiotic statement I heard the other day was from President Obama stating that these "Business Inversions" going on, were a way for business to avoid paying U.S. taxes. Show me ANY company that pays government taxes. There are NONE! The tax is added on to the price of the product and THE CONSUMER PAYS THE TAX.

Basically a corporation makes widgets at a reasonable price, or goes out of business. There are all sorts of taxes the corporation has to collect and turn into the government. If the government decides it wants 26 percent of the company’s earnings and call it taxes, so be it; it is a cost of business and is factored into the price of the final product. So when you buy a new American car, built for 20K the selling price has a 26 percent markup just for the tax --- figure $25,200 with GM’s tax added in. Then figure profit for dealer and producer and the price hits $30,000 also envision all of the car parts from suppliers paying the same government tax. And add that on to what the car company has to pay to acquire parts to produce the vehicle. When done this way, the buyer has no clue to as to what goes into his 10 percent sales tax tacked on to his purchase price— he is paying tax on taxes already paid by the auto producer and his suppliers.

The President and Congress express the need for tax reform, and big business has figured out what that means, there won’t be any. Moving your mouth is not the same as rolling up your sleeves and picking up a shovel. This country wasn’t created because of religious freedom and voting rights, it was created over unjust taxation. People were tired of paying the King of England tribute taxes with no visible benefits. Obama thinks that it is our patriotic right to pay taxes. We fought a war to fix that 200 years ago and it looks like we are facing the same problem again.

All governments are incredibly stupid when it comes to taxes. The Great Depression of the 1930’s was greatly exacerbated by municipalities using the logic; “If we raise taxes, we will increase the amount collected.” People couldn’t pay the taxes and gave the city their keys to the property. The net effect, the tax revenues collected, dropped drastically. The politicians didn’t comprehend the cause and effect of what they had done, but that mattered little, they didn’t get reelected, so there was no lesson learned. The tax rate on the rich at one time was almost 90 percent and when the government dropped it down to 20 percent, there was no change or decrease in tax receipts, the rich now had more places to invest without being penalized. Changing the rate on the rich, in no way affected the amount collected. You can be stupid and poor forever, but you can’t be rich and stupid for very long.

The cost of running a business in the USA is chasing manufacturing off shore. Taxes are only one item; there is Obamacare, Social Security, unemployment insurance, workers comp and liability from ambulance chasing lawyers.

This country was settled by people voting with their feet. Corporations are now considered people, and they seem to be voting with their feet. Why do I get the feeling that the political logic doesn’t fit here? The real question that needs to be asked, is this: Why does government need more money to fix what isn’t broken, and at the same time, need less money to fix what is broken?

Common sense suggests that if it works in the USA, it will work a hell of a lot better in another country at half the price. Why does that seem like the wrong answer, but the right conclusion?

Monday, July 21, 2014

Socialism a Humorous Explanition




Below is a web link if it doesn't show up right.
Web link

Sunday, July 13, 2014

The New Housing Bubble in California

Housing prices in San Marcos are about back to pre-bubble prices. A house like we rent for $1750 a month is now going for 560K. That would be about $3,000 a month to own it plus another $5,600 in property taxes. So renting costs us about $21,000 a year while owning would cost us about $41,600 a year. Notice the cost difference. If you wanted to turn the property into a rental, it wouldn’t be worth the effort at these prices.

In the past, many people said, that paying rent was just throwing your money away. Owners rationalize when the home is paid off, "they get to live in it rent free." Actually, they forgo the interest of the dollar value of the home. A paid off 560K home would generate 17K at 3% interest. So if you take the 17K and add the property taxes, of $5,600, you get $20,500. Divide that by 12 and they are still paying $1700 rent a month. We are not even talking repairs here, I've got a $7,000 repair bill to rebuild one bathroom on my rental.

The real reason for home ownership in the past; it was cheaper to own than to rent. The renter paid extra for the freedom to pick up and move when they felt like it. With housing prices up 160K in two years, that thinking has changed a bit. The funny thing for this area is that the people that bought at the height of the last bubble are still underwater after 8 years. They need 34K in equity just to pay the realtors fees if they were to sell without a loss.

In a roundabout way, the Federal Reserve and your retirement funds are what keep the real estate prices artificially high. Beginning in October, the Feds will no longer be buying the real estate paper. The estimates of the dollar value of the paper owned by them is around 2.3 trillion dollars. No big deal on this, the home loans will be paid off over thirty years and the 2.3 trillion will go to zero ---if the real estate doesn’t go back into foreclosure.

The trouble begins in October. Here is a simplification of how the present banking system handles real estate. The bank loans a home buyer 500K for a home loan. The bank then sells the loan to whomever, in this case the Federal Reserve and keeps a half percent of the loan for management fees. The bank then loans the money out again and does the same thing and gets another management fee. If the bank does this 10 times, it is getting 5% in management fees on their depositor’s 500k with little or no risk. Before the Federal Reserve and the Fannie and Freddie bail out, the loans were sold to private parties. So now, it looks as if interest rates will have to rise up about 300 basis points to create interested third parties willing to invest in the real estate note market. You ask why?--- the banks don't want to hold on to 30 year 5% paper. Will rates rise, or will the Fed throw in the towel and start buying more paper?

I think all of us can agree that the stock market has reached new highs for no good reason. A lot of hard working people have retired because they can’t find a job. Many college grads are finding out that their degree isn’t worth the money they borrowed to get it.

Our government has enabled every dreamer the right to become a failure. Buy a home, get a college education and become a part of the American dream. Buy a Lotto ticket and win. And if you can't speak Spanish, you'd better learn.

So we have a housing bubble in San Marcos, I wonder how it will end? If the government rewards failure, I guess we will get more of it; it’s tragic to think that we earned it by hard work rather than ineptness.

Saturday, June 28, 2014

The Invisible Derivative's Market Reprinted

This is a reprint from June 25, 2006, and later Aug 5, 2008 that may be of interest to some of you.

Call it gamblers insurance. The most common derivatives are Puts and Calls. If you think that Google is going to go down and you want to still hold it because of its upside potential you would buy a Put at say $375. So if Google was to drop to $200, you could "put it" to the option seller at $375. The cost of this insurance option varies, depending on the volatility of the stock. Now, if you thought Google was going to go to $1,000 you could purchase a Call at $400 strike price. If the stock rose to $600 you could exercise the Call and get the stock at the $400 dollar price or the difference between the Call price and the current value.

The figures vary somewhat, but about 90% of all options expire worthless in the U.S. Stock Market.

Enter the Gunslinger (slang term for wet behind the ears Mutual Fund trader) (never seen a real bear market in his life---there hasn't been one). This guy gets the bright idea to sell both Puts and Calls. As long as the market lumbers along the guy is raking in the coin.

Say the Dow has a bad day and drops 300 points. It seems like a big move, but since it is a measure of 30 stocks bought way back in 1910, multiply the 300 point drop in value by the Dow divisor (0.123) and you get a real dollar loss of $36.90 on the Dow. Divide that by the 30 Dow stocks and you get $1.23 per stock. If that were to happen, no big deal pay out to the Puts exercised. Notice, you only get burned on the Puts OR the Calls NOT BOTH in any one point in time. I stress the words "Point In Time."

The Derivatives Market is bigger than our stock market. One analogy used the comparison of an elephant to a mouse; here is a graph from one source that puts it at 35 trillion dollars.


Graph courtesy www.gold-eagle.com. [postnote:The graph is somewhat dated, present figures suggest around 55 trillion.]

Now suppose the Dow Jones drops 1000 points. Then by some miracle the market comes back to even at lunch time. Then, it soars up 1,000 points by the close. The gunslinger gets hit going down and nailed again when it goes up (the double whammy). He would be selling Calls like crazy while the market is going down trying to recoup losses from his naked Puts, then as the market heads north he gets eaten alive by the Calls he wrote earlier.

We only picked one market; there is the bond market, the commodities market, and foreign exchange markets, to name a few. At this point, the gunslinger is in a situation that looks like the kiddy game Whack a Mole, where you have a hammer and hit the head that pops out of one of many different holes. The model turns into a real mess, when you realize that there are thousands of Mutual Fund Managers that will all be playing this game in real time. Naturally these different markets will be doing different things. The word "panic" comes to mind.

My suspicion with Mutual Funds and IRA's, is that when you specify how you want your portfolio invested, they are not moving your money from one investment to another, they are purchasing a derivative to satisfy your demands of asset allocation. This leaves them free to pursue the line of investment they feel most confident with.

So much for "what ifs," the Derivatives Market is a Fantasy Land; the playground of hedge funds and mutual funds. Where will it end? My best guess, somewhere between Ab Surdum and Ad Nausea (no, they are not towns in Iraq).

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Nest Egg Inflation

As I get older, retirement seems further off in the distance. Inflation is nibbling away at my savings. But there are bigger problems that lie hidden just beneath the surface.

The Robert Reich movie "Inequality for All," talks about the 1% getting richer and the middle class getting poorer. On the one side, the middle class still earns the same amount, but it doesn’t go as far anymore. This is called inflation, but a better description would be government printing of dollars. If we look at the rich getting richer, one item eludes people, the increase in wealth doesn’t mean that they now spend more, it most probably goes into a bank account. These extra dollars are not sloshing around in the economy, they have been absorbed into what could be labeled a “wealth sponge.” The excess of printed dollars is effectively removed from circulation.

On top of that, we have many people approaching retirement squirreling dollars away in their IRA’s and 401K’s. Many people believe that Congress enabled these retirement plans to help people save for retirement. That concept was a great vote getter, but the real reason for these plans was to increase the money available for Congress to borrow.

In two years’ time, my mint flavored Altoids have increased in price from one dollar to three dollars. The dollar double cheeseburger at McDucks is now $1.69. On Reich's documentary, he interviewed a guy making 12 million a year, and the gentleman pointed out that he only needs three pairs of blue jeans a year. So we can’t depend on the rich to stimulate the economy, and at the same time, I’ve cut down on double cheeseburgers and Altoids. Put it another way, the burn time on retirement funds has halved.

People today, are not saving for retirement like they used to. The silver foxes are starting to withdraw their retirement dollars, while the young question the concept of even saving money. Why put it in the bank at one percent when you can get a new car instead? Interest rates this low almost demand that you satisfy your urge for immediate gratification.

If we go back to Bernie Madoff, we stumble upon another problem not considered. All of his investors were rich up until they were advised he was broke. It's amazing how an excel spread sheet and a LaserJet printer can give an investor the appearance of a fabulous monthly statement, while in reality they're dead broke and clueless of the fact.

The real feat of accomplishment, is the 14 trillion dollars borrowed by the US government. It was sucked out of the financial system in a span of 10 years. This money was deposited in the banks when interest rates were 8% and higher. What happens now, when the baby boomers retire and start to withdraw their nest egg dollars? What happens if there are no new dollars coming into the system to replace the ones withdrawn?

It's kind of like the government selling 14 trillion dollars worth of tickets to the latest movie and the theater only seats 2,000. There is no problem until you decide to see the movie.

inflation has had 40 years to ravage your nest egg. As you run out of funds in retirement, your kids will try to help you out and will come to the conclusion that you just didn't save enough. They will grow up wiser--- When it comes time for them to retire, they can use their government Social Security checks to pay off their government student loans. ---Why do I get the feeling that I'm missing something here?






Sunday, June 01, 2014

The Computer Age, The New Brick Wall

Computers have changed the way the world works beyond imagination. Just as in the early 1920, the industrial age transformed the United States from an agrarian economy to an industrial one. The 80% farming the land in 1910 didn’t give up willingly, but the number of farmers dropped drastically as the Great Depression progressed. That was the “New Age” of; incandescent lighting, the telephone, electricity, the airplane, radio and the automobile. This new technology was going to make life better, and that was 1929. And it did for some.

Our present economy is in bad shape. Raising the minimum wage is not going to make better hamburger flippers, minimum wage jobs are already filled to beyond capacity. People need to realize that the work place has change dramatically with the introduction of computers, many jobs are gone for good. Try going to the Unemployment office to file a claim; you have to get on a computer and fill out the forms, and god help you if you can’t type. Just entering your data for a claim yourself, eliminates about 4 people that use to work in the unemployment office; the receptionist, the data collector, the interviewer, and the guy to match you up with a job. Type in your claim and the computer will search the data base and print out possible job positions and at the same time, determine if you are eligible for unemployment.

People without computer skills are the new frontier of unskilled laborers. Surprisingly college grads also enter into the unemployed mix. Many field have no jobs waiting for them, this includes lawyers, dentists, and health care techs. There are jobs in those field, but not tens of thousands of them. Colleges don’t guarantee jobs, they only enable the student to pursue the career selected. It is not their fault that more people will graduate this year as lawyers as there are people already practicing law.

Then you have middle management who have lost their jobs because of the computer revolution. One worker with the right software can now replace twenty people. Many people over 45, even with retraining, can’t expect to receive half of what they were previously earning--it probably took them 10 years to get to their present pay level. So they collect two years of unemployment and retire early at age 62.

This new age of technology has caught everyone flat footed just like it did in the roaring 1920’s. You could even go back to about 1906 when the mechanical calculator went into production and discover that the hundreds of thousands of accountants employed by the banking industry disappeared overnight. One person with a calculator replaced 80 workers.

Jump forward to today. The internet supplies us with many services we used to pay for. With Google, you can fix a washing machine, replace a garbage disposal or replace the brakes on your car. You can sell odds and ends to the rest of the world from the comfort of your own home.

Computer technology has made all sorts of tasks simpler and easier to accomplish. So it’s not surprising with all of the software, around, entrepreneurs have figured out that it is more cost effective to move simple repetitive jobs overseas. So in effect, we have a double whammy, a new work paradigm that revolves around computers, and an out sourcing of jobs that can be done cheaper in the third world.

The frustrating thing about the new technology is that you can spend a whole day on the phone trying to get a live person to talk to. And when a real person answers, you'll discover that you're talking to someone in India with an extremely limited English vocabulary; -- which proves you can work in this country without even being here. Theoretically a person in Hong Kong could robotically flip hamburgers in the US at 40 cents an hour---That has to be easier than flying a drone half way around the world and launching a stinger missile into Afghanistan. Let's see, I'll have one drone-burger, hold the onions and the missile.

Computer technology is the future. The trouble is, it's has transformed the labor market without telling anyone, leaving many people ill prepared or too old for tomorrow's jobs.