Sunday, July 24, 2016

The Coming Election and Reality

Obama says that the economy is hunky dory. And Donald Trump thinks that we are going to hell in a hand basket.

Let’s address the issue. We are in a World Depression that is beyond anything experienced by man in world history. You can get 6 percent back on a credit card purchase, but you get zip back for money in the bank. 60 million people have stopped looking for work and 43 million people are on food stamps. The government message is this, "Don’t acknowledge the depression, if you do so, it becomes self-fulfilling." We do not have to worry about it becoming self-fulfilling we are there.

The options we have from here are several, we need to rebuild our infrastructure. We can afford to spend trillions on roads, water and electrical. We cannot afford to spend any more on Government Quantitative Easing programs. The odd thing is that the money borrowed from savers got us to where we are now. The government cannot pay back what it has borrowed or even pay the interest on what was borrowed at a fair market rate. Government is ripping off retired people of their interest income, that they expected to be generated from their savings.

From a realistic point of view, 20 to 30 cents on the dollar is about all the government is going to pay on its debts. Just what does that mean? It means if you have savings in the bank, you are about to lose 70 percent of your purchasing power through inflation, government taxation or a new currency. The neat thing, if you are broke, it is totally painless, you have nothing to lose.

What you have to realize is, the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and Congress have turned our financial markets upside down. The expected outcome is unknown. The people in charge of this financial economic experiment, have no historical guidelines to gauge what is happening. The only thing that can be deduced is that this is not going to end well, when it ends.

We didn’t build this country spending money to get 6 percent back, we built it saving money for a rainy day. We haven’t saved anything and now we have a rainy day. It’s a little like going camping and using the toilet paper to start the fire. You’ll enjoy the meal and then discover that there is no toilet paper. It was not a problem until it became a problem.

Friday, July 22, 2016

Congress and Laws

Some Congressman by the name of Elijah Cummings is screaming that we need to pass more laws to control guns and violence. He doesn’t even impress me as an adult, he’s one of those that could panic theater viewers if the rest room lines were too long

Think about it for a minute, have the laws against handguns eliminated murder? People have killed others since the beginning of time. Everyone in this country is entitled to buy a gun before they commit their first felony. What we need to realize is that laws are there to prosecute people that violate the written law. They do not prevent people from trying to kill you. I remember back 30 years ago, a man in Cheyenne Wyoming, kicked in the restroom door on a women’s restroom and took pictures of the girl in there. The police arrested him, but he had violated no laws that could send him to jail. So they released him. Later, Wyoming fixed that by passing a law making it a crime. Of course, a week later, they found the gentleman tied to a fence post with his testicals removed.

Laws do not curb behavior; they only threaten to you with jail or prison if you get caught. If the driver next to you cuts you off and you get mad and kill him with a hand gun, you’ll get 5 years if you are caught, and with good behavior you’ll be out in 2 ½. Your odds of getting caught, about 1 in 5.

Hand guns, when mixed with alcohol and drugs, become a lethal combination. Many will go to jail for doing something very stupid they would have never done sober, like rob a store.

Believe it or not, forbidding the sale of fully automatic weapons, enabled the terrorist to kill more people. Pull the trigger on a fully automatic weapon, the clip is gone in one second and you have probably missed everyone or cut one person in half, but I digress.

The urge for Congress to act every time there is a problem is probably what has put us in this mess. We cannot regulate behavior with laws, we regulate behavior with financial rewards. You don’t shoot a Congressman; you bribe him or her. So in most cases, passing a law restricting the flow or sale of something only raises the price to the consumer. The wholesaler can charge more for illegal items. The laws created by the legislatures only change the mode of delivery and cost.

Let’s back off of the idiots in Congress. Most voters when confronted with a problem, demand an immediate government solution. Common sense suggests that if a government solution was available, it would have been applied a long time ago.

Maybe that is why most new business' start out of a garage, there are no government restrictions.

Thursday, June 30, 2016

Everyone Has a Different Right Answer

Just listening to the news about Brexit. One side says were doomed if we go down this path and the other side says this will correct all of the wrongs.

Then in the US, a vote for Hillary will continue the government in place, while the other side is fed up with all the socialism.

If you notice, we have a 50/50 split. At one time everyone was in agreement. Over time, things have changed. Once you disillusionize enough people, they begin to march to a different drummer. Not to mention the fact that people everywhere are beginning to realize that the world is in a global Depression.

The real trouble with these political arguments, both sides have an opposing solution to the problem, that will solve everything. My only concern is that both sides are adamant over what the final outcome will be if the other solution is applied instead. Common sense suggests that neither side has any idea of what real results lie ahead for either path. But both sides imply that an improper vote will set the country on a path to doom.

I’m not sure how this line of thinking turns out. Almost everything is in an evolving state. In nature, the inability to evolve and adapt to new and different conditions, means you get eaten. It nice to know that all of these individuals running amuck have a solution to all of our problems, if only they could get us to listen. I've always held, that "the people with a solution to all of our problems, are a part of the problem."

Either way, it a news media feeding frenzy. Someone will print what you want to read. It's only a matter of selecting the right TV station or newspaper. The final truth?---there are no wrong answers--go figure!

Sunday, June 12, 2016

Faux Government Investment Reality and Retirement Income

Short term interest rates all over the world are about to go negative. Which means, you’ll have to pay more now for a T- bill that will mature with a value less than the original investment. Common sense suggests that lead poisoning is rampant in world financial markets.

Let’s suppose that there is a different reason for lowering Treasury rates that allows us to arrive to the same conclusion. What if the governments don’t have enough money to pay the interest on the debt and declared a moratorium on interest payments? Hmmmm. Notice doing it this way affects both government and private debt. By just lowering the interest rates to zero for government obligations leaves private debt untouched.

Either way, nobody is going to add any additional money to their savings, you mise well go for immediate gratification of your desires. Notice that those who have saved over 40 years are in a different boat. The money that they have saved for retirement is no longer generating investment income.

If we reasonalbly assume that the average retired couple can save 200K in their lifetime, at 8% interest, that would return about $16,000 a year in retirement income. Or about $1,333 per month for perputitiy. The average monthly social Security pension is about $1,335. So with a married couple, net benefits would be about $4,000 a month with everything added in. Change the interest rate to 1% and the story changes. Their savings are depleted in 13 years. And then when they really might need additional funds, they do not have them.

Unfortunately, the retiree’s kids will never even comprehend what the government did to their parents. The kids usually have no idea as to their parent’s money management skills. All they may be able to surmise is that they ran out of savings. The kids would never guess that the government ripped their parents off of about 300K in interest. This is money that they would have inherited. This is the Ultimate government coup de grace, of people that saved for retirement. The neat thing is that it is invisible. Old people are considered inept and incompetent by the young. So complaining about what the government is doing to them falls on deaf ears. Of course without schooling in economics, the elderly have a pretty good idea that they have been ripped off but don’t understand how it was accomplished.

The Federal Reserve has removed compound interest from the retirement community’s reach. This step eliminates the cost of government borrowing. With this spread between government borrowing and private sector borrowing, it is possible to generate a new income stream for Congress to spend. The vehicle of choice, student loans. Here is how it works; Congress borrows one trillion dollars of old folk’s money at 1 percent interest and loans it to students at 8%. The interest generated using the rule of 72, says that the government will double their money in 10 years. Then they return the money borrowed to the seniors while still having the 1 trillion of student loan debt still on the books. The neat thing about this income stream is that the government can gouge the young for a lifetime, not just their retirement years.

I’d never accuse the people in government of being intelligent enough to formulate the above plan, but it does illustrate the idea that “The road to hell is paved with good intensions.” The young are not saving because they can’t afford to and the old are dying off, broke and destitute. Kind of makes you wonder, is it time to avoid government retirement programs? I think so, gold and silver keep the politicians honest only because they can’t print either one of them.

An added bonus, the rest home cannot see the assets in your bank deposit box. The Gold and Silver can dance until you want the cows come home.

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Unemployment An Invisible Problem Of This Great Depression

The jobs report came out and it looks as if the country as a whole only created 38,000 jobs for the month of May and I believe they readjusted the figures for April down to 123,000 from 160.000.

The good news is that the unemployment rate went from 5% down to 4.7%. Of course the news that 500,000 people stopped looking for work kind of makes you wonder about the idiots cranking out the figures. It’s a little bit like an expert hunter talking about taking “sound shots” while hunting. That’s where you hear a noise in the bush and take a shot at it. You know what he’s doing, and your only question is why?

Obama asked at a town meeting if he would have done anything different in his Presidency, said that he wished that he had advised the people of the severity of the recession we were in at the time it was happening.

The economic consensus of our present mess, is that we walked by the graveyard whistling and got to the other side without a scratch. The trouble is, the demons know you have to come back the other way sooner or later.

Some other news source stated that half of the US population can’t come up with $400 cash for an emergency, they need to use a credit card. That scares me.

Blue Shield in Texas has announced that they will increase premium rates by 60% November 1st. If you are paying $400 now, it’s not rocket science to calculate the new monthly payment; but you’d have to be a rocket scientist to cover the increased premium for a family of 3. Obama Care will destroy the private insurance industry. No profit, they are gone. Government programs are like public restrooms, abused just as much as they are used and always underfunded.

46 million households are on food stamps. That’s out of 134 million households. It’s not like anybody is starving, they ought to pass a law against wearing stretch pants in Walmart if you weigh over 200 pounds.

But I digress. Where do we go from here with 14 to 20 percent unemployment? Does raising the minimum wage to $15 create jobs? I can see the logic in wanting to start out at $15 an hour as an employee. We need to ask the question, are the people protesting unemployed? If so, raising the minimum wage is not going to help them get a job. Millions of people were unemployed during the Great Depression. It took government work programs on infrastructure to open up the jobs market. Obama couldn't figure that out, maybe Trump can.

Of course the government claims that unemployment is about 4.7 percent and inflation is almost negative. Then we have the banks paying interest of about 1 percent. Toilet paper use to have 1000 sheets per roll. It’s a buck a roll now and smaller, it has about 200 sheets and the rolls are 2 inches less wide. So a toilet paper inflation calculator suggests that inflation is about 15 percent a year.

The irritating thing is you feel like throwing a roll of toilet paper at a politician, but when times are tough, you have to reconsider, use it where it is really needed.

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Idiots in the News Media

Trump while campaigning, raised about 6 million dollars in pledges for our veterans. Some of the pledgers might have had a bit too much to drink or were absorbed in their own self-importance and over pledged what they were willing to deliver. So the totals don’t quite match up. But realistically that’s the way it goes in most pledge drives. The heart is willing but the wallet or wife isn’t.

ABC news announcer got labeled a sleaze by Trump for pressing the issue of who received checks and the Washington Post was demanding a list of recipients. Here is a guy that raises 6 million dollars while running for President in the Republican primary. He’s not fund raising for himself. Why would you accuse him of not distributing the funds considering what he accomplished for the same organization in 2015?

And then we have Hillary Clinton saying;
she was glad that Trump had given out the promised money.
"The problem here is the difference between what Donald Trump says and what Donald Trump does," Clinton said. "He's bragged for months about raising $6 million for vets and donating $1 million himself, but it took a reporter to shame him into actually making the contribution."

This woman leaves a bad taste in my mouth, and I’ll bet she has the same complaint with "Blowjob" Bill her husband.

What ever happened to giving credit to someone who does something great for others? What is the incentive to do it again if the media accuses you of false promises and skepticism for what you have accomplished?

Something is wrong with the news media, they expect us to be trained monkeys programed to their mindset. They are the fools, I'm tired of listening to their impression of what they think reality is.

Their perceptions don't fit into the real world. Of course I'm just one person, but someone that can raise 6 million while he's doing something else, is better than any politician.

Maybe the news sources are treating Trump like every other politician that they have covered. They are not worth a damn, maybe that's what makes Trump DIFFERENT.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

The Venezuelan Solution to Bankruptcy

Just reading a bit of news about the dire predicament Venezuela is in. Their currency is in shambles and there are riots in the streets. Somebody suggested that the country adopt the US dollar as currency of the realm. The reason being, their government and the politicians can't print American dollars. It kind of works for all the wrong reasons.

Maybe there is a lesson for us in there somewhere. Socialism fails when you run out of “Other people’s money.”

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Federal Bureaucracy "Writes our laws"

After a government edict, bathrooms will have to cater to the sexes differently. Notice there was no law passed, some bureaucrat in some part of government decided to change the way we run our lives with a new directive, with the power of federal government backing it up. There could be significate costs associated with complying with this law. Bathrooms could run about $150K to construct for each institution so cited and naturally the dollars are not forthcoming from the Federal Government.

Now you know why ranchers were so fed up with the Bureau of Land Management when they told farmers they couldn't graze where they were grazing or they had to pay fees. No law was passed, some bureaucrat wrote a directive and it became the law of the land.

Resort spas all over the country had to install lifts for quad and paraplegics to use the swimming pools at a very significant cost. No mention was made that they probably don’t have control of their bodily functions. The "law" was written by some Federal bureaucrat and so shall it be.

Many land owners have not been able to enjoy their purchase of land because of environmental regulations like the snail darter or some other endangered species, which are directives created by some person with a “Save the whales” mentality.

We are beginning to notice that Federal agency’s can write directives that are enforceable in all 50 states. The justness of these directives is never in question; it is your violation of them that is in question. You need about 200K to fight one of these disagreements in court, and the trouble is, you might not live long enough to see your docket date in court.

North Carolina wrote a state law to countermand the issued directive of a federal agency. The protestors think that the law is directed to discriminate against trans gender’s. Wrong the law is directed at the Federal agency that thinks that it can dictate its will on the people. Some federal agency wants the states to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to provide separate bathrooms for 10,000 people, this is crazy! Who gets to pay for it?

We have to wake up and realize that these federal agencies are writing directives on a federal level that are considered laws of the land. They have completely screwed up the food menus at high schools in California. The food they demand be provided may be healthy but it gets thrown in the trash. Ever eat a whole wheat burrito? Each meal has to have a fruit and that goes in the trash.

The big teaser with the Federal Government directives, if the state does not follow them, the Federal subsidy money will not go to the state.

There are a lot of people that want to enforce on others their “justifiable" righteous thinking on the issue. We need to stop this snowballing bureaucracy from layering us with more directives that make absolutely no sense. We should be a government of laws, not government directives. Being against bathrooms for trans genders is not anti anything issue. This is a non perfect world and there is no perfection in a non perfect world especially if someone needs to pay for it.

Why do we need to punish a state for saying no to a government directive? State's rights is the real issue. Less government intervention is the key. If the Federal Government wanted to make a real impression about bathrooms, how about a directive to keep them clean and stocked with toilet paper? How about rest rooms for the homeless?-- that's a far bigger group than the trans genders. But I digress--- Just give me back my McDonald's French fries deep fried in animal fat.

Saturday, April 30, 2016

The Coming Storm

When you turn on the news, you can tell the difference between a Democrat and a Republican just as easy as you can discern a woman’s voice from that of a man. 99 percent of the people speaking think that by some stroke of luck, what they say will change someone’s vote. My grandfather use to say, if you want to waste some time, talk about religion or politics. People are willing to die for their beliefs. You are not going to change their mind, no matter how long you talk.

I’m not sure how the Presidential election will go, but I do know that the economy is in a horrible mess. We have learned how to produce more with 20 percent less labor using computers. Raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour didn’t create any more jobs but it did raise the pay of those working for 2 dollars more than minimum wage. Everyone got a pay raise, not just the entry level worker.

We are getting one percent interest on our savings. It doesn’t look like the Democrats have our best interests at heart with this very low rate. The savers are being taxed at 5 to 7 percent minimum with these rates if you consider the “lost” interest from the lack of a realistic interest rate.

Stock markets and real estate are the real booming markets to make money in. The economy kind of offers up a question of “How is this possible?” The world credit orgy party could be ending soon.

The thing that could really start a financial meltdown is the exit of Great Britain from the European Union on June 23rd. Financial leaders talk about negative interest rates as if it is some tried and tested method of fixing the economy.

How dare people save money all their life and become rich—go figure. The funny thing is that most of the poor people spend all of their earnings trying to appear rich. Governments depend on banks for loans. And the banks loan their savers' deposits. Now you see why the banks were not allowed to fail. The government needs them, in order to juggle 21 trillion of borrowed debt. Common sense would suggest that a government cannot spend its way from bankruptcy back into prosperity.

At some point this house of cards will collapse. In 1929 individual investors panicked and brought the market down quite suddenly. In today’s market, there are investment advisors, they get paid to keep you in the market. If they sell everything, they are out of a job. So they are going to ride your 401k into the ground.

We have been here before in the Great Depression of 1929 and the pundits are right, it will be different this time. The people of 1929 were stupid and didn’t know what they were doing (believe that and I will tell you another). The people in charge right now are holding on by their fingertips. A straight face and a little hyperbole and they come across as financial wizards.

Turn on your TV and listen to the ads. Retirement is going to be fun. You’ll have gobs of money from your 401k. The new “Rule of 72” for interest rates has been changed. You work until you are 72 and then hope you don’t outlive your savings. The eighth wonder of the world is no longer “Compound Interest,” but “Unlimited Government Benefits.”

The one thing that should stand out, is that putting money in the bank and saving it, is an act of futility. If you have savings, convert it to cash and put it in a safety deposit box or buy some gold and silver. There is no reason to allow the bank to use your deposits at this low interest rate. If enough people do it, interest rates have to rise.

I think Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump and I are looking for the wheels to fall off of this Obama agenda band wagon before the election. Common sense, has value, but it's discovery, is often times late to the table.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Jobs Leaving the Country, a Public Joke

Ford Announced plans to move a plant to Mexico and create 2,800 jobs. You have to wonder if they are paying $15 an hour. Who is getting to full employment first? the hamburger flippers in this country or the people of Mexico?

In the US, the UAW had pushed for higher wages in its contract talks with the automaker last year, and Tuesday's announcement prompted a swift reaction. "Today’s a disappointment and very troubling," UAW President Dennis Williams said in a statement. "For every investment in Mexico it means jobs that could have and should have been available right here in the USA."
This guy from the UAW is the first guy I know that can pull a rug out from underneath himself, while standing on it.

Then I hear that companies have evaded 100’s of billions of dollars in US taxes by moving overseas. Don’t get me wrong, but do corporations belong to countries like people do? They are machines that make money. By all means move if it increases the bottom line. Dividends is what the game is all about.

Then in Kalifornia people are outraged that the state colleges are taking more out of state students at the expense of in state students. They pay a lot higher tuition. It kind of lends to the opinion that the outraged were economically challenged, they might have to pay for their kid to go to college

Clinton got elected president in 1992 only because Ross Perot ran as an independent. Ross saw the jobs being sucked out of our economy. He was right, but it is a little too late to do much about it now. We could get some of it back over 20 years with the right policy, but it won’t happen overnight. Don’t hold your breath on this one, the word “Never,” comes to mind.

June seems like the month that everything will hit the fan. The primary election process in the US comes to a head, and the vote for Great Britain to stay in the Euro comes to a vote on June 23. And let’s face it, the European Union has flooded the countries in it, with minority populations that they didn’t want and now they have a way of saying “No more immigrants.”

As things get worse, expect more of the unexpected. We could invade Mexico and make it the 51'st state. That way we wouldn't have to worry about jobs leaving the country or the illegal immigrants; they would no longer be illegal.