Friday, December 25, 2020

The Corona Virus Panic- a Chinese Fire Drill

Divided the 300,000  COVID-19  deaths by 365 days in a year and then again by 50 states and it comes out to 16.5 people a day.  Figure that 2.7 million people died in 2019 before COVID-19.  Do the same process over again. That turns out to be 148 people dying per day, per state.   This model is flawed because the 50 states are not evenly populated. I used the assumption all states are equal, to create a baseline for our perspective of the virus, normal deaths vs the virus. The normal death rate of 148 vs the perceived corona virus death rate of 16.5 a day.

When we count the COVID-19 deaths, did COVID-19 kill them or was the death from something else like old age?  We really won’t know until the statistics are gathered over the next three months on deaths nationwide for 2020.  I would suspect that we may have a drop in heart disease deaths by about 100,000.  We may have about 60,000 less influenza deaths.  I would expect an increase in opioid and alcohol related deaths.  Deaths from pneumonia will be nonexistent.

When you look at all of the diseases a person could die of, it becomes apparent, that there is the propensity to distort the actual cause of death.  Jumping to a conclusion happens all of the time.  People can die of multiple causes. The chosen choice of death can alter the statistics.  A hospital that gets a $40,000 government subsidy for each COVID-19 death, can turn a pneumonia victim into a COVID-19 statistic.  I really can’t blame a hospital for trying to make a buck.

The political ploy in this mess is very insidious.  It won the democrats an election, through fear generated upon the general populace.  The news sources have created a panic and fear campaign throughout the country.  People believe that many are dying like flies all over the place and that they are next.  79 percent of the people dying are over the age of 60 and old age is a natural form of death.  This has gotten ridiculous.  You might catch COVID-19, but it ain’t going to kill you.  But we are told if we don’t wear a mask, we are responsible for killing others.  All of the anti-mask research papers have been censored by Google. This mask mandate is a way the government can look like it is addressing the issue with a solution.  It placates the masses; wear a mask and you are safe. The Guverment will save us!

Fascism wants you to be a part of the group.  Hitler's second in command, Herman Goering said about war: 

Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.”
  So, with COVID-19, “you are killing people by not wearing your mask.” Sound familiar?

In essence, if the state governments were to tell everyone over the age of 60 to hide inside their homes, the rest of us could continue enjoying life.  The number of people dying would not be a factor of notice for day-to-day commerce.  And commerce is what drives the economy.  Also note, the people under the age of 60 are not retired and need a source of livelihood, a job, to pay the bills.  331,000,000 people are in this country. Of the deaths this year, 1/10th of 1 percent (300,000) have been dubbed COVID-19 related.  When you compare the number of people affected by the lockdown and compare that to the number the virus has killed, the cure is worse than the disease.

“Wearing a mask is not going to keep the virus away” or “Wearing a mask will keep the virus at away.”  Neither statement can be proven, it has to be taken on faith. However, “Clapping your hands keeps the elephants out of New York City” must be true, there are no elephants in New York City.

300,000 deaths additional to the 2.7 million from all other causes is not a large amount in comparison to the total population.  By staying at home, people are not going to avoid getting the virus, it only delays it.  In the normal propagation of the virus, the more virulent strains kill the host and it ends the virus's ability to propagate. Strains that don’t kill the host, tend to survive to infect again; that is the virus to catch.  A hospital is the perfect medium for the virulent virus to survive long enough to infect others; that’s the virus you don’t want to catch.

I’m 74, if I want to go to a restaurant or fly on an airplane, I am going to enjoy my latter years of life, not sit in my home quivering in fear.   This panic has been exaggerated by the news services and needs to stop.  People are dying, but not in any amount that warrants panicking everyone.  Or maybe I should qualify that, the number of people dying is insignificant when you consider the total population.  We don’t need to ruin the lives of everyone to save those elderly who are already compromised and may catch the disease and die.  We know how to protect them now.

Imagine if the newspaper printed the headline “40 million people without jobs are starving to death.” These are the “non-essential” people in our country (restaurants, barbershops, bars, fitness centers, etc.). Take this group, bankrupt them, deplete their savings from lack of work, and now you have a real disaster. Grandma’s son is unemployed and the extra bucks he mails her isn’t coming.  40 million people not paying taxes or contributing to Social Security. This could be a very sobering year for our government. 

Another scary thing to comprehend, many readers question the validity of the writer who has no scientific credentials.  “Follow the science,” is a good way to bury one’s head in the sand.  Economics and business acumen can be a better guide to addressing the corona virus crisis, than science by itself.  Then if you discredit common sense, you mise well follow the herd off of the cliff.

The overreaction of government using lockdowns has turned a nasty disease into an economic meltdown with very obvious consequences.  The effects of which will play out in the coming year.

Well that’s all for now, I would like to wish all my readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Take care.

 

5 comments:

dearieme said...

In Britain they used a bludgeon when what was required was a rapier.

You can argue a case that by June the epidemic in Britain had finished. What followed may well have been an artefact of mass testing with a poor test. Oh dear, what a bloody mess.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi dearieme

The panic is real, the news sources have increased the anxiety level of everyone.

Let's see if all of these countries zero their corona death counts to start out the new year. I suspect they won't.

Jim in San Marcos said...

I need to add:

The panic is real, the reason for it isn't. There is no impending doom, it is a virus that will kill just like the flu. Almost everyone will survive. 99.9 percent survival rate should leave almost everyone alive.

dearieme said...

Happy New Year, Jim, to you and yours.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Cheers

And from us to all of you, Happy New Year

The best of luck to all

Take care