Saturday, January 24, 2015

Currency Adjustments (The Collapse of the Euro)

Switzerland gave no notice when it stopped supporting the Euro. People were surprised that the message wasn’t telegraphed like the Federal Reserve does. Think about it for one moment. Why give any advanced notice? England in 1967 denied that it would devalue the Pound up to the minute it did it. We went off the gold standard in the blink of an eye. When it comes to currency, countries are ruthless.

Right now, we probably have several European countries printing the first of their new currency. A new currency could take from about 3 to 8 months to produce before any announcement is made. Notice one thing, this all has to happen under extreme secrecy. It will be a sudden and swift conversion from one currency to another. Figure a three day weekend with a holiday sandwiched in so the currency can be distributed to the banks.

Europe is going off of the Euro. It is a little like a divorce. Each side thinks their significate other has no idea of what is about to happen. The trouble is, the shoe doesn’t fit any better for you than it does for her. I would hazard a guess that the following countries are now printing a new currencies; Spain, Portugal, Italy, and France. This is all about the failure of Euro.

Travel on to oil related problems, and any country that has an economy supported by oil at $90 a barrel will soon repudiate its debts and issue a new currency. Of course the basket cases like Venezuela, Greece, or Nigeria, are more likely to witness a regime change first and a new currency second. In this case you lose your life savings.

What we will be facing is the rise of dictatorships where one individual can get things done; replacing a Democracy smothered in bureaucracy. Adolf Hitler’s rise to power wasn't so surprising, Germany of the 1930's was today’s Greece, smothered in debt.

The European commonwealth is going to buy back over a trillion Euros as a Quantitative Easing package. They looked at what the Fed did in the US and it appears to have worked. The trouble is, the effect was cosmetic. It moved future demand into present demand. Politicians that manipulate the financial system too much, will end up losing the confidence and support of their citizens.

At some point in the future, gold silver and platinum will have to be a part of any world monetary system. The present system is a political solution to a financial problem. Increasing the amount of currency that a government can print to pay the bills, over time loses all perspective. You end up paying more for less. Savings is defined as the option to consume later what you produced today. Printed dollars are the product of zero production, but they spend just as well as those that were earned and saved.

Look for France to exit out of the Euro in the coming year, followed by Greece, Spain and Portugal. The reason I picked France to be first, is that there used to be a saying that the French devalued the French Franc every time they changed their underwear. Let's give them an excuse to change their underwear.


dearieme said...

Wags suggest that the Eurozone could be "saved" by just one country leaving it. Germany.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi dearieme

That is hilarious. Kind of reminds me of when my young nephew hit his thumb with a hammer and I suggested that we hit the other thumb with the hammer to get them to match. The "are you nuts" look on his face was priceless.

It could come to that though, its Germany's toys and Germany's Euros that will foot the bill.

Joseph Oppenheim said...

Interesting the kind of people who don't know that it was the US, via the Marshall Plan, who bailed out Germany after ww2.

Interesting also the kind of people who don't know that after ww1, it was austerity imposed on Germany because of ww1 reparations (German debt) that led to German hyperinflation bringing to power a guy with a funny mustache.

dearieme said...

Funny how Germany found reparations unbearable after WWI but had happily imposed more severe reparations on France after the War of 1870.

AIM said...

All countries are in massive debt. Everyone is in massive debt. This toxic and destructive concept that debt was a solution was bought by everyone. Now the whole global economy will eventually come collapsing down and need a complete rebuild. Hopefully the rebuild will be a result of lessons learned and not more false economic concepts.