Wednesday, March 12, 2014

The Randomness of Life Made Logical

As a kid we were always asking the question “Why?” We wanted to know the answers. The trouble is in today’s adult world, there are no real experts with all of the answers, just a bunch of people with their best explanation for the occurrence. If you get a majority of them to agree, then that must be the reason. One thing overlooked, is that there may be no real reason why an event occurred, like a big rise or a large drop in the stock market. Of course if you happen to be a financial advisor, you had better have a reason why it happened, if you don’t, you lose credibility. People demand reasons for what is moving the market, and a lack of reasonable answers, and you’re out of a job. Common sense suggest that the person with the most right answers should have the best chance at becoming fabulously wealthy. So we can deduce that there is a difference, having an answer helps you hold on to your job and if they were the right answers, you wouldn’t need a job.

Suppose everyone in the world seeks to draw a line through 4 dots of news that they consider important. And that line is their interpretation of how the world functions according to them. Nothing is random, everything is planned to happen. And there are those that are in control that naturally pass this power on to others in secret to perpetuate this control through the ages-If you believe this I have a bridge for sale. The real key here, is that everything that happens in the real world is random. If I hadn’t have gone to the pool one day, I would have never met my present wife. My life would have been entirely different. There aren’t a bunch of secret people in control, it only sells well to the dumb and stupid.

Rich people are considered smart, and poor people are considered stupid. So if you are poor, you have to think of an excuse as to why you are poor and at the same time extremely intelligent. It brings to mind health insurance, Congress states that health care is unaffordable, well I have news for them, it is only unaffordable to those that have no money. No one is denied access to treatment, the hospital that provided the service, is stiffed by the patient.

So what we are really looking at is a world that is very random. Most people grab certain items as truths, and intertwine them to explain the world about them. Notice however, to challenge their perceive reality will invite their wrath, their world works for them and in their own minds, everything is very well thought out. Nobody will deny that there are random events, but many events are not considered random. For example take the group: the Middle East, Israel and the CIA, or the group bankers, finance, and US government. Most theories of thought have to have someone for the believer to blame for their current condition. And of course when everything is going great and the money is just rolling in, it is because of their own “superior intelligence.”

So onward to the final step, cycles. Everything in our lives has a cycle that repeats—boom to bust. This is where the fabric of our perception of reality clashes with reality. Build too many houses, nobody then needs one. Raise too many pigs, the price of bacon drops and farmers stop raising pigs. Blame whoever you want when you face one of these crisis. Note that these different items have different life cycles. Pork might be 12 years, and housing may be 8 years. The prosperity of a nation has a cycle. I have suggested that it revolves around the life span average of the population. Since people are living longer now, the time between depressions has lengthened, people don’t drop dead at 50 anymore, they live to be 75 to 80 so at present, there are very few people around to remind of us of our collective foolishness of the 1930’s. And plus you always hear, “It’s different this time, we know better.”

We all know what is going on, the Jews, the banks, the stock brokers, the government etc. control what is happening. These beliefs make our world real and explain the “why” of what is happening even if it can’t be validated by reasonable sources. The trouble is, we are in an economic cycle that travels from boom to bust, we have had the boom and the next part of the cycle is the bust.

The real perceived reality of Facebook, Google, and other internet stocks where everyone marvels at the price levels paid for the acquisition like Whatsapp boggle the mind. Is the game at a point to where absurd values that make no sense are reasonable? We are at a point to where being reasonable and logical has no meaning. My common sense suggests that things are not quite as they appear.

Most people are set in their views. Trying to Change someone’s perspective of the world is next to impossible. It won’t happen no matter how hard and long you argue. Our thought processes have taken the randomness out of our world and replace it with an order that is logical to us. We do not have the ability to look at our environment and assimilate information in an unbiased manner -- we interpret.

What will happen next? It won’t be words, it will be an event. The stock and bond markets are the last two games in play. The bond market is very sick and the stock market is very healthy for investing. It’s a little like skating on thin ice, everything is just great until it isn’t.


Anonymous said...

Randomness is especially true with regards to auto accidents, and auto deaths.
If you had not made the last green light, you would not have been at this intersection, to get hit by a drunk driver.
If you hadn't been stopped by a red light, you would have been involved in a multicar pileup on the freeway, resulting in several deaths.
Fate can intervein in our life at any given day, and change our life forever,(usually for the worse.)

Anonymous said...

look at the chart, we have halved our daily gasoline intake and that would spell trouble for crude, but the rest of the world is eating it up I guess.

dearieme said...

"having an answer helps you hold on to your job and if they were the right answers, you wouldn’t need a job": my compliments on a lovely aphorism.

Anonymous said...

"People demand reasons for what is moving the market,".. True. Mass media always has an answer for why the stock market went up or down. 100 years of stock market analysis, and not one day was reported as a random event. :)

Sometimes, the media uses the same excuse on different days, even if the market moved in a different direction than the last time!

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Anon 6:00

Thank you for the links. I really liked the second one.

The real bothersome thing, is that the oil refiners can make more money selling gasoline to Asia instead of the US market. So the price of gas here at home is going to go up--adding ethanol makes gasoline more expensive and at the same time reduces the energy delivered a gallon. Why sell gas in the US for $3.50 when you can get $4.00 overseas?

So when gas prices here rise to $4 a gallon, it won't pay to ship it overseas anymore.

People already pay $1.65 for a quart of drinking water, so 5 dollar gasoline can't be far away.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Anon 12:57

I agree.

One random event by itself means little. Put two together the same day, and things get difficult. Sandwich 3 together and you get a panic and your not quite sure why.

The stock market is a little like betting on the horses, you only hear about the winners. The trouble is, a lot of the winners in today's market are ready for the glue factory and don't know it.

Thank you for your comments

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi dearieme

Thank you for the new vocabulary word "aphorism." I'm glad you liked it.

Take care

Joseph Oppenheim said...

So, you've only just figured out that randomness is behind much of what happens. But, its more than with financial markets. Plus, the world has entered a new paradigm - a quantum physics, not a Newtonian one - everything is connected; the world is a living organism. Even just words matter b/c they can generate events. That's why history means next to nothing, other than the randomness people who think it does, react to it.17

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Joseph

If you meant to sound insulting and arrogant, you succeeded.

If they ever name a star or planet after you, I hope you'll make a sincere effort to visit it.

Anonymous said...


Joseph's profile shows:
1. He has a few blogs, but no one is leaving comments.
2. He has a book on Amazon! However, It is only .2 inches thick, and is ranked: #5,991,397.
To put this in perspective:
"Amazon Best Seller Rank 50,000 to 100,000 - selling close to 1 book a day."

Rob in NS said...

Randomness is something that pervades everyones life and finding logic in it is something that is an inherently human pre-occupation. That said I will have to remember your quote about the stars. It is a good one.

Anonymous said...

Never bothered to mention how much I like reading this blog but I must say this post was outstanding. First time reading the comments and it's obvious your readers are more or less in sync with you. That's good to see, I am tired of WWE-themed message sections.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Welcome Anon 9:25

I'm glad you liked the article. That is my paycheck. I write this in my spare time after work.

This blog started when I added a comment to someone else's blog's comment page. I wrote something I felt the world had to read and alas, it was in the comments section. You know how far that goes. Nobody reads the comments.

The "comments section" can be a hidden jewel--if there aren't too many remarks to read through.

Take care, and thank you for reading. You made my day!

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Rob

Your quote will go down in history, hopefully.

"Randomness is something that pervades everyone's life and finding logic in it is something that is an inherently human pre-occupation."

I like it!

Rob in NS said...

Thanks Jim

The quote was my bid at being profound. When I was young I never gave a thought to the ebbs and flows of life. However as I grow older I have begun to realize how randomness and fate has affected mine. The same can be said when analyzing the bigger issues of the day in economy and politics. Fate does intervene in radomness. For me the hardest part of making sense of it all is trying to justify who wins and loses. Many the winners don't deserve it. That being said life wouldn't be worth living if we knew how it would turn out. Anyway a great post by you sir.