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Unemployment benefits have been extended to 99 weeks, (93 if you are in Kalifornia). If I was 40 years younger, I'd buy a surf board and a gallon of suntan oil.
You know times are tough when you hear on the radio that the Mexicans are sending money to the US for illegal aliens out of work.
15 comments:
Well, let's see...
Unemployment feeds on itself. Those out of work aren't spending much so the businesses concerned will need to downsize due to lower revenues (more unemployment). The 80 million demographic of boomers are starting to retire and are saving (saving a lot due to their losses in real estate and stocks) so their spending is going down, so the businesses concerned will need to downsize due to lower revenues (more unemployment). Commerical real estate is about to collapse big time... more unemployment will come out of that. Once the government's artificial stimulus stops more jobs will fall away... more unemployment. As of yet there isn't any new technologies or industries (like the internet) to drive jobs and growth in the real economy. True unemployment (U6 will get as close as you can get from the government) is more like 18%. It would take a major productivity resurgence to correct this trend. We'll have high unemployment for at least a decade. Who knows how long it will take to get back under 5%?!
Tyrone... you might as well color in ALL of your map with a black marker.
The stock market will reflect all of this within the next year or so. And the USD will have a resurgence as a result.
Down the slipper slope we go. Weeee!
I meant to write...
Down the slippery slope we go.
WHEEEEEEE!!!!
Looks like a real mess. Even if the economy improves, who would want to hire someone out of work for 2+ years?
Nice graphic, thanks. What does Sep 2009 @ 8.5% represent? National U3 was at 9.8% in Sep.
One of my favorites is this one, although data ends with July 2009.
http://tipstrategies.com/archive/geography-of-jobs/
BTW, everybody keeps mentioning that U3 still and might not surpass the 81 recession. But what is never discussed is the base rate of unemployment when the recession started. We're coming off one of the lowest U3 number on record and already hit 10%+ where as the 80's recession started from a MUCH higher rate. Relatively this blows the 80's away.
Hi Poly
It is unemployment by county. I copied the beginning and ending screen shot of the video and that part got cut off.
The actual animation is in the link above the first picture. Scroll down on the animation for more information.
I wasn't thinking clearly, the pictures look like links and they are not. I kind of shot myself in the foot on this one. Sorry.
Tyrone... you might as well color in ALL of your map with a black marker.
I'd like to take credit for the map, but I just passed the link to it along to Jim.
AIM, you're very right; it will feed on itself, and I've asked friends the same question about the next technology to fill the void. My take on "that" technology: we don't need it; we already have too much to absorb.
I wasn't thinking clearly, the pictures look like links and they are not. I kind of shot myself in the foot on this one. Sorry.
I love the setup, Jim. But it was easy for me to understand since I had already seen the map play.
Hi Tyrone
I re-edited the first paragraph to end some of the confusion. I can't edit my blog at work so all I could do was put in a comment to Poly explaining my lapse in thinking.
You touch upon an interesting point about the next technology to fill the gap. Around 1910 the adding machine got rid of about 90 percent of the accountants at banks. These were good paying jobs that just went poof. Then with the introduction of mechanical farm machinery, in the early 1920's we went from a nation of farmers (90%) down to today where we have about 3% farming the land. That didn't set very well during the Great Depression.
Technology has eliminated a lot of jobs. Right now, I think we are in an adjustment phase that could last 10 to 20 years. As you stated, we have too much to absorb. We need to learn to live with our new found technology and use it effectively. And that is going to take time. The new jobs are not going to be anything like the old jobs that have disappeared.
The rate of change in this world has accelerated drastically. When I went to college, I had a slide rule and a typewriter (with erasable paper) and it took two days to register for classes.
I could sure use a functioning crystal ball,---one that isn't government issued.
Thank you for the link and the ata boy.
How long will the government continue to subsidize car and home purchases? How long will they extend unemployment insurance? Food stamps? How long will they continue to keep the TBTF companies afloat? How long will they keep interest rates at zero? How much more stimulus money is coming? How long will they allow the pretend and extend to go on? How long will they allow companies to have off balance sheet records? How long will they allow banks to mark to myth instead of to market?
Who knows how long. But when they do stop it the whole house of cards will come down. It will cause blood to run in the streets. Obama and all concerned will lose all credibility. America will finally realize that nothing but clowns have been driving the bus.
Whether it is an inflationary or deflationary depression, the geniuses in control now and any future geniuses that take control will not be able to avoid it. No matter how hard they try to prevent it and how long they try to avoid it, economic collapse is coming. I don't think they can hold it off for another 5 years. Within the next 5 years it all will unravel.
Hi Aim
No argument from me. This massive spending and zero interest rates boggles my mind. You might give a relative an interest free loan, but some stranger? It use to take a handgun to get that sort of financing.
I think that it is very obvious that the books are being cooked. VP Bidden said that they had to bail out the banks otherwise we would have had a depression (Spoken like a true sheep herder)(pure sheep dip). I just don't buy the idea that we have averted anything, just postponed it.
Hi Anon 6:57
I don't see how we can keep this going 5 more months.
If Congress passes the health bill, that could raise 2 trillion, but that is on the assumption of 4% unemployment. We are looking at 20% unemployment and health care could push that to 30%. Tax receipts don't necessarily increase when you raise taxes. That was demonstrated during the Great Depression. The government raised taxes and the people gave them the home and moved on.
The government raised taxes and the people gave them the home and moved on.
And nowadays, the Californians searched the internet, found good buys with free shipping and no sales tax, ordered their goods online, and had them delivered right to their doorstep.
I can see the writing on the wall. Calif state government is in big trouble. DMV registration has doubled, sales tax has gone up, etc. and this is just the beginning. They'll raise income taxes, property taxes and taxes on everything. State and national economy is on a crash and burn trajectory.
I'm buying a motorhome and going to live the full time mobile lifestyle. Going to set up a trailer space and mailbox in Nevada so it is my domicile state (no state income tax). Gonna wander around the country buying homes at deep discounts... fixing them up... and selling them (that is what I'm doing right now here in Calif).
My business will pay for my motor home, fuel, maintenance, food, etc. So all my expenses will be covered and fully deductible.
Plus I'll be able to see the country, visit friends and family, attend seminars and workshops all over the nation.
Being mobile gives one a flexibility to earn more money than one can from a fixed geographical location.
I'm very happy with this plan.
Severe conditions require severe solutions.
"You know times are tough when you hear on the radio that the Mexicans are sending money to the US for illegal aliens out of work."
The world turned upside-down.
News from Florida:
"Florida employers will soon be asked to pay more -- a lot more -- to cover the cost of unemployment compensation, adding yet another thorn in the side of businesses struggling to recover from the economic downturn.
For employers now paying the lowest rate, the tax will jump from $8.40 per employee to $100.30the state Revenue Department said Wednesday."
An 8 fold increase should certainly help small businesses survive -- not.
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