Saturday, October 25, 2008

Dow 6000 Next Week

Relax, no reason to panic. In today’s WSJ everything is just rosy. There is a years worth of bad news in just one issue! CALPERS lost 21% of it fund since June (48 billion dollars). They even mentioned that 63% of their stocks were in the global market (talk about dumber than a sack of rocks). They might have to ask California employers for a 4% increase in contributions on top of the current 13%.

Then on the same page there is an article projecting state budget shortfalls for next year ranging from 2 to 10 percent depending on the state. Let’s just triple that to be more reasonable 6 to 30 percent. California was projecting 5% so we will figure 15%. What part of the state budget gets cut first? CALPERS employees: Teachers, Police, Fire, Highways and all sorts of government services. This is going to be fun for everyone!

Page 3: Chrysler will slash 5,000 white collar jobs. GE is going to cut their budget by 500 million. Christmas is just around the corner and Santa is at a hock shop pawning his sleigh. Talk about putting an "X" in Xmas!

Then on one of the back pages was a list of the top Mutual Funds. Notice the figures are as of 9/30/2008. The last 24 days didn’t do much for this years returns. (Double click on picture for a more irritating image)


Some stock analyst on one of the networks stated that there was 6 trillion dollars on the sideline waiting to get into the market. In order for that money to be absorbed by the market, they have to overpay for the stocks purchased by 6 trillion. Every stock has an owner even if money is on the sideline waiting to buy.

Denninger called for a collapse last Friday and it looked like a sure thing. The surprise was the massive buy programs that kicked in after the market dropped about 550. This had to be a coordinated group effort. Ben and Hank have been awful quiet the last 4 days, they probably had a hand in Friday’s outcome. I would bet that most of the hedge funds have redemptions of at least 50% to unwind in the next 65 days. Look for the Hedgies and Mutual Funds to sell into any rally with a vengeance to raise cash.

Examine the age of those commentators on the business news channels; there hasn’t been a bear market in 33 years. These people haven’t been alive long enough to experience one.

World markets are dropping. There is no "up" from here, only how far down are we going. Of course if you listen to "Damage Control," now is the time to buy. I foresee the Dow at 6,000 or less by November 5.

Copyright 2008 All rights reserved

65 comments:

Zeke said...

The question in mind is: Where does the US borrow 2-3 billion a day when China, OPEC, etc don't have it to lend?

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Zeke

It's a little like the psychologist asking a patient "What would you do if a military tank came rolling towards you.?

The patient replies "I'd hop in my BMW and drive away."

The doctor asks "Where did you get the BMW?"

The patient replies "The same place you got the tank!"

Just how "real" is this new money that is being spent???---we are about to find out.

dearieme said...

November the Fifth? That's Guy Fawkes night here in Britain, when we have bonfires and fireworks. Hurray!!

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Dearieme

I spent two years in England as a kid. Those bonfires are a fond memory. You could see more fires in the distance than you could count. Have fun.

watchtower said...

Jim, I thought things were slowing down around here where I live a few weeks ago but last night my wife and I were back to waiting in line to eat at a fine restaurant (it was her birthday).
I'm just curious, when do you think people will start to "feel" this?
I thought with the market losing 40% like it has that people would be holed up at home like groundhogs but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Watchtower

There was a Bloomberg segment on the restaurant trade a month ago.

It seems that the high spenders are gone (business meals). They mentioned that customer count was down, tipping was a lot less and the total bill was down considerably.

Restaurants are cutting back on staff, portion sizes. Customers are cutting back on ordering appetizers, wine, and picking a less expensive meal.

Plus out here in California, nobody knows how to cook. I still have to wait in line for a 5 dollar pizza--the price is right!

Anonymous said...

Nothing the govmt can do to slow down the market crash, corporate earnings falling, unemployment rising and home prices falling. It's too late. And you can't cure the illness of excess, corruption, spending and borrowing with MORE SPENDING AND BORROWING!!
All of these FED/Treas Dept rescue strategies and tactics. Pish tosh!
What about the guy who works hard and pays his mortgage? What about the guy who saved and continues to save? The family that spent less than it earned? What about the business man who built up reserves and continues to do so? What about the guy that pays his credit card debts and his auto loans? Why are the moral, responsible, hard workers being treated like crap and the irresponsible and corrupt losers being rewarded? Capitalism is supposed to reward you for your prudent actions and punish you for your irresponsible actions? This activity is sending the moral fiber of this nation down the toilet.

Anonymous said...

Thank you Anon 6:18,

I couldn't have said it better myself.

San Diego Lasik doctor said...

The govt. should stay out of the housing market.

I just read a great post on a realistic housing cure WITHOUT taxpayer money. the link is:
http://www.brokerforyou.com/brokerforyou/?p=479
The title is: #1 EZ Fix to The U.S. Housing Market published 10-1-08

frakrak said...

Jim a few things! Recently I have heard (public broadcasting Australia) reports that governments may have as an option to make the private ownership of gold illegal. Have you any information on this? Also one commentator mentioned the re-issue of currency making existing legal tender valueless (in the case of hyper-inflation).

The comments were made as an historical perspective for last century’s catastrophic economic failures! My memory seems to bring Germany to mind in the mid 1930’s (currency re-issue)? And I am fairly sure in Australia it has only been in the past two or three decades the law had changed to allow the private ownership of gold bullion.

It maybe important to keep in mind that the regulators may not have a re-worked solution from past economic collapses as a current fix! There seems to be a probability of a “left field solution” because of a vastly changed global environment!

my regards …..

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Frakrak

I have pointed this out several times in the past (I know that not everyone has read all that I have written) so it is an important point to repeat.

FDR made gold ownership illegal in the 1930's. It only became legal for Americans to own gold in 1975.

Look at my post from the past. The last quote refers to tagging safety deposit boxes. If you had gold, they paid you cash and confiscated it.

The government can't print gold. There is a pretty good reason to keep people from stuffing their mattress with gold. Without gold to buy, people are forced to trust the printed dollar.

When silver rose above a dollar in price, all of our silver coin was being melted down and sold at a profit. Ask yourself one question "Was silver more expensive or was our dollar worth less?"

It is very possible that the government will again outlaw gold ownership.

Keeping it in a bank may not be the best option.

Tyrone said...

Yes, Anon at 6:18:00 PM said it very well.

On the subject of Safety Deposit boxes, this video is not completely germaine to the discussion, but here are some stories of boxes being opened and contents sold...
Safety Deposit Boxes Confiscated
It makes me distrust banks more than I already do.

Toby said...

Jim:

Why is it that you predict a meltdown and depression and we are not seeing any signs of this? The stock market is not crashing and there are no signs that we are entering into a depression.

Toby

frakrak said...

Jim/Tyrone, thank you for your links I will busy myself today and do some research. By the way I have neither gold nor cash that would cause me any concern with this!

Interestingly Jim your prediction on countries that cannot sustain a strong currency will be eaten alive (not a direct quote). This may be happening here in Australia. In just a few weeks we have seen our currency devalued by about 30%, where the greenback and the yen have firmed.

The country has NO government (fed) debt, but our local councils have debt, mostly from some of the bigger banking institutions in America. Commentators are saying that this will bankrupt many across the nation.
regards ..

I'm Not POTUS said...

Toby,

Are you locked in Chaneys secret underground bunker?

I know you don't work for the BSW architecture firm.

BSW, which provided architectural services for large commercial brands such as Wal-Mart, Office Depot, Motel 6, Applebee's and Red Robin, ceased active operations after businesses pulled back expansion plans due to the slumping economy. (dateline AUGUST 26, 2008)

They used to churn out a complete Wal-Mart plan in 3 days!!!!! These guys are the starting point for the entire spend spend spend economy. Now they are gone.

Wal-mart announced today they will cut back by 1/3 the expansion budget, from 9 billion to less than 6 billion. The US per capita retail space is over 20 sq.ft. per person. Europe is only 2 sq. ft. per person average. Do the math. How many jobs vanish as we shrink that 20 down.

Toby said...

Yes but where is the crash/depression. I agree, we are going to have a nasty recession. But we will not have a depression and an outright market crash. All of the naysayers have proved wrong thus far.

Shankar said...

Jim,

Are you suggesting that keeping Gold with you in your own home makes it safer from the Government? Government can always make a law making it illegal to own, in which case you will have to return it to the Government, won't you?

You could hold it outside the US, but what if the Government makes it illegal to hold Gold/Silver by US residents anywhere? For that matter, holding any other assets such as foreign currencies, foreign bonds etc.?

In general, I think it would be hard for the US Government to make such a law now since most of the US Treasuries are held by foreigners now as opposed the situation in 1929.

Tyrone said...

Yes but where is the crash/depression.

Uhhh... am I missing something?

- DOW was 14000 last year, it's 8200 right now, on it's way to 6000
- Auto-makers are going bankrupt
- Unemployment is rising
- Several investment banks are gone, and others re-classified
- Housing still a mess; foreclosures still rising
- ARMs continue to reset for 2 years
- Many states in trouble (CA, bigtime trouble)
- Retail sales down
- Manufacturing base is sad
- Government is bailing out banks AND companies (including auto-makers)
- US debt is $10+ Trillion
- US deficit spending to continue
- Massive inflation is a possibility in the very near future

OK. All is well.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Toby

One of the main points of this blog encompasses the idea that people don't drive into a depression willingly. We talk about the Great Depression of 1929. There ceased to be an argument on it being a depression, in 1933.

As for the fact that there has been no crash, this isn't a newspaper telling you what happened yesterday. These are predictions involving the future.

Our present views about what is happening depends on what we expect to see. We are both looking at the same situation and seeing it differently. It's a little like buying a new car. Suddenly you notice a lot of them on the road. Nothing changed, you just became more aware of one part of your surroundings.

All of us can be right, given time. We just can't all be right, at the same moment in time. Today is your day. Mine is a few days down the road.

Anonymous said...

hey jim, that five dollar pizza is losing the crust big time. its totally flat last year at least the crust was fluffy (little ceazers)

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Shankar

If the government made it illegal to own gold, you wouldn't want to exchange it for a devaluing currency.

The goal of such a law is to keep people from converting dollars to gold on a large scale. This is normally not a problem if there is faith in the currency. Financial survival dictates that you ignore government laws on owning gold.

I wouldn't recommend holding gold in your home, the bank is the best place. But you have to be aware that you may have to take steps to keep possession of your gold for a short term of time.

The thing that makes this option believable, is that in 1929 the dollar was backed by gold. So a bank loaning money didn't really have inflation to worry about. You can't say that today. I can't even fathom what price the price of gold would have to be if it was used to back the dollar.

This whole scenario could be out in left field, but I only brought it up because of what the government is now doing. I couldn't have even imagined a trillion dollar bailout.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Anon 8:38

You're suppose to eat the box! The pizza is used to absorb the cardboard flavor.

Seriously I can't knock their Pizza (on a California rating). But a good New York pizza that's something else. The first bite bonds to the roof of your mouth with second degree burns with all the different cheeses they put on it. That was good pizza.

Looks like Lil Caesar's could win the pizza war out here. They talk my language "Price."

Toby said...

Jim:

It looks like the market is set to rally today. I still do not see where we go to 6000 this week. Does there come a point where you have to call the dogs off?

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Toby

The Hedgies have to sell into the rallies. Today could end strangely.

What are you buying? I'm looking for something to short.

Toby said...

Jim:

Market is up 5%, so again, how do we get to 6000 this week?

Toby

Poly said...

Hi Jim,

Love your blog, keep up the great work.

Could you layout some specific strategies for safely getting through a 30's type deflationary period? You have mentioned paying down debt and staying in cash, but that doesn't jive to well with your predictions on the future of America's fiat currency.

Feel free to get very specific, it would be appreciated :)

Thanks for a great blog, shame I only stumbled upon it recently (via Calculated Risk)

Poly said...

Sorry that should be 30's type "despression"

Toby said...

Jim:

Market up 900 points. Where, when and how does it drop 3000 points in 3 days?

Toby

I'm Not POTUS said...

Toby,

You can't call the market with any accuracy when they change the rules day to day hour to hour.
The US Fed is now using your future taxes to fund South Korean Banks. You happy about that, I'm not.

They change the rules to beat back the end result. They can push it back but they can't change the end results.
I don't care how far a bear market rally goes up. They have not fixed the problems. I don't know when my shorts will pay off until they do. I only know the end result.

You can wait forever for the sky to fall, I am waiting to walk out of the rubble afterward.

A pessimist is an optimist with work experience.

Full faith and credit are the only two things giving value to the dollar. How much of each do you have in your government?

Toby said...

Not POTUS:

Sorry to hear that you are a pessimist. I agree that the problems are not being solved, but in this case, the market needs to work this out itself. We will not, mark this post, have a depression and the stock market likely won't go to 6000. If I were you, I would get out of those short positions, because the market will maybe go to 7000 and bottom out, perhaps not even that low. The economy will see growth in the second half of 2009 and all of the doom and gloomers will be proven wrong....AGAIN.

Dan Mac said...

Jim,

After reading your blog regularly, I picked up on The Market Ticker Forum (Denninger) per your occasional references. I think he is very insightful and assume you do too.

Today I noticed that Karl seemed irritated by one of his followers who was talking about gold as a safe haven and an inflation hedge. Karl apparently has refuted the notion that gold/precious metals do any good except for protection against geopolitical unrest (if I understood him correctly). He seems to conclude that there is really nowhere to hide other than picking the best currency you can find and hoping it fares better than everything else; but that everything is destined to head south. I am curious about your take on this. I know that you have advocated gold here and in other posts (not that it matters since it is impossible to find anywhere).

Keep up the good work! Your efforts are appreciated.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Dan Mac

I don't look at gold and silver as an investment, rather a store of value. If you own a home, you have a store of value that protects you from inflation. Figure that a house is probably the equivalent of 175 oz of gold.

If you diversify your investment portfolio, 10% in gold is not a large amount. I also have 10% of my funds invested in extremely speculative items with the promise of very high returns.

If you understand that your house and gold are non interest paying assets, you will do OK. People argue the point that once they pay off the house, they live rent free. That's not the way to look at it. A home clear of payments worth 300k is the equivalent of 300K in the bank producing 15k in interest. The homeowners loss of the interest on the home's value is the net rent for the year.

I haven't been following Denninger on currencies of late. I tend to believe that almost every nation has printed way too much and they will all have to be revalued.

I'm not really touting gold and silver over currencies, I am just suggesting that you be well diversified. Have a long term plan and stick with it. At the present time being debt free and 20K of cash in the bank, could be advantageous. If times get real tough, cash will be king.

I'm glad you enjoy the column. Thank you for your comments.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Poly

Thank you for the compliment

What we are looking at is a two step process. This disaster we are traveling into should be extremely deflationary.

Then as the government prints money to pull us out of it, it should turn very inflationary.

In step one, you would want to acquire assets at bargain prices. In step two, you hold on to them because the currency will fall apart.

The trouble is, no one knows how long we will be in step one. If the government bails out everybody, we may be in step two by Christmas.

A good old fashion stock market collapse would probably give us two years of (step one) deflation (a hopeful guess on my part). From that point forward, the government won't be able to pay the interest on the national debt, it will be too large. There is where we would face step two.

If someone could stop this bailout, eliminate Medicaid and cut the hell out of Social Security, we could make it out of this mess and we all know that is highly unlikely.

The only real advice I can give you is to have spare cash reserves. Most marriages fail over money problems.

The biggest unknown here is what the government will do next. Hope this is of some help.

Thank you for your comments.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Toby

The Dow circut breaker is currently at 3350 points to close the market for a day. It could happen. Somebody thought it prudent to have set it.

I still have until the day after the election on this prediction.

I could be off by a week or two.

I am not one to go out and panic the public, but this drop will happen, and it will happen soon.

Anonymous said...

I'm betting that the Dow will hit 6K by election day and gas will be less than $2 per gallon. Todays rally will prove to be a suckers rally.

I've heard rumors that over the past week, the volatility has come from some unnamed hedge funds thrashing for survival. Could that be true?

John in Texas

Tyrone said...

Thoughts on gold and hedge funds.

Discussing gold and silver, I asked somebody if they had car insurance. Answer: Yes. I then asked if they expected to get a return on that money. Answer: No, except if there's a crash. EXACTLY! And you don't put all your money into that insurance.

Interesting article on hedge funds.
Parasites In "Sheer Panic" At London Hedge Fund Conference
The only solution is to shut the derivatives markets down completely, declaring all derivatives transactions null and void, and thereby eliminating all claims. The speculators reject this approach--when the solution is a flea dip, the fleas will never accept the solution--but we must clean up the mess these parasites have made, and that begins with shutting them down. They have failed, their system has failed, and it is past time to admit that, and let the adults take over. It is the only sane path.

Not sure why the above step is not taken. Sounds better than printing more money.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi John in Texas

The 900 point rally could be hedge funds betting the wrong way on the market. The Volume was not in the high range which raises quite a few eyebrows, for such a large jump.

T Boone Pickins fund has been dragged through the dust. It's down 60%.

Toby said...

Hi Jim:

I am long Altria Group FYI. Feel free to short it at your pleasure.

Toby

watchtower said...

@ Toby

You're quite the risk taker by going long cigs and beer.

I'm Not POTUS said...

@ watchtower

I'm even crazier than Toby. I am long the Jersey mob that will traffic in black market cigs and booze. Because the state governments are going to tax the ever living shite out of the low hanging fruits of revenue. They won't get blood out of the property tax turnip but sin taxes will be gushing with blood money from freaked out addicts.

Shankar said...

Jim:

Thanks.

Do you think US can make a law that would prevent US residents from owning any foreign assets - outside US?

What would be the probability of a new currency being introduced? Amero? (Google it please.)

BTW, Swiss Franc is 40% backed by Gold. Just thought I would let you know.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Shankar

I don't think that there is any practicality in limiting foreign investment by Americans.

As for the Amero, it can't work with our present system. In order to be a lender of last resort, you need to be able to print money. A currency divorced from political control like the proposed Amero or the real Euro cannot be a lender of last resort. Political individual governments are not able to print currency (inflation) under that sort of setup.

I would love to see our Congress limited to a balance budget by the concept of an "Amero."

On our present course of action, we will probably end up with an American "Peso-dollar" in the end.

Thanks for the imput on the Swiss gold backing, I need to do some more reading on that.

Toby said...

Jim:

You may need to revise your predictions because the Dow is not going to 6000. The doomsday angle won't happen. GDP was better than expected. Time to throw in the towel and admit you were wrong.

Ben G said...

Toby, are you calling that we have hit the bottom of the market?

Toby said...

8000 is the bottom. Down 40%+. That is a huge drop. The economy will turn by Q3 or Q4. Jim will look bad and risks losing is reading audience when he is proved wrong.

Anonymous said...

Toby,

you must be new to this blog, Jim has been wrong for years.
He thinks just bc d mkt fell recently, we are automatically in a depression, apprently the 1930's depression he likes to talk about a lot is not something he knows well.

doom and gloomers are usually so negative that even when the market falls, their shorts, usually their put options are so far out of the moeny that they never go in the moeny so that they can make money.
just like Jim's dow 6000 call, he is such a perma-bear, that he thinks a fall of 4-5000 points is not enough, he talks about dow 3500 or dow 2000 regularly.
that's real rational based on current situation, not!, people lik ehim on the fringes o fthe market never make moeny in their investments, even when they get the direction of the market right.

jim also mad about Obama winning the election, so his thinking is a bit more depressed than usual.

longtime reader

Toby said...

I guess we haven't seen any posting from the doom and gloomers after getting owned today.

Anonymous said...

toby,
A fool and his money are soon parted. In other words, you will soon be parted from your money. Do yourself a favor and go read the rosy news over at Calculated Risk.

kevin said...

@Toby+other guy,

11:00PM EST 10/30/08:
Hang Seng 13,747.01 -582.84 -4.07

What is true one day in this mess may not hold very long.

I'm not saying DOW 6000 on Friday, but please explain how we get out of this by Q3 next year?

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Toby

It's nice to have a thread going that everyone has enough time to read without having to quit their job--there isn't 300 posts to sort through.

I really don't see anything in the economy that says we are at a bottom. Things are getting worse geometrically at a very fast rate.

The last recession we had took about 6 years to end. We have shot through the bottom indicators of the last one in 10 months.

Wednesdays drop of 325 points six minutes before the close gives you an idea of what can happen.

If you are using the DJIA stock market as an indicator of current economic conditions, I don't think there is much of a correlation factor.

Next Wednesday is the big day for the Dow. Faites vos jeux, Mesdames et Messieurs.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Longtime Reader

How much of what I have written, have you read? Why not go back and re read everything and show me what I have been wrong about. I am batting 100 percent if you have read the blog. The only thing in question right now is my present prediction. I have until next Wednesday. Cut me some slack.

As for not knowing much about the 1930's depression, I have read probably every book ever printed on it and then some. Excluding the new 800 page one just written.

Anonymous said...

Lots of bickering and assertiveness going on here. Anyone who understands basic economics, fiat currency, inflation, the role of The Fed and central banks in other countries, the historicals on countries that have debased their currencies, human behaviour (namely the greed and corruption that has built up over the last 20 years to this economic tsunami, geopolitics, etc. should understand without a doubt that we are in for a major collapse of the US dollar and economy. The dollar's purchasing power is dying fast and is in total jeopardy. The only thing that should be debated is when... 6 months? 1 year? 2 years? 5?

Toby said...

Jim:

Dow up another ~200 points. Still no sign of a collapse. Looks like your prediction for this week has fallen flat. Do everyone else a favor and quit the scare tactics. Things are challenging now, but a collapse of the system is not imminent.

Kevin said...

@Toby

cut the guy some slack:

"World markets are dropping. There is no "up" from here, only how far down are we going. Of course if you listen to "Damage Control," now is the time to buy. I foresee the Dow at 6,000 or less by November 5"

I'm Not POTUS said...

Toby,

I am not the least pessimistic about my future. I fully expect to advance the well being of my family as we press on into the unknown. I have ZERO debt and I sleep through the night.

BTW: You still haven't answered my missive.

Full faith and credit are the only two things giving value to the dollar. How much of each do you have (to give to) your government?

Maybe we won't freak out if your answer will cheer us up.

Shankar said...

Jim:

I have seen forecasts for a major low between now and Nov. 15/17 for Dow Jones below 7,000.

Just wondering what you are basing your forecast on? Just Election Day on November 4 or something else?

Thanks.

Crashproofed said...

Jim,

As you've touted for years ....Pension funds are blowing up.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

S

Anonymous said...

sub 7000 by november 5th eh?

So over 3000 points of in 3 trading days?

That's extreme even by recent standards. Don't bet on it. (but if you insist we get to enjoy an even better short squeeze)

Toby said...

Anon:

These guys don't have a clue. That is the truth. You follow them and you ARE going to lose money. Jim is way off on this. This is no crash coming. Of course there will be gnashing of teeth when Jim's short positions get squeezed. I suspect that is why we are seeing less posting from Jim and less blogging. Probably prudent to quite while he's not too far behind.

Sackerson said...

Hi Jim

It ain't happened yet, but I think you've explained why: the smart money is quietly selling to the hopeful amateurs. When the latter look round and see what's happened (and watch the stretch limos drive off), that's when we get the next downward leg of the Elliot Wave - don't you think?

Toby said...

Sackerson:

You really sound confident there. I hope you are shorting left right and center. It will make watching you shorts get squeezed all the sweeter.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Sack

The game is pretty much over. I am paying attention to the open on Japan Monday. Plus the Euro is stressed to the Max.

You're right the smart money has left, that is what the feds 700 billion cash injection is suppose to fix/replace.

I agree it is straight down from here. The election will not save us.

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Toby

Below each remark is a trashcan symbol which you can't see. I can delete anything.

I have only deleted 5 remarks since this Blog started 3 of them were several thousand words, one was a cut and paste from Denninger and another was just an rambling insult that was a waste of time to respond to.

You have established an identity which means that you aren't really anonymous, I respect that and somewhat enjoy your taunts. They don't bother me. Everyone is entitled to express their opinion.

Don't taunt the other commenter's. You can have your say and make your points.

As for postings, I don't post unless I have something that passes my standards. I don't post just to talk. I work a regular job and do this in my spare time. I don't get paid for this. I wrote three articles today and only posted one.

I treat every poster as I would wish to be treated, I request that you do the same to me and everyone else that is posting to this blog.

Thank you for your comments

Toby said...

I'm Not POTUS said...

Toby,

Are you locked in Chaneys secret underground bunker?

I know you don't work for the BSW architecture firm.

BSW, which provided architectural services for large commercial brands such as Wal-Mart, Office Depot, Motel 6, Applebee's and Red Robin, ceased active operations after businesses pulled back expansion plans due to the slumping economy. (dateline AUGUST 26, 2008)

They used to churn out a complete Wal-Mart plan in 3 days!!!!! These guys are the starting point for the entire spend spend spend economy. Now they are gone.

Wal-mart announced today they will cut back by 1/3 the expansion budget, from 9 billion to less than 6 billion. The US per capita retail space is over 20 sq.ft. per person. Europe is only 2 sq. ft. per person average. Do the math. How many jobs vanish as we shrink that 20 down.

watchtower said...
@ Toby

You're quite the risk taker by going long cigs and beer.

Anonymous said...

toby,
A fool and his money are soon parted. In other words, you will soon be parted from your money. Do yourself a favor and go read the rosy news over at Calculated Risk.

Jim, how about keeping it fair and balanced? You claim I am "taunting" posters, but I don't see you calling them on the same thing. Or is it that you only silence dissent?

Jim in San Marcos said...

Hi Tolby

I am just trying to point out to you that things can get out of hand.

If you were to post a comment to a Klu Klux Klan site and suggest that they be more racially tolerant you are going to get blasted.

Your views on this site are tolerated but they don't follow the flow of thought for most of the viewers.

I write this column for fun and I don't like to entertain the idea of a flame war or cranking readers the wrong way over something that shouldn't have been said.

I personally don't think that you are getting any useful information from this blog and I am rather confused as to why you keep returning.

The other people viewing this blog like what I write and are willing to defend me. Don't fault them for that.

New ideas come from interaction with other minds. Keep an open mind.

Thank you for your comments