tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post8145857577150106546..comments2024-02-29T03:21:35.007-08:00Comments on The Great Depression of 2006 : St Joseph the House SaintJim in San Marcoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-41234571248091155652007-07-30T21:33:00.000-07:002007-07-30T21:33:00.000-07:00what would your advise to sellers be? to buyers? ...what would your advise to sellers be? to buyers? <BR/>TracyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-54833422286703266932007-07-24T13:53:00.000-07:002007-07-24T13:53:00.000-07:00Sellers don't want to blink?. Some have already ca...Sellers don't want to blink?. Some have already cashed out equity. If they sold lower they would have to pawn the shirts on their backs to pay the banker. But for how long can they keep writing that check every 30 days?...something has to give...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-4192403321304769242007-07-24T12:47:00.000-07:002007-07-24T12:47:00.000-07:00I love the bic lighter metaphor!I love the bic lighter metaphor!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-73643683986787983042007-07-24T10:30:00.000-07:002007-07-24T10:30:00.000-07:00I live in the east bay / Castro Valley and the ef...I live in the east bay / Castro Valley and the effects of low housing demand are obvious without having to study too hard. It seems the cute little two bedroom homes will no longer sell. These are nice little homes -- but for over 500k asking price. There are numerous vacant homes which is unusual but here is something even more interesting. One house was on the market for 6 months offered at 550k, taken off the market --no takers-- and then offered as a rental for 1595.00/month. In less than a week, it is rented. THAT says alot about the market. I saw the other comment about pricing based on 2000 levels which would make sense if the 2000 prices were not out of whack already.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-56884480167472696322007-07-24T07:41:00.000-07:002007-07-24T07:41:00.000-07:00"Crash2Deflation2Depression" By 2010-2015=(vs.top)..."Crash2Deflation2Depression" <BR/>By 2010-2015=(vs.top)<BR/>50-70% off Homes<BR/>60-80% off condo+townhouse <BR/>80-95% off land,lots,acres<BR/>30-70% off commercial(all)<BR/>Experience=3ups+3downs since <BR/>Age 17!(thanks dad)<BR/>1160% Avg.Gross profits10+yrs<BR/>2 year Avg. hold last 10+ yrs<BR/>196 Repo deals last 10 years<BR/>66 countries Visited+Analized<BR/>Read 100+ business books/year+<BR/>20,000+pages/yr=law & finance<BR/>Warren Buffett: Be fearful <BR/>when others are greedy & be <BR/>greedy when others are fearful!<BR/>BBA Finance & Real Estate, Hawaii <BR/>Ccim Cria Cam Ems Gri xParalegal-Ca<BR/>xTaxLic-Ca xRealtor-CaHi xInsAgt-CaHirepo4salehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13134394832864486954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-42742929569646644622007-07-24T06:23:00.000-07:002007-07-24T06:23:00.000-07:00Everyone keeps talking about reversion to the mean...Everyone keeps talking about reversion to the mean in housing prices. This means we take away the large gains we have had in prices and return to where prices would be if we had normal gains. Bob Shiller even talks about this and says we could have a 50% correction.<BR/><BR/>My problem is reversion to the mean is logical if prices went up just for the demand factors, such as buyer psychology, low interest rate, easy credit, agressive realtors, mortgage brokers and appraisers.<BR/><BR/>No one is talking about the supply problems we created with all the excess building and now all the vacant homes. This is in addition to reversion to the mean.<BR/><BR/>This could be uglyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-51141071605897480432007-07-24T05:11:00.000-07:002007-07-24T05:11:00.000-07:00Kick the prices back to 2000 levels. Then add appr...Kick the prices back to 2000 levels. Then add approxiamtely 35% to that price(normal appreciation for 7 years) and you have a bottom. <BR/>Since it wil take several years to fall completely, add 3-4% a year to that in 2008, 2009, etc/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-61046002598401941952007-07-23T20:16:00.000-07:002007-07-23T20:16:00.000-07:00Hi PacoI quite agree. The thing that bothers me, i...Hi Paco<BR/><BR/>I quite agree. The thing that bothers me, is that there is no bottom in sight for this mess. <BR/><BR/>You know you have hit bottom in a market when you can't give them away and no one is interested. <BR/><BR/>Well nobody is interested, but they are not giving them away either. So we are not there yet.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your commentJim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-48794022907164067682007-07-22T22:47:00.000-07:002007-07-22T22:47:00.000-07:00Up here in Ventura county (Moorpark) the houses I...Up here in Ventura county (Moorpark) the houses I pass every day that are for sale have been so for quite some time. <BR/><BR/>I did a quick search on MLS and find that they are all asking prices that I would have expected to see a year or more ago- which are not reflecting today's market reality. <BR/><BR/>Thus the long time on market.<BR/><BR/>Two are right next door to one another and happen to be directly across from us. One is long time owned and paid off, vacant, the couple retired and are seemningly in no hurry to sell or rent it.<BR/><BR/>The other was a recent purchase (2005) and it was rented, but is no longer, and has been on the market for about six months. <BR/><BR/>I also saw the return of multiple "Open House" signs today along the main road- more than has been usual lately (I noticed 'cos I had been missing them after the last few years of Realty-a-go-go). <BR/><BR/>I imagined Realtors(tm) have banded together and with a burst of nothing but naked optimism and enthusiasm are gonna get some houses sold, by hook or crook.<BR/><BR/>Yet nobody wants to be the first to drop their price.<BR/><BR/>Oh yeah another blog had a <A HREF="http://sacramento.craigslist.org/rfs/378336681.html" REL="nofollow">link to this up north</A> which is kind of reflecting a sawtooth profile that while some shady practices might have slowed, they certainly haven't stopped (late bloomers?). <BR/><BR/>That this can <B>still</B> happen in Sac. (Casey land) has me agog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com