tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post7226122011986548835..comments2024-02-29T03:21:35.007-08:00Comments on The Great Depression of 2006 : Parallels from 1929Jim in San Marcoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-45074494001664553102008-11-03T10:55:00.000-08:002008-11-03T10:55:00.000-08:00Hi KristinaI think that some of the best surveys a...Hi Kristina<BR/><BR/>I think that some of the best surveys are those where people use money to vote ie Cars, homes vacations, stock purchases.<BR/><BR/>Too many people have an ulterior motive for surveys--like the elections.<BR/><BR/>Plus if you have every gotten you name on a survey list, the phone never stops ringing. If you do answer the surveys, make sure to open your junk mail, sometimes they mail you a couple of dollars back. So there is a good side to some of it.<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your commnetsJim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-74515859285105086952008-11-02T20:26:00.000-08:002008-11-02T20:26:00.000-08:00This seems to be a very interesting finding, Jim. ...This seems to be a very interesting finding, Jim. This should give us more reasons to choose the right one to lead us out of this crisis. <BR/>BTW, I found this survey about the current economic downturn and I think it’s helpful to get involved.<BR/>http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?key=p-XlwgJysoV-gV-D6-1d_XQ<BR/>Thanks!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-35049631488020521032008-11-02T19:21:00.000-08:002008-11-02T19:21:00.000-08:00Hi FrakrakI think that October is just a coinciden...Hi Frakrak<BR/><BR/>I think that October is just a coincidence for 1907, 1929 and 1987. There was a mini crash in June of 1928 that wiped out a lot of investors that is never mentioned much.<BR/><BR/>My wife and I both have 401K's and have left them alone. It's part of being diversified. Mine is 100 percent in short term bond and it is chugging along making 3%. The redemption charges make it prohibitive to cash out in a lump sum.<BR/><BR/>Its easier to play the superannuation game from the bond market rather than the stock market. If memory serves me right, the bond market is about 5 times the size of the stock market. Retirement funds will regularly lock in a 30 year bond at 5% for current payouts. Funds not being called for redemption can be more aggressively invested as you suggest in the stock market.<BR/><BR/>After the crash in 1929, the investment trusts collapsed because they couldn't meet redemptions. Those two funds I mentioned started by Goldman Sachs held 250 million dollars. They were both wiped out. The equivalent in cash today would be 250 billion.<BR/><BR/>The current place to look for trouble is in the 10,000 mutual funds world wide. I would hazard a guess that half are insolvent. There is no real government regulation. No problem is even apparent as long more money is flowing in than is going out. Its quite legal to start a fund and pay yourself a ridiculous salary and run the fund dry.<BR/><BR/>I think that the biggest factor at play here is the <A HREF="http://greatdepression2006.blogspot.com/2006/05/surfing-kondratieff-wave.html" REL="nofollow">Kondrattif </A>wave theory. <BR/><BR/>The next week or two will have some excitement, I'm sure.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-83584298830307187522008-11-02T19:05:00.000-08:002008-11-02T19:05:00.000-08:00Jim, your prediction of Dow 6000 will probably hap...Jim, your prediction of Dow 6000 will probably happen due to an unexpected cause this week; Chrysler. I bet when they announce their bankruptcy (perhaps Tuesday so it is mitigated by the election news cycle?), that'll send the market into a dive. Mr. Nardelli tanks yet another American icon; he's like a professional corporation destroyer.<BR/><BR/>John in TexasAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-29582483652100390292008-11-02T17:29:00.000-08:002008-11-02T17:29:00.000-08:00It seems to be factual that all major stock market...It seems to be factual that all major stock market corrections emanate from the month of October. Is this correct? And do you have any insight into this phenomenon? Jim I have searched your blog before making this comment, can't seem to find anything on this!<BR/><BR/>I would agree that the situation seems to be different now. The world has had two or three decades of prosperity with minor recessions. The collective consciousness may not be able to consider a point where the stock market will not rebound. I noticed in recent previous posts that hope is still maintaining optimism.<BR/><BR/>Work colleagues (nearly at retirement) are still not selling share portfolios, in the hope ...<BR/><BR/>A large portion of the investment into the stock market, are of managed accounts from superannuation, unlike the 29 debacle. I am fairly sure 5% plus, of all income in this country get more or less diverted to the S/M. <BR/><BR/>Most investors are by proxy, and may fuel the current ignorance? It may dampen the knee jerk reaction some what, or the inevitable spiral? Clearly there are subtle differences in how investing has happened this time 'round.<BR/><BR/>Look forward to any comment ...frakrakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10110027067402980842noreply@blogger.com