tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post1681225509981211880..comments2024-02-29T03:21:35.007-08:00Comments on The Great Depression of 2006 : The Economy Is Improving?Jim in San Marcoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-15870638055340277272013-06-17T18:08:37.204-07:002013-06-17T18:08:37.204-07:00The sheeple were those scared of great stocks afte...The sheeple were those scared of great stocks after the crash. Silver has crashed 60%. Tell Buffet he's one of the sheeple.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-26865719021519889912013-06-17T08:50:29.098-07:002013-06-17T08:50:29.098-07:00They (The Fed, the govmt, brokerages and main-stre...They (The Fed, the govmt, brokerages and main-stream media) are piling all of the sheeple into the stock market. Any contrarian knows that this is a setup for a slaughter. More (or the remainder) of middle class wealth will transfer up to the top 5% of the wealthy. You can expect a major drop in the market within the year, maybe two. We are experiencing the biggest wealth transfer in the history of the USA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-33486019740342007452013-06-16T06:45:13.028-07:002013-06-16T06:45:13.028-07:00Jim, the crash created a once in a lifetime opport...Jim, the crash created a once in a lifetime opportunity to by real assets which return income/dividends and are raised each, stocks of great companies at bargain prices. Protection against inflation and deflation. Still some opportunities remain. Plus investing, not speculating.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-32947349454130349972013-06-15T22:35:06.964-07:002013-06-15T22:35:06.964-07:00Hi Joseph
I tend to agree with you. But with the ...Hi Joseph<br /><br />I tend to agree with you. But with the low interest rates being offered to savers by the banks, I'm starting to change my mind. Buying silver (10 ounces per month) may be a better deal for young people entering the work force.<br /><br />Of course that could change if the banks gave a better return on your savingsJim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-21094762710786162032013-06-15T05:59:13.686-07:002013-06-15T05:59:13.686-07:00There is always a role for gold. It is a money. As...There is always a role for gold. It is a money. As such, a practical insurance policy on a country's currency. Same with silver. In fact pre-1966 US silver coins can never lose all value, retain face value. So, certainly a modest amount is wise keeping, never intending to use/sell except for emergency and can be passed on after death with stepped-up value. But, buying/keeping more than modest amt is pure speculation, not investing.Speculation is OK,but should be recognized as such.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-88960706254199857212013-06-14T19:55:40.814-07:002013-06-14T19:55:40.814-07:00Precious metals might not prove out to be an advan...Precious metals might not prove out to be an advantage. The major indicators are showing deflation. The debt and deleveraging on a global level may defeat the central banks after all, no matter how much QE or printing they do.<br /><br />It could be cash that gives one the real advantage. Just like in the US depression of the 30's.<br /><br />A gold standard is not feasible as it would cause deflation. We are beyond backing money with commodities or value now. It will be electronic and backed by the word of a government (backed up by its military, natural resources and GDP). It's a new world.<br /><br />The only solution due to the non-prediction is to cover all one's bases: water, food, shelter as your basic wealth and then stocks, bonds and commodities as your secondary wealth. If deflation does win you'll wish you were in water, food and shelter and cash.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-6555895621330708332013-06-11T21:04:56.207-07:002013-06-11T21:04:56.207-07:00Hi Heavenly Prepper
I don't see any downside ...Hi Heavenly Prepper<br /><br />I don't see any downside in having 10% in precious metals. I did just that in 1985. Of course now its about 50% of my portfolio just from appreciation. Put in more realistic terms, it will still buy what it bought in 1985.<br /><br />If you're young and short on cash, purchasing a home might be a better way to start. You can live in the house.<br /><br />The thing not realized by most people for not so obvious reasons, is that there are two different mind sets on precious metals. There are the young who have never really experienced inflation and the old who have seen their savings ravaged by it.<br /><br />There are 40 billion ounces of silver, 5 billion ounces of gold and 186 million ounces of platinum in the world and 8 billion people.<br /><br />I tend to agree with you that the paper markets are driving precious metal prices right now, and that the real thing will win out. Paper money is like a photograph of your wife, it's not the real thing.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-37249715974494982722013-06-11T02:28:49.694-07:002013-06-11T02:28:49.694-07:00Jim, I agree it is hard to know how bad it could g...Jim, I agree it is hard to know how bad it could get and we tend to blow it out of proportion. But on the other hand, has there been another time in history where every single currency in existence was backed by nothing except a government promise and nothing of tangible value? The issue is we have no idea how bad a black swan event could be since there is no true safe haven outside of gold and silver and there is a limited amount of precious metals whereby if all investors ran to silver and gold assets it would be bought up in weeks. Stack before that becomes an issue is what I say! Diversify and cover your bases now. Why not have 10% of your allocation in physical precious metals? What is the downside?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17569939034356909158noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-75567200426816193072013-06-07T20:13:24.841-07:002013-06-07T20:13:24.841-07:00Hi AIM
Your last line reminds me of the cartoon a...Hi AIM<br /><br />Your last line reminds me of the cartoon about a doctor advising his patient that he has terminal cancer. The patient asks "How long do I have?" And the doctor says, "If you hurry, you have enough time to say good-by to your wife." <br /><br />I tend to believe that our imaginations will exaggerate our fears and give us a picture of what can probably never happen. <br /><br />Diversity should be the key. Expect the government to pass laws to keep you from taking advantage of what may be happening.<br /><br />Having enough food (that you enjoy eating) to last a month and enough savings to last 6 months would be ideal. It doens't say much for those living pay check to pay check.<br /><br />I'm a firm believer of gold and silver, but I am not cashing in my 401k or IRA to buy them.<br /><br />I must admit, the act of purchasing silver gives me the feeling that I am buying something of value that will not lose its value over time.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-8099643160353598622013-06-05T10:29:32.018-07:002013-06-05T10:29:32.018-07:00Right Jim. The two key questions are...
What is a...Right Jim. The two key questions are...<br /><br />What is actually the most optimal preparation to take to preserve as much of my wealth as possible?<br /><br />How long do I have to make these preparations before the chaos comes?AIMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-74186532916208712082013-06-05T04:25:51.682-07:002013-06-05T04:25:51.682-07:00Calpers only has 16% bonds, but prob have some fro...Calpers only has 16% bonds, but prob have some from past yrs at high rates. Heck, even I locked up CD rates before big drop.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-48054750025559531422013-06-04T21:39:00.040-07:002013-06-04T21:39:00.040-07:00Hi AIM
I can't figure it out either. Silver,...Hi AIM<br /><br />I can't figure it out either. Silver, gold and platinum seem to be the only alternatives.<br /><br />As you suggest "Alice in Wonderland" is where we are at. What should be reality isn't.<br /><br />Things will have to unwind--only the time line is a little vague.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-7370133553588491902013-06-04T21:05:17.371-07:002013-06-04T21:05:17.371-07:00Housing can't go up based on fundamentals unle...Housing can't go up based on fundamentals unless new jobs are coming on line and/or wages are rising. How can this be? (Ominous intervention and credit creation.)<br /><br />The Fed is on an inflationary push, the government is on a deflationary push. Go figure.<br /><br />Growth and/or cutting expenses is the only way to build strength. Neither is happening.<br /><br />We are in an Alice In Wonderland type of new world where the rules are whacky or there are no longer rules or principles. Maybe gravity will be the next thing to go.<br /><br />This country is a lunatic asylum.AIMnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-79385370561679158442013-06-04T19:55:45.106-07:002013-06-04T19:55:45.106-07:00Hi Joseph
The issue with CalPERs is the interest ...Hi Joseph<br /><br />The issue with CalPERs is the interest rate projected by them on the interest rate generated by their portfolio.<br /><br />Using the rule of 72, a current 3% interest rate means their dollars in the fund will double every 24 years. Using their stated rate of return on investment of 7.5% it takes about 9.6 years for the principle to double.<br /><br />When they were using the the 8.5% rate, they were 75% away from being fully funded for future claims.<br /><br />From my understanding, if CalPERs was to set their current return rate on investments to a more realistic 3.5%, California would have to kick in an additional 20 to 40 billion a year (depending on your source) to prevent exhaustion of the funds.<br /><br />Of course if everyone accepts the 7.5% value, then the legislature has more money to spend on other programs.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-67480101090798494192013-06-04T11:23:58.427-07:002013-06-04T11:23:58.427-07:00CALpers just exceeded pre-finan crash high of $260...CALpers just exceeded pre-finan crash high of $260B. Still 26% behind long term goal, but it's not the long term . So, obviously solidly on rebound, with tons of assets.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-43967647195822792512013-06-03T20:27:44.195-07:002013-06-03T20:27:44.195-07:00Hi Anon 6:25
I'm pretty much in agreement wit...Hi Anon 6:25<br /><br />I'm pretty much in agreement with you. I wouldn't call the legislature corrupt but I would accuse them of being incredibly stupid.<br /><br />I remember back to when the state was paying $3 a unit for natural gas under a long term contract. Somebody in the legislature pointed out that spot prices for NG was less than a dollar. The state decided to buy NG on the spot market after their contract expired. Needless to say, spot price for NG shot up to $8. There were all sorts of investigations into price gouging. I think that they are buying NG under long term contract again.<br /><br />The legislature in the past has caved into the voters demand for "I want it now." A lot of cities are seeing their retirement plans absorbing 100% of their total tax revenues. One more year of zero interest rates, and CalPERs could take legal action against the State of California to make them whole.<br /><br />IMHO this miraculous recovery from a deficit in California is an effort to sell bonds. The state is bankrupt. I could accept 5 to 10 billion dollar of additional income coming in, but 24 billion is a real fairy tale. CalPER's is going to want a slice of this, you can bet your bottom dollar on it.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-39533906417156627382013-06-03T19:47:35.469-07:002013-06-03T19:47:35.469-07:00Hi dearieme
Thank you for the link. Mish is alwa...Hi dearieme<br /><br />Thank you for the link. Mish is always a good read. -- it kind of makes you want to be a renter for the rest of your life.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-43331026004453177072013-06-03T18:25:59.894-07:002013-06-03T18:25:59.894-07:00California is a JOKE. By raising taxes and increas...California is a JOKE. By raising taxes and increasing regulation they are driving businesses out of the state. Those businesses are being welcomed by the smart states that have lowered or ended state income tax, reduced regulations, given incentives and basically made a more business friendly environment. California legislature and courts are corrupt, liberal democrats (the worst), welfare oriented, non-business friendly and destructive. California is circling the toilet. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-32729960451312560062013-06-03T13:34:57.208-07:002013-06-03T13:34:57.208-07:00Right on Joseph, glad there are others who underst...<br />Right on Joseph, glad there are others who understand the value of science and innovation. The college system in California is one of its crowning jewels, another being the great weather/geography. <br /><br />What many don't realize is that Qualcomm would be a country, if it were on its own, same with many other companies. Every time we get a "facebook, its like finding thousands of tons of gold in your backyard, but many old-time thinkers cant comprehend such new trends. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-63026763682543430162013-06-03T11:01:55.074-07:002013-06-03T11:01:55.074-07:00Governments have a remarkable ability to design fi...Governments have a remarkable ability to design financial features that can make things a good deal worse. Look at this post about housing in Sweden - it sounds a bit arcane, but I defy you not to guffaw.<br /><br />http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/reader-from-finland-chimes-in-on-sweden.htmldeariemenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-35231210743924731292013-06-03T06:42:26.316-07:002013-06-03T06:42:26.316-07:00Sure, some speculation has entered the stock marke...Sure, some speculation has entered the stock market, and a correction is overdue and healthy, but major corps have never been so well capitalized and PEs still reasonable. Gov't bad? It transformed SD with UCSD. made SD a world class wireless and biotech center. CA voters have kicked out obstructionists and is on a roll. SD mayor has an Ivy League PHd in the history of science.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.com