tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post7236430954155314750..comments2024-02-29T03:21:35.007-08:00Comments on The Great Depression of 2006 : We're Broke (It's a Secret)Jim in San Marcoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comBlogger95125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-1606972912695270592009-02-05T21:22:00.000-08:002009-02-05T21:22:00.000-08:00Hi Inquiring MindYou are right we focused our reso...Hi Inquiring Mind<BR/><BR/>You are right we focused our resources on producing homes and cars to an unreasonable level and now we will have to pay for it.<BR/><BR/>Most people think that famines in third world countries are a function of droughts. In some cases, it is the misallocation of resources. You raise too many cattle to the point that you cannot afford to feed them. Then the pyramid collapses. <BR/><BR/>Six months from now we might all agree that this is a depression. Hope I am wrong.<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your comments.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-73885694779959836612009-02-05T21:08:00.001-08:002009-02-05T21:08:00.001-08:00Hi Anon 7:29Thank you, I too believe that we have ...Hi Anon 7:29<BR/><BR/>Thank you, I too believe that we have arrived. It is not a happy moment for me to predict this mess, but at least we have our ducks in a row, ready for whatever comes next.<BR/><BR/>Take careJim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-79848955389171218422009-02-05T19:29:00.000-08:002009-02-05T19:29:00.000-08:00Jim,I am bestowing you with the Nostradamus Award....Jim,<BR/><BR/>I am bestowing you with the Nostradamus Award. You predicted a depression and your time target was right (2006, or a couple three years later).<BR/><BR/>People thought you were a silly gloom and doomer a few years back. Well, they'll have to eat crow now.<BR/><BR/>Well, Jim... we've arrived.<BR/><BR/>We are in a depression.<BR/><BR/>P.S. Obama and his crew will inform us of this in about another year (these experts and government boys have always been a little slow).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-22443405260109545742009-02-05T19:21:00.000-08:002009-02-05T19:21:00.000-08:00A recession is the result of a bit of overcapacity...A recession is the result of a bit of overcapacity... nothing structural. It has to do with the flows in the economy. Inventory has to be cleared off the shelves, belts have to be tightened, business streamlined, some layoffs, etc. Then things soon pick up and a growth cycle resumes.<BR/><BR/>What we have here is STRUCTURAL. What we have here is CREATIVE DESTRUCTION doing its job. These aren't flow problems, these are structural problems. Trillions of dollars of asset values are going away; millions of jobs are going away; business/service is too big... demand has dwindled off and won't be coming back soon. Wall Street is gone (the investment banks are gone). The banking industry is gone. So is the auto industry and airlines. The US consumer-economy model is not functioning and has collapsed. It will take many years to retrain, retool, absorb all the resources, and get things working again and everyone able to work for a salary within businesses that actually profit. It took 20 years to restructure after the Great Depression. Would've taken longer if it wasn't for WWII.<BR/><BR/>The while the government is busy spending trillions trying to revive a corpse, they are standing in the way of change.<BR/><BR/>No people, this isn't a recession. This is structural. This is a...<BR/>DEPRESSION.<BR/><BR/>An Inquiring MindAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-19243099606608815162009-02-05T19:19:00.000-08:002009-02-05T19:19:00.000-08:00" Render unto Ceasar that which is Ceasar'sRender ..." Render unto Ceasar that which is Ceasar's<BR/>Render unto God that which is God's "<BR/> Jesus<BR/><BR/>We do not have to nor are we under a moral obligation to resist the state unless they directly ask us to do something immoral -defined as God's moral law i.e. Judeo Christian ethics/morality... taxes etc don't count... in fact we are to obey the authorities over us so that God will bless us...<BR/><BR/>just another view... :) Catholic girlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-70873321723273874672009-02-05T12:47:00.000-08:002009-02-05T12:47:00.000-08:00Yes, that is true.What do we care about Wall St.? ...Yes, that is true.<BR/><BR/>What do we care about Wall St.? <BR/><BR/>Let them go under.<BR/><BR/>Main St. doesn't need Wall St.<BR/><BR/>They are robbing us blind.<BR/><BR/>Maybe this unprecedented rip off and squeezing of the average little guy will get bad enough so that we really will have a sort of revolution in this country.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-81782336746410974202009-02-05T12:43:00.000-08:002009-02-05T12:43:00.000-08:00Think that 2008 was bad? You haven't seen anything...Think that 2008 was bad? You haven't seen anything yet. 2009 will be worse... a LOT worse.<BR/><BR/>Housing will continue to drop for years. (Foreclosures will not be significantly stemmed by government. Alt-A, prime and jumbos are going down next.) <BR/><BR/>Commercial real estate is the next to crash, and it has already begun (and this will be a bigger crash than residential because CRE is much more highly leveraged). Retail stores, office buildings, warehouses, etc. are crashing down.<BR/><BR/>Many bank failures on the menu for this year. (The CRE and residential real estate will see to that.)<BR/><BR/>Unemployment will continue to rise for years.<BR/><BR/>Get ready for some tax revolts. (It has already started: California counties are revolting against the state government. The public will soon follow. It's happening in Ireland and the UK too.)<BR/><BR/>Meanwhile government is trying to save Wall St. Why? Wall St. has sucked the life out of Main St. and greatly helped to cause our predicament.<BR/><BR/>Economic history readers know that it was Main St. that made America great. Not Wall St.<BR/><BR/>I'm very happy about all this. I've always wanted a depression / correction to put balance, values and decency back into the American lifestyle.<BR/><BR/>Back to Yankee frugality; the end of suburbia and happy motoring; lawns and backyards being converted to crop gardens; mom and pop stores opening up again; living, working and functioning right where you live; end of materialism; prices of homes and cars equal to incomes; quality on the rise and cheap Wal-Mart/Target/McDonalds gone; people having to have real skills and value to have a job... and they really have to work to earn their salary; etc. etc.<BR/><BR/>This "crisis" is an opportunity for us to get back to basics and balance our lives out.<BR/><BR/>Yippee! This is all good news. The more collapse, the happier I get.<BR/><BR/>An Inquiring MindAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-2549869991629863692009-02-05T09:25:00.000-08:002009-02-05T09:25:00.000-08:00I am sensing that we will see a significant rally ...I am sensing that we will see a significant rally in the markets in the next few months, only to see them drop much more than they already have.<BR/>I also sense the housing markets still have a long way down - at least here in canada.<BR/>The UK is from what I can gather, now bankrupt. <BR/>The bailouts and bad bank stuff are going to fail miserably. I hope I am wrong, but I think I am more correct. <BR/>Maria in CanadaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-91192512149687133202009-02-05T00:13:00.000-08:002009-02-05T00:13:00.000-08:00As an individual you have a right and an obligatio...As an individual you have a right and an obligation to resist the state, no matter who is in charge.<BR/><BR/>The state is an artificial organism that loves to grow bigger and stronger, just like all other organisms in the universe.<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately the state can only grow at the individual's expense.<BR/><BR/>So if one wants to preserve a measure of freedom for his family and for himself, he must resist the state's expansion.<BR/><BR/>The trend portends an increasingly ominous future. The state exploits the current crisis to multiply its size.<BR/><BR/>If we're not yet doomed as free people, we will be. Economic slavery "serfs" us right, sadly.<BR/><BR/>Yet despite the gloom, all hope is not lost for the individual. Change your lifestyle so only require a modest income to live well.<BR/><BR/>It would be difficult for the state or anyone to squeeze a man who lives modestly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-44853180200792222642009-02-04T19:03:00.000-08:002009-02-04T19:03:00.000-08:00Hi JosephI think Anon 1:16 was referring to mankin...Hi Joseph<BR/><BR/>I think Anon 1:16 was referring to mankind as a group. We behave now just like we did 500 years ago. It could be argued that we are more educated today, but I think its wrong to assume that people back many hundreds of year ago were inferior in their economic decisions to the present mortals walking the earth.<BR/><BR/>A lot of books about the mess in the 1930's suggest that it couldn't happen today because we are smarter. I think that is a mistaken assumption. It sounds great and offers implied hope, but I don't buy it.<BR/><BR/>As you have suggested, this part of the blog is an interactive learning experience. I would like to point out that writing has no implied emotion like speech. So now and then what is said can be interpreted in a different light than what it was meant. Its like a little kid saying to mommy " I love you," verses a depraved 95 year old man saying the same thing to the waitress pouring his coffee.<BR/><BR/>Criticism in the true form of the word, means praise the good and point out the bad. You are doing OK, have fun and keep on posting.<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your comments.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-66900829856330244482009-02-04T14:14:00.000-08:002009-02-04T14:14:00.000-08:00Anon 1:16 wrote:Listen, there is nothing new under...Anon 1:16 wrote:<BR/><BR/>Listen, there is nothing new under the sun. It's all been done before. Human nature is what it is...clearly imperfect.<<<<<<BR/><BR/>Sorry, but every second things change. It's called mathematics. Same with people, none are exactly the same. Almost the same, Ah, but those slight differences!<BR/><BR/>By throwing in some science, too, of all human genetic traits, the one which has changed most over time is intelligence. Interesting how so many people during this economic mess want to run away from science, while others want to embrace it.<BR/><BR/>As for your other comments, I don't know whether to take them as compliments or criticisms, and whether Jim thinks they fit or not, really doesn't matter. This board has helped me extend my thoughts as I see them as relates to this financial mess. If I reach just one person, that would be great, but even if I don't, I learn a lot and if not here, somewhere else.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12622023281542158772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-78553430240657726582009-02-04T13:16:00.000-08:002009-02-04T13:16:00.000-08:00Some great thoughts here. Individual rights versu...Some great thoughts here. Individual rights versus the rights of the state. How Greek. <BR/><BR/>Listen, there is nothing new under the sun. It's all been done before. Human nature is what it is...clearly imperfect. And just because someone is diametrically opposed to what you believe, doesn't mean you should shun him. In fact, maybe...just maybe you could learn from him. We have much more in common than we have that distinguishes us (relatively,individualists and communitarians).<BR/><BR/>Stay Joseph and add your thoughts; provided Jim doesn't pull the plug on this experiment.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-155486510272315252009-02-04T10:13:00.000-08:002009-02-04T10:13:00.000-08:00Inquiring Mind wrote:If we as Americans don't ...Inquiring Mind wrote:<BR/><BR/>If we as Americans don't become educated about basic finance and money management (and apply it to our lives first).<<<<BR/><BR/>Believe it or not, such a capability only requires about an eigth grade education.<BR/><BR/>People who are successful handling money, usually began so when they were very young.<BR/><BR/>Plus, it also isn't always about knowledge, a lot depends on how a person values money. Ingrained in people, are certain attitudes about money. Some, think of it as some sort of self-worth, some as security, some as a tool to be independent, some just to buy the newest, coolest things, etc, etc.<BR/><BR/>Heck, look at economists with doctorates. They frequently have radically different opinions after seeing the same data.<BR/><BR/>The basics come much earlier. Plus, a lot has to do with one's family's cultural roots, plus taking advantage of an opportunity when it presents itself. I recommend Malcolm Gladwell's book, "The Outliers". Why are Asians good at math? Gladwell has some interesting thoughts about that. Plus, he lists the wealthiest 75 people in history, adjusted for inflation, including people like Cleopatra. Again, some interesting thoughts.<BR/><BR/>...JosephJoseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12622023281542158772noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-25499569827470206502009-02-03T20:00:00.000-08:002009-02-03T20:00:00.000-08:00Hi Catholic GirlGreat comment, I would disagree th...Hi Catholic Girl<BR/><BR/>Great comment, I would disagree that you need to quit work to retire. The ability to feel like you are contributing to society makes life worthwhile and fulfilling, whether it be church or volunteer work. Otherwise all you have is your coffee mug and the TV, you are ready to be buried in a box. You will find it very boring.<BR/><BR/>When you quit the workforce you lose your feeling of importance and self esteem. Thats just me talking (my opinion from experience).<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your post and take care.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-14096267275423134732009-02-03T19:28:00.000-08:002009-02-03T19:28:00.000-08:00Hi Inquiring MindI knew people who went through th...Hi Inquiring Mind<BR/><BR/>I knew people who went through the Great Depression. That era of history taught a lot on finance to many.<BR/><BR/>Class is about to begin again. Somebody once said "Experience can be a cruel teacher." We as a nation get to learn about finances the hard way.<BR/><BR/>The learning is about to begin whether we like it or not. Are you ready?<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your comments.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-7551901714632465402009-02-03T19:21:00.000-08:002009-02-03T19:21:00.000-08:00Hi Gargamel Welcome to the blog. I guess that comm...Hi Gargamel <BR/><BR/>Welcome to the blog. I guess that common sense is just not that common anymore. You're spot on.<BR/><BR/>Thank you for your comments.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-81375760111147376522009-02-03T19:12:00.000-08:002009-02-03T19:12:00.000-08:00Hi Pissed OffThis is kind of like a death in the f...Hi Pissed Off<BR/><BR/>This is kind of like a death in the family. It will take a while to get over.<BR/><BR/>There is nothing to really change,given time, it will fix itself.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-63614200392412686072009-02-03T16:49:00.000-08:002009-02-03T16:49:00.000-08:00If we as Americans don't become educated about bas...If we as Americans don't become educated about basic finance and money management (and apply it to our lives first). If we don't learn about the economic history of countries and empires of the past. Then we can't envision what the ideal scene for our economy should be, thus we can't see the outpoints and departures that need to be corrected or removed in order to reach the ideal scene. We need to become educated as a nation and then from a point of understanding reform this country via the ballot box.<BR/><BR/>An Inquiring MindAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-88437693964106821112009-02-03T16:04:00.000-08:002009-02-03T16:04:00.000-08:00If people defaulting on debt payments is what caus...If people defaulting on debt payments is what caused us to get int this mess, how could giving them more debt possibly get us out?<BR/><BR/>People already borrowed all they could and now there debt to income is too high.<BR/><BR/>No amount of easy money can cure an illness caused by easy money.<BR/><BR/>Not sure why this isn't obvious.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-76677681247678882422009-02-03T15:47:00.000-08:002009-02-03T15:47:00.000-08:00Catholic Girl this is the comment that I couldn't ...Catholic Girl this is the comment that I couldn't find any disagreement with, and what I believe to be the US greatest resource, their Christian faith! You have had many "floundering fathers" of late to reason that leadership in your country will be the only thing that will bring you thru this! In my humble opinion another great asset America has is its citizens capacity to do great kindness in the world, not your government! Your country is built on individualism that can and does make choices that are vicarious, am I naive or misinformed? I see great hope for your country....frakrakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10110027067402980842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-10547270965783084972009-02-03T15:03:00.000-08:002009-02-03T15:03:00.000-08:00The "messiah" will save us.The "messiah" will save us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-17893879618680971562009-02-03T14:22:00.000-08:002009-02-03T14:22:00.000-08:00I'm not surprised Joseph worked in the computer bi...I'm not surprised Joseph worked in the computer biz. He really likes Windows :)<BR/><BR/>Re: optimism/pessimism -- those are concepts that describe a person's emotions. They don't describe anything objective. Was it Mark Twain who said "Some people see the glass as half full. Others see it as half empty. I just see a glass that's twice as big as it needs to be."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-22186411617630270892009-02-03T14:00:00.000-08:002009-02-03T14:00:00.000-08:00wow retirement bashing...I gotta tell ya, it may n...wow retirement bashing...<BR/>I gotta tell ya, it may not be for everyone<BR/>but I would consider it a joy..<BR/>first, as a nurse, i can tell ya that 1/2 of<BR/>us are going to be dead by 78 and the<BR/>other half will start having some health problems in their 50s and significant health problems in their 60s...<BR/>so being able to have the time to schedule all the doctor's appts might be nice...<BR/>and if I could have 15 years of productive time for ME that would be great...<BR/>sleep in till 8am...have coffee...have time to keep my home clean and cook as I like...church activities...grandchildren activities...volunteering...and yes, golf....gardening...oh come on...there is more to life than work...people...<BR/>also keep in mind that the majority of us have jobs we can't do into our later years...my back aches now...try being a nurse for more than 40 years...62 for me<BR/>we don't put on a suit and sit at a desk all day- alot of us have jobs that are physically exhausting...and we will need retirement...<BR/>besides...we have to step aside so our children can have those productive jobs...for a smaller population...<BR/>retirement just may be about MORE downsizing than we thought...( and a little part time easier job supplement )<BR/>but I would rather live in a cute little one bedroom at 70 and be able to enjoy my creative self my last few years than to kill myself till the end...<BR/>we don't need as much as we think we do in our older years- shelter-food-meds-wine (if we are graced by God to be able to drink and not have it interact with our new med regime)<BR/>and family and friends...<BR/>RETIREMENT PLAN- pay off all debt possible as soon as possible...<BR/>so unlike some of you, I intend to still ask God for this wonderful gift- I am not giving up on this dream...<BR/>not yet... <BR/>Catholic girl <BR/>PS I know most of the world does not live this lifestyle- I am not unaware- but you know, it is HUMANE and it is the way the world should work...and it is American... we aren't socialist- we don't owe our last drop of blood to the state...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-32377534153586463402009-02-03T12:45:00.000-08:002009-02-03T12:45:00.000-08:00Thank you Joseph, that gives a little more perspec...Thank you Joseph, that gives a little more perspective on I.B., I think I maybe at a point of “outing” my conspiratorial side here, but will keep it under wraps! The US is still the only game to focus on, we have a saying in this country “America sneezes and we get pneumonia!” nothing like self interest eh? The US still has another recourse that makes it unique in the world, so I don’t think it is game over. On a personal note (hope you don’t mind Jim) the USAF saved my meager life about 30 years ago, so the term “big brother” is said with a certain amount of fondness in referring to your country……frakrakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10110027067402980842noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-34334686514608126962009-02-03T12:39:00.000-08:002009-02-03T12:39:00.000-08:00Anon 11:28Although I disagree with everything Jose...Anon 11:28<BR/><BR/>Although I disagree with everything Joseph has to say I do think he belongs on this site. It is the don't worry be happy crowd that will be burning tires in the streets when the shan hits the fit. I doubt Joseph is going to change his point of view. If he is right then great but I'm not going to hold my breath...<BR/><BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/><BR/>RobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com