tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post3735705594178816978..comments2024-02-29T03:21:35.007-08:00Comments on The Great Depression of 2006 : The New Housing Bubble in CaliforniaJim in San Marcoshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-20680164147324138122014-07-21T21:24:12.555-07:002014-07-21T21:24:12.555-07:00The 8:27 poster wants to include appreciation on a...The 8:27 poster wants to include appreciation on a house in a bubble market? Good luck with that plan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-60103973435646783242014-07-19T21:01:34.195-07:002014-07-19T21:01:34.195-07:00BTW,Jim, the company that pays my pension just off...BTW,Jim, the company that pays my pension just offered me a lump sum payout. I will likely take it and rollover to an IRA, into an insured CD.<br /><br />So, I do see the current bond and stock market booms as a way for pension funds to reduce their risks.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-6039372403149388812014-07-17T18:56:21.951-07:002014-07-17T18:56:21.951-07:00Hi Joseph
I agree with you 100 percent. I didn...Hi Joseph<br /><br />I agree with you 100 percent. I didn't mean to impugn your investment strategy, only point out the error made in 1929 by retirees.<br /><br />I'm 68 and I don't think even with a crash, that the aftermath of 1929 will project out today, for one reason, all governments are printing money. I very seriously entertain the idea that our retirement plans, what ever they may be, could collapse from underfunding and a black swan event.<br /><br />I am a firm believer that people act with a herd mentality, buy what they don't want, and you'll be able to sell it back to them when it comes back in fashion.<br /><br />There are two ways to get rich, the fast way or the slow way, I think you and I will make it the slow way, and as long as you get there, that is all that counts.<br /><br />Take care.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-31873112800740479072014-07-17T08:04:15.890-07:002014-07-17T08:04:15.890-07:00My main point was buying QUALITY in 1929. And, sta...My main point was buying QUALITY in 1929. And, staying out of debt. All crashes do for such people are provide bargains.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-36500706502155992412014-07-16T21:17:10.219-07:002014-07-16T21:17:10.219-07:00Hi Joseph
One thing that was pointed out to me by...Hi Joseph<br /><br />One thing that was pointed out to me by writers of the time, was that many people were retiring in 1929.<br /><br />So you are right, in assuming if you held on, you would have been made whole by 1953, the trouble is many of these people didn't live to see the year 1940.<br /><br />Their retirement plans were not quite what they had planned.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-6923234309540216842014-07-16T21:10:06.826-07:002014-07-16T21:10:06.826-07:00Hi dearieme
Thank you for the link on the last po...Hi dearieme<br /><br />Thank you for the link on the last post. <br /><br />I tend to agree, but the Fed is getting to the point where more money has less and less influence on the economy.<br /><br />And as you suggest, they may go to the well one too many times.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-14961200802561763712014-07-16T21:04:23.064-07:002014-07-16T21:04:23.064-07:00Hi Anon 8:27
You build a house and you think it i...Hi Anon 8:27<br /><br />You build a house and you think it is worth more as it ages? Technically you can sell it for more many years later, but that is just the ravages of inflation.<br /><br />I don't see anyone bragging about how gas prices have gone from 25 cents a gallon to $4 a gallon.<br /><br />Who cares if you throw your money into the interest maelstrom of the banks and at the same time get a tax deduction. You are only choosing which trash can you are throwing your dollars in.<br /><br />Under the present economic conditions, tax savings and appreciation are about nill. But the return on RE with the banks paying one half percent makes real estate a very good return at 5 percent, but it is still way below historical norms of 20 percent. The risk is extremely high for very little gain.Jim in San Marcoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09435296419912935381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-11586234558725616072014-07-15T20:27:57.402-07:002014-07-15T20:27:57.402-07:00Your 21k vs 40k argument doesn't take into acc...<br />Your 21k vs 40k argument doesn't take into account tax savings and appreciation, classic bias type of writing you do. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-49827092674485671432014-07-13T20:17:16.877-07:002014-07-13T20:17:16.877-07:00People who do the best in great or bad times are t...People who do the best in great or bad times are the rich, because it's not about speculating, but capital preservation and contentment to earn just modest income returns on investments. And, only buying quality assets.<br /><br />Sure, some rich will gamble, but not most.<br /><br />So, easy, just copy the rich. Don't have the money? Save and live frugally....and only buy quality....most importantly, don't go into debt.<br /><br /><br />As for now, I agree about how derivatives are the biggest danger. I see some stuff unreasonably inflated, but also see some quality stuff reasonably priced.<br /><br />So, many will get hurt, but also some will do very well. People have a choice.<br /><br />Don't forget, those who bought quality, even in 1929, with cash, did wonderfully if held on long term.Joseph Oppenheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09037175611181710409noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27697009.post-80134357456408356032014-07-13T11:12:59.192-07:002014-07-13T11:12:59.192-07:00"will the Fed throw in the towel"? I..."will the Fed throw in the towel"? I'm confident that the Fed will throw in the towel repeatedly, on one topic or another, until finally catastrophe arrives. I expect that the catastrophe is more likely to be by an inflation rather than a default, but you never know. There will certainly be elements of default: many a political promise will be broken, many a generations-long assumption shattered.<br /><br />Of course, there must be a possibility that when the Fed wants to run a serious inflation it will find that it can't get one going. God spare us all.deariemenoreply@blogger.com